Clemson-LSU Betting Guide
This National Championship of Clemson-LSU Betting Guide will be filled with some very educated opinions, as well as some wild guesses. LSU and Clemson is one of the more high-profile match ups that we have had in awhile in a title game. Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow and his Tigers come into New Orleans as 6-point favorites. The defending National Champion Clemson Tigers await them in the Superdome on Monday night in the toughest matchup they have had all season. LSU is the public sweetheart, but should you be leaning towards Clemson? I will tell you in this Clemson-LSU Betting Guide
Team to Call Timeout First (Both Teams -120)
Let’s start out with the most random line I could find on Bovada. Both teams are -120 for who calls a timeout first, so I decided to dig into these numbers. This season Clemson has called a first-quarter timeout just once, while LSU has five times. Clemson used 1.64 timeouts per first half to LSU’s 1.79 timeouts per first half this year. Both of these, as well as the fact that LSU is the less-experienced team in big-game situations, lead me to believe that LSU will end up burning the first time out of the evening.
The Pick: LSU -120 to Take First Timeout
First TD of the Game
There are multiple players who are a decent value to score first today. The listed favorites are Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Justin Jefferson, both at +600. I would maybe sprinkle a small amount on either on of these as Edwards-Helaire had two of LSU’s first touchdowns this season while Jefferson had three.
My favorite bet here is Ja’Marr Chase. Chase has scored the first touchdown for the Tigers in five of their 14 games this year and is +800.
On the Clemson side, Amari Rodgers may be the best value pick. Rodgers scored the first touchdown for Clemson twice this year and is currently listed at +2500 after his quiet performance in the Fiesta Bowl. The best value may honestly be “The Field”. This would include Travis Etienne, Trevor Lawrence, and Tee Higgins. These three accounted for ten of Clemson’s first touchdowns across their 14 games this year. This may be the best chance to cash-in, especially if you believe Clemson will score first.
The Picks: The Field (+700), Ja’Marr Chase (+800), Amari Rodgers (+2500)
The Matchup: Clemson-LSU Betting Guide
Coming into this breakdown, I expected to be picking LSU, as I probably should have. Upon doing this research, I am actually unsure how Clemson is the underdog, especially by six points. Let’s start by looking in the trenches.
This may be Clemson’s best offensive line they have had during this dynasty. They rank 1st in Line Yards, Std. Down Line Yards, Passing Down Line Yards, and Opp Rate. LSU’s DL ranks 20th, 42nd, 6th, and 38th in these situations for comparison. Across the nine front seven categories listed on Football Outsiders, Clemson’s OL has the advantage on eight of the nine metrics.
On the other side, it is closer, but Clemson still has the advantage. They rank higher than LSU in seven of the nine categories in this matchup.
Through the trenches it appears that Clemson has the advantage, but let’s take a look at the other matchups we would see.
LSU Offense Vs. Clemson Defense
Everything for LSU revolves around QB Joe Burrow. Burrow passed for 5,208 yards, 55 TDs, 6 INTs, and a 204.6 passer rating this season in route to cementing himself as the number one overall pick in this spring’s NFL Draft. If he can keep his numbers where he is at, Burrow could set the single season records for both passer rating, as well as completion percentage, as he currently sits at 77.6% for the year.
These teams are honestly the same in many metrics. I was able to isolate some of the metrics that have some predictive value and that also differed enough between the two teams to where there may be some edge.
Despite how prolific LSU’s historic offense has been, Clemson’s defense absolutely has the ability to hold their own. Brent Venables’ unit has been the best in the country in points per play and yards per pass, as well as top ten in all of the above metrics. Joe Burrow and company may not struggle to move the ball, but they will be tested like they haven’t been before by the likes of Isaiah Simmons and company. The rushing game would be the most likely option to be bottled up and with the disparity in sack rates, I wouldn’t be shocked to see LSU in multiple third and long situations in which Clemson will be able to force pressure on Burrow and deliver a few sacks.
Clemson Offense vs. LSU Defense
On the other side of the ball, Trevor Lawrence threw for 3,431 yards, 36 TDs, and 8 interceptions in his sophomore year. While he wasn’t as spectacular as Burrow, he was still one of the top quarterbacks in the country in his first full season starting. Travis Etienne anchors one of the top rushing games in the nation and put up 1,536 yards and 18 TDs on 8.0 yards per carry. Justyn Ross and Tee Higgins are the two leading receivers on this team, creating a tandem that rivals any duo in the country. If LSU has the most talented offense in the country, Clemson has the second-most talented at a minimum.
