Brett Seelig

After an incredibly pedestrian week 11 that saw the top 10 go undefeated, there’s one thing college football fans (minus fans of Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Michigan of course), are craving heading into week 12.

Chaos! We want it! We NEED it! Please College Football, do what you’re best at this week.

i neeeeed it spongebob
College Football Chaos.

On paper, week 12 looks like the perfect week for the top 10 to go undefeated (again). This week is the final nonconference week. The annual celebration where college football’s best take a break from their grueling conference play to kick their feet up and beat nobodies by 40.  This year most teams are taking part.

No. 1 Alabama vs. Citadel. Check.

No. 5 Georgia (-41) vs. Umass. Check.

No. 7 LSU (-42) vs. 1-9 Rice. CHECK!!!

Even teams who aren’t playing out of conference will look to satisfy their sweet tooth.

No. 6 Oklahoma (-35.5) vs. Kansas. Check.

No. 4 Michigan (-28) vs. Indiana. Check…(I think)

No. 2 Clemson (-28) vs. Duke. Check (Probably).

If there ever was a week for chaos to be absent this would be the one. Except last week had no chaos… There can’t be two chaos-less weeks in a row right?? I sure hope not.

Games to Watch

Tulane at Houston (-9.5) (Thursday 8:00 ESPN)

Both teams are tied atop the AAC West with SMU (5-5, 4-2). Houston (7-3, 4-2) has lost two in a row while Tulane (5-5, 4-2) has won three in a row. Houston has scored 31 points or more in every game this season. While the TNF game is on a commercial flip over to this one.

Memphis (-8.5) at SMU (Friday 9:00 ESPN2)

In a week lacking high-profile matchups, there are a lot of good mid-level matchups with division title implications. In a suddenly jumbled AAC West, both teams are back in the running for a division title. SMU (5-5, 4-2) leads the division after being two games back just two weeks ago. The Mustangs, averaging 53.5ppg over their last two games, are led by record-breaking quarterback Ben Hicks. Memphis (6-4, 3-3) also has won two in a row and still has a home date with Houston so the Tigers can make up some ground in their final two games. The Tigers are led by running back Darrell Henderson who is second in the nation in rushing yards with 1,446 and first in YPC among players with at least 100 carries with 9.2 YPC. Memphis is 1-3 on the road. Not the worst way to spend a Friday night.

Pitt (-7) at Wake Forest (Noon ACCN)

Pitt (6-4, 5-1) has a stranglehold on the ACC Coastal. Just like the experts predicted. All the Panthers have to do is not lose their last two conference games (at Wake & at Miami) and Pitt will get rewarded with a date against No. 2 Clemson. Both of those games won’t be easy though starting with Saturday afternoon in Winston Salem. Wake Forest (5-5, 2-4) can score with Pitt and will be confident after knocking off No. 14 NC State on the road last week. The Panthers have won four of five, with the only loss being by five to No. 3 Notre Dame, since getting blown out by No. 11 UCF so confidence won’t be an issue either for Pitt. Running backs Qadree Ollison (1,054 yards, 10 TDs) and Darrin Hall (844 yards, 8 TDs) are the playmakers for the Panthers.

No. 12 Syracuse vs. No. 3 Notre Dame (-10) (2:30 NBC)

See below.

No. 9 West Virginia (-5) at Oklahoma St (3:30 ABC)

See below.

No. 25 UAB at Texas A&M (-16) (7:00 ESPN2)

One team is ranked and it’s not the team with Jimbo Fisher as head coach, but rather Bill Clark, the likely national coach of the year.

Just two years ago the Blazers were without a football program after it was shut down by higher-ups leaving over 100 players suddenly without a team. Many players, coaches and staff members left and who could blame them? They were without a job. A few people decided to stay. One of them: head coach Bill Clark.

Fast forward two years and UAB is not just playing games again, but the Blazers are 9-1 (7-0) C-USA West Champions after an 8-5 season and a bowl berth in 2017. One of the greatest stories in college football in recent history has the chance to add a major chapter to the ballad this Saturday. A win over the Aggies would give UAB its first 10-win season in program history and vault the Blazers up the rankings by beating a quality SEC team.

