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Blake’s Best Bets: Week One (Saturday/Sunday/Monday)

Blakey Locks

If you haven’t read Part 1 of BBB Week One and want to bet Friday’s games click here.

Thursday night already got us some great action. Some good bets, some bad. No extra points in OT screw us out of Wake Forest, but we’ll take the push at -6. I’ll update my weekly record in Part One of the next week all season so you can be sure the winners are here.

Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina (-29) o/u 57

My Gamecocks open their season with a major cupcake game. I know a lot of the people reading this are my South Carolina followers so don’t get mad… but I’ve been on this Coastal line since Week One lines came out. South Carolina-Georgia is Week Two and it’s as close to a must-win as you can have in Week Two for the Cocks. I am very very high on South Carolina this season, and I think this Carolina offense is going to come out and smack Coastal in the face. Then I’m assuming Boom will sit the starters, at least Jake Bentley, for a lot of the second half so they’re fresh for UGA weekend. Because of this I also like the under. Coastal will maybe score 14 and Carolina won’t put up more than 42 which would still keep us under. South Carolina wins easily, but Coastal gets the late cover.

Pick: CC +29, u57

Ole Miss @ Texas Tech (-2.5) o/u 67

I’m going to preface this by letting everybody know that I always lean SEC bias in these games. I try not to but shit happens. I don’t even need any stats for why I’m against Texas Tech. They just stink. But I like Ole Miss this year too. They’re not going to do anything great just because the SEC West is so brutal. However, I love their QB Jordan Ta’amu. Hawaiian quarterbacks are hot in the streets right now, and this dual threat kid is very good. This line opened at Ole Miss -1.5 and it moved all the way to +2.5 for Ole Miss. I don’t really get why people are so in on Texas Tech. I’m not.

Pick: Ole Miss +2.5 (wait and see if you can find a 3 somewhere)

Maryland vs. Texas (neutral site) (-13.5) o/u 52.5

Big time revenge spot for Texas. These two matched up to open the season last year and Maryland pulled a huge upset. Texas is returning 76% of its offensive production from last season and I have faith in Tom Herman to have this team ready. Meanwhile, the Maryland program is in complete disarray. Between coaching/revenge/returning production/mental readiness Texas seems like a clear spot here.

Pick: Texas -13.5

Washington vs. Auburn (neutral site) (-2) 0/u 48

I’m really not hard on either side. I have futures on Auburn and Washington this season so I’m not personally taking action on this game. However, since it’s the marquee game of the weekend I thought I would put a pick out there. I love both QBs in this game, I love both coaches, I love both defenses. Auburn gets a little bump because the game is in Atlanta, but honestly when it comes to the QBs I’m more confident in Jake Browning than Jarrett Stidham in a big spot. Both will have great years, but I like the experience on Washington a little more. They’re ranked 22nd in returning production compared to Auburn’s 47 ranking. Really great game hopefully, but that’s my lean.

Pick: Washington +2

Michigan @ Notre Dame (-1.5) o/u 47

The other premier game of the weekend. Is Notre Dame BACK for the 10th season in a row? Can Jim Harbaugh still not win the big one at Michigan? So much to unpack, but for me this one isn’t that hard. Both teams are returning a ton on defense, but have some question marks on offense. Obviously, Shea Patterson getting the nod at QB for Michigan will determine a lot of this. The Ole Miss transfer has the talent to be the guy, but Jim Harbaugh needs to let him sling it. I think it will take him a couple weeks to figure out the system. I’m a little higher on ND as a team regardless, and with them at home I think it’s a safe bet. Also that stat in the tweet above. Can’t bet against that.

Pick: Notre Dame -115 ML

Miami vs. LSU (neutral site) +3.5, o/u 47

We have Sunday night college football folks. This one is pretty tough for me too. Again, like Washington-Auburn I don’t really have a bet I love but for the opposite reason. I’m very low on both of these teams. I think we will see regression from Miami. A lot of their takeaways last year (as much fun as the chain was) have to be partially contributed to luck. LSU is 122nd in returning production from an already disappointing team that lost to Troy. Neither of these teams catch my eye really. If the number was below 3 I would be on Miami but I don’t like the 3.5. If I’m taking any bet it’ll be the under. LSU might not reach double digits in this game.

Picks: Miami -3 (buying the hook), u47

Virginia Tech @ FSU (-7.5) o/u 55.5

Then we have Monday night football!!! What an amazing long weekend we’ve been blessed with and what should be a great game to wrap it up. If you read my futures preview you know I love VT. I have them as a dark horse to win the entire ACC this season. Florida State is ranked 120th in returning production on defense and I am not sold on Deondre Francois at QB. In Week One matchups my favorite things to look at are returning production and if they have a returning Head Coach/QB duo. VT has much stronger returning production and are in their second year with QB Josh Jackson coming off a strong freshman season along with coach Justin Fuente. A new head coach and QB at FSU makes me nervous especially with the key number favoring Tech.

Pick: VT +7.5

Best of luck my friends. Week One is always tough as we get a real feel for teams, but hopefully some or all of these winners will help you indulge more heavily on Labor Day Weekend. Tweet me @BlakeKrass if you have any questions about specific bets or have tips of your own.

Let’s get rich.

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