Once again, the matchup appears to favor Clemson. They rank among the most efficient offenses in country while LSU has a good, but not great defense.
LSU is the favorite, but all of the numbers here seem to point towards Clemson. SP+ has LSU as a three points favorite, but my AGI model has Clemson as a four point favorite and FPI gives Clemson a 55.8% chance to win. There are enough metrics pointing towards a Clemson cover that I am comfortable taking them plus the points, as well as adding in some moneyline action.
The Picks: Clemson +6 (-110), Clemson ML +180
Winning Margin
As stated before, I believe Clemson will cover and win this game. I don’t expect a blowout similar to last year’s performance, but I think that they should win by 12 points or less.
The Picks: Clemson by 1-6 (+350), Clemson by 7-12 (+475)
Total Points
With the advantages that Clemson’s defense has, as well as the already inflated points total, I would lean towards an under play on this game. The game will likely remain close through the first half while I believe that Clemson will outscore LSU in the second half.
While both team’s splits have been similar all year for first-half numbers, LSU’s second-half numbers stand out. Sure, LSU maybe hasn’t been as great in the second-half because they have been blowing teams out. However, Clemson has been nearly just as dominant and is also notorious for playing depth players in blowouts, yet their numbers are much more stable. This is the point of the game where I believe Dabo and Clemson will take over. As he showed against Ohio State, Dabo is able to make the necessary adjustments to win the game. I believe that is what will happen here as well.
The Picks: Total Points Under 67.5 (-110), LSU under 37.5 (-120), Clemson +0.5 3rd Quarter (-105)
LSU Player Props
I think that Ja’Marr Chase balls out tonight, solely because I believe him to be the best weapon Burrow has to throw to, with no disrepect to anyone else. Chase has had 100+ receving yards in eight games this year and I believe he can eclipse this again. Terrace Marshall Jr. is dealing with a shoulder injury, but is expected to play. With seven games this season of four catches or more, I believe that he will be able to pick up a few quick catches and at least push on this total.
I promise I don’t hate Joe Burrow, but the numbers on him are rather inflated tonight. Clemson has not allowed a passer to go over 372.5 passing yards against them since November of 2018 and I don’t believe that Burrow will be able to muster that tonight. The same goes for being able to throw 5 TDs or rush for 30.5. I think that Clemson’s defense is too athletic and should be able to neutralize much of Burrow’s game.
The Picks: Ja’Marr Chase Rec. Yds. Over 99.5 (-120), Terrace Marshall Jr. Receptions Over 4 (-120), Joe Burrow Passing Yds. Under 372.5 (-145), Burrow TD Passes Under 4.5 (-170), Burrow Rush Yds. Under 30.5 (-105)
Clemson Player Props
This was a tough pick as I believe Derek Stingley Jr. and Kristian Fulton to be the best CB combination in the country. Put those two guys with Thorpe Award winner Grant Delpit and you have secondary that is not to be messed with. Tee Higgins is a different animal though. Higgins has exceeded 86.5 yards in five games this season, including 182 in the ACC Championship against Virginia.
I also believe that Travis Etienne has the potential for a monster game tonight, but likely not as a receiver. Etienne has not exceeded four receptions once this year and has only went over 45.5 receiving yards twice. In fact, he has never had more than four receptions in a game in his college career! I would hammer these two numbers. Not to be entirely out on Etienne, I think that he will go off in the rushing department and rack up over 94.5 yards. He has done this eight times this year and I believe the biggest mismatch to be him against the LSU defense. One big run and a late lead may be all he needs to put money in your pocket.
The Picks: Tee Higgins Rec. Yds. over 86.5 (-140), Travis Etienne Rec. Yds. under 45.5 (-120), Etienne Receptions under 4 (-140), Etienne Rush Yards over 94.5 (-115)
The Verdict: Clemson-LSU Betting Preview
I believe that Dabo and Clemson defend their title on Monday night in New Orleans. In my Clemson-LSU Betting Preview, I will take Clemson by a score of 34-30.