UAB leads the nation in sacks with 38, is third in total defense (262 YDS/G) and is fourth in ppg, giving up just 13.2. A ranked UAB squad will have Texas A&M’s attention so the Aggies shouldn’t be caught sleep-walking though.  I would not be surprised if UAB has success early but the Blazer’s average offense (44th in YDS/G with 433 & 39th in scoring with 33.1) won’t be able to keep up with a Texas A&M offense averaging over 40ppg at home.

Matchup to watch: Texas A&M’s “12th Man” vs. UAB’s offense. 

No. 24 Cincy at No. 11 UCF (8:00 ABC)

Orlando, Florida will be the heart of the college football universe this weekend. After UCF Twitter has clamored for more respect all season (rightfully so, 22 games ain’t no joke people), College Gameday will be making its first-ever trip to Central Florida to see undefeated No. 11 UCF take on No. 24 Cincinnati. 

One of just three games involving ranked teams, Saturday night’s primetime matchup between the Bearcats and the Knights (not Golden Knights) is more than just a consolation prize for UCF and the Group of Five. Both teams are legit and the winner has a great shot at going to the AAC Championship Game and making it to a New Year’s Six bowl game.

A win by UCF would clinch a second-straight AAC East title, give the Knights a wildly elusive top 25 win, put the nations longest win streak at 23 and allow UCF to go up in the polls depending on how the top 10 fares.

A Cincinnati win would create a three-way tie for first place in the division (assuming Temple (6-4, 5-1) beats South Florida (7-3, 3-3) on Saturday), and would really complicate things in the AAC as well as in the Group of Five. A Bearcats win could very well make Cincy the highest-ranked AAC team, meaning the American likely wouldn’t have the highest-ranked Group of Five team after week 12 (Utah State).

The Bearcats are stingy on defense. Coming into week 12, Cincy is 7th in scoring defense (14.9ppg) and 6th in YDS/G (278). In their only loss of the season (24-17 OT at Temple), the Bearcats had given up just 217 yards and 10 points (all off turnovers) with less than five minutes remaining. The issue was the offense which managed just over 300 yards for the game and is currently 35th in YDS/G (448) and 29th in scoring offense (35ppg).

UCF’s strength is easily its offense. The Knights are 3rd in the nation in YDS/G (543) and 8th in scoring offense (44.2ppg). Though the defense is inconsistent at best, the Knights are 28th in scoring defense (21.2ppg) which is great for a team with a top 10 offense, however, 91st in YDS/G is troubling (424). 

Matchup to watch: UCF’s high-powered offense against Cincinnati’s top 10 defense. If this game is in the 20s or low 30s it’ll be a close one. If it turns into a track meet…UCF by 10+. 


Game of the Week: No. 12 Syracuse vs. No. 3 Notre Dame (-10)

Syracuse (8-2, 5-2) is having its best season since the days of Donovan McNabb and has a legitimate shot at derailing the Fighting Irish’s CFP hopes. The Orange’s only losses have been against the two teams that likely will meet in the ACC Championship Game, No. 2 Clemson 27-24 and Pitt 44-37 in OT. Syracuse is led by quarterback Eric Dungey (over 2800 total yards, 26 total TDs).

Notre Dame (10-0) is having a magical season that includes a very valuable win over No. 4 Michigan. Quarterback Ian Book has been terrific since stepping in for Brandon Wimbush and has the Fighting Irish possibly two games from a CFP berth. Although Notre Dame is undefeated, has knocked off possibly three Power Five division champs (Michigan, Northwestern & Pitt) and three ranked teams (Michigan, Stanford & Virginia Tech) only one has fewer than four losses. Syracuse is the second best team Notre Dame has played all year. Remember this game is played at Yankee Stadium.

game of the weak: uconn randy “ehh”dsals  (1-9, 0-6) at least carolina (2-7, 0-6)

Uconn’s 130th-ranked scoring defense (49.3 ppg) vs. East Carolina’s 106th-ranked scoring offense (23.2ppg). 

