There are two types of teams capable of stealing NCAA tournament bids. The first is a standout team in what is expected to be a one-bid conference losing in its conference tournament and suddenly landing on the bubble. Schools such as Loyola (Chicago) and South Dakota State fit the bill. The other is a major conference team that has hung on the periphery of relevance all season and could build a strong enough case with a hot streak in its conference tournament. Think Nebraska and Washington. Let’s take a look at the top 5 teams (in no particular order) under-the-radar teams that could make this possible.
1. New Mexico State: 24-5 (11-2 WAC)
New Mexico State had a strong case for an at-large bid before losing back-to-back conference games to Utah
Valley and Seattle earlier this month. Now things get a bit trickier if the Aggies don’t win their conference tournament, as the WAC is traditionally a one-bid league. But a neutral-site win against Miami is the headliner on their resume, and they also beat Davidson, UC Irvine, and Illinois in non-conference play. A defense that ranks No. 11 in the nation according to KenPom could also be a chip in their favor if the selection committee digs that deep.
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The Aggies have rallied from that brief two-game losing streak to win their last two conference games, and they should have no problem in the regular-season finale against Texas-Rio Grande (222). Still, it’s the same story as the other small conference schools on this list—anything short of a trip to the conference title game ends their tourney hopes.
2. Loyola-Chicago: 25-5 (15-3 MVC)
A non-conference loss to UW-Milwaukee is a black eye on their resume and the Ramblers also dropped early conference tilts to Missouri State (shoutout Cody, go Bears) and Indiana State. The Ramblers announced themselves as a team to watch with a 65-59 victory over a Florida team that was ranked No. 5 in the AP poll at the time. They also made the most of their weak conference schedule, picking up two wins each against quality Illinois State and Southern Illinois squads. Will conference dominance and one marquee win be enough to get them an at-large if they fall short in the Missouri Valley tournament?
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After a 1-2 start in conference, they’ve gone 14-1 in their last 15 games to emerge as the clear leader in the MVC and a legitimate bubble team. Still, they’ll at least need to reach the conference title game to avoid that bubble being burst.
3. Louisiana-Lafayette: 25-4 (15-1 Sun Belt)
The strength of schedule is a dagger for the Ragin’ Cajuns and admittedly makes the team a long shot to be included in the field if it fails to win the Sun Belt Conference tournament. The Ragin’ Cajuns played just two RPI top-100 teams all season, losing to Clemson by 29 points on the road and Wyoming by nine at a neutral site. Considering they’ve only lost four games this season. Aside from the two above defeats, they were beaten handily by Ole Miss and lost against Sun Belt No. 2 seed Georgia State on the road, so they don’t have any terrible losses. Non-conference wins against Southland Conference leader Nicholls and Iowa are also at least worthy of a mention.
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Momentum is on their side considering they’ve gone 15-1 in conference play, and they’ll be the overwhelming favorites to win the Sun Belt tournament. They’ll at least need to reach the title game to keep their slim at-large hopes alive if they don’t end up winning it all.
4. South Dakota State: 25-6 (13-1 Summit)
South Dakota State only has one top-50 victory this season, which makes it pa
rticularly tough to build an at-large resume, especially considering their strength of schedule. A neutral-site win against Buffalo and a home win against conference rival South Dakota highlight a resume that also includes a non-conference road win against Ole Miss and a neutral-site win over Iowa. Those would seem to fall under the good-not-great category if I say so myself. A tournament team the past two seasons and four of the last six, the Jackrabbits are no strangers to March Madness. They also have the luxury of being able to lean on star junior Mike Daum (23.6 PPG & 42.4% 3PT), one of the nation’s best mid-major players. While they may not have a marquee win, they do have some big-game experience, as they played Wichita State tough in a 95-85 loss and also faced Kansas in November.
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The Jackrabbits are 18-2 in their last 20 games, with their only losses coming on the road against Colorado and South Dakota. A loss to anyone other than South Dakota in the conference tournament would put an end to their slim at-large hopes.
5. St. Bonaventure: 23-6 (13-4 A-10)
A rough stretch of games at the start of conference play saw St. Bonaventure go 2-4, including losses to Dayton and Saint Joseph’s. The Bonnies also lost their season opener at home to Niagara by two points. Add to that the fact that eight of their wins are against teams outside the RPI top-200, with five more outside the top-150, and there’s a lot of filler on their resume. There might be filler on their resume, but as evidenced by an RPI of 21, there’s also a lot of meat. They split with fellow A-10 contenders Rhode Island and Davidson while also picking up road wins against Buffalo and Syracuse. Plus neutral-site wins against Vermont and Maryland, and a hom
e win against Northeastern.
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The Bonnies are tied for the second-longest winning streak at 11 games. They also just beat a good Davidson team in a thrilling triple-overtime game Tuesday night. That kind of win can pull a team together for a big stretch run. They still can’t afford to lose in the first round of the A-10 tournament, but there’s no question they’ve already built a strong resume for an at-large bid.