Uconn’s 101st- ranked scoring offense (23.8 ppg) vs. East Carolina’s 107th-ranked scoring defense (34.8ppg). 

Should be a close one. 

Upset Pick of the Week: Oklahoma State over No. 9 West Virginia (-5) 38-35

This could be the game of the day. The Mountaineers (8-1, 6-1) have looked great since getting embarrassed on the road against Iowa State, coming in on a three-game winning streak. Will Grier and company can’t get caught looking ahead to next week’s monumental matchup against Oklahoma. The fact the Cowboys’ average over 42 points per game at home should have the Mountaineers attention.

Oklahoma State (5-5, 2-5) has had a disappointing year that has included losses to Kansas State (4-6, 2-5), Texas Tech (5-5, 3-4) and Baylor (5-5, 3-4) but has also seen the Cowboys knock off two top 25 teams, No. 17 Boise State 44-21 and No. 6 Texas 38-35.

Mike Gundy and crew are coming off a gut-wrenching 48-47 loss at No. 6 Oklahoma, a game where the Cowboys missed a PAT and later a two-point try. Still though, losing by a point on the road against Oklahoma should give the Cowboys confidence they can get the job done at home against arguably a worse team in West Virginia.

SuperDogs:

  1. Middle Tennessee State (+16) vs. No. 17 Kentucky 
  2. Indiana (+28) at No. 4 Michigan 
  3. Arizona (+9.5) at No. 8 Washington State 
  4. Oregon State (+33.5) at No. 17 Washington
  5. Liberty (+27) at Auburn

Picks

  1. Buffalo at Ohio                                                       Ohio 38-35*
  2. Tulane at Houston (-9.5)                                       Houston 45-31**
  3. No.25 Boise State (-19.5) at New Mexico            Boise 38-17***
  4. Memphis (-8.5) at SMU                                         SMU 34-27***
  5. No. 10 Ohio St. (-14) at Maryland                         Ohio St 34-17
  6. No. 14 Penn St (-27) at Rutgers                              Penn St 45-14
  7. MTSU at No. 17 Kentucky (-16)                              Kent   24-17
  8. Arkansas at No. 21 Mississippi St (-20)                 Miss St   31-20
  9. No. 22 NW (-2.5) at Minnesota                             Minnesota 24-20
  10. South Florida at Temple (-13)                                  Temple 38-31
  11. Michigan St (-2) at Nebraska                                 Neb 31-27
  12. Pitt (-7) at Wake Forest                                            Wake 38-35
  13. No. 19 Utah (-7) at Colorado                                       Utah 27-21
  14. No. 23 Utah St (-28) at Colorado St                            USU 38-27
  15. No. 12 Syr at No. 3 Notre Dame (-11)                        ND 34-24
  16. No. 9 WVU (-5) at Oklahoma St                               Okla St 38-35****
  17. No. 20 BC (-1.5) at FSU                                                  BC 31-27
  18. Indiana at No. 4 Michigan (-28)                                  Michigan 31-21
  19. Umass at No. 5 Georgia (-41)                                        UGA 45-10
  20. Liberty at Auburn (-27)                                                  Aub  35-21
  21. Oregon St at No. 18 Washington (-32)                         Washington 38-14
  22. Duke at No. 2 Clemson (-28)                                          Clem 45-14
  23. No. 25 UAB at Texas A&M (-16)                                     A&M 35-17
  24. Kansas at No. 6 Oklahoma (-35.5)                                 Okla 52-24
  25. Rice at No. 7 LSU (-42)                                                      LSU 38-7
  26. No. 24 Cincy at No. 11 UCF                                              UCF 45-28
  27. No. 16 Iowa St at No. 15 Texas (-3)                                 Texas 31-24
  28. Arizona at No. 8 Wazzu (-9.5)                                          Wazzu 34-30
  29. SDST at Fresno St (-12.5)                                                 SDST 27-24

*Wednesday Night

**Thursday Night

***Friday Night

Bold means upset

****Upset pick of the week

YTD Record

Straight up: 230-105           ATS: 166-162-8

Upsets (straight up): 17-32   Upsets (ATS): 21-26-2