The Pick: DePaul +8.5
DePaul @ Louisville, 8pm ET, ACC Network
This isn’t your typical DePaul team… First year HC Tony Stubblefield is starting to right the ship that has gone way off course over the past few seasons.
They are off to an amazing start this year as Stubblefield has lead the Blue Demons to a 7-1 record (7-1 ATS). DePaul is 8th in the country with 85.3 PPG and 33rd in the country with 55.2 FG % within 2 point range. Led by Javon Freeman-Liberty who is averaging almost 22 ppg and 3 other starters who are contributing double digits, this Blue Demons squad has a ton of firepower to stay in any game they play in this season.
Louisville has had a tougher schedule to date than DePaul (19th SOS vs 58th), so their numbers might not be as sexy, but this Cardinals team, led by Senior Guard Noah Locke, has the ability to stifle many offenses with their Top 40 ranked Defensive Efficiency, Opponent Shooting % and Defensive Rebounding %.
This seems like a clear case of high powered offense VS lockdown defense. But one other metric really stood out to me: Effective Possession Ratio. DePaul is 29th in the country in EPR, while Louisville is 171. This stat would seem to be very vital in this contest tonight, where this would be the Blue Demons first road game of the season and would need to treat each possession with TLC. It also doesn’t hurt that they have the Free Throw edge in this matchup, 70.2% to 68.8%.
You know the age old saying: If you’re going to give me a dog, give me a dog with a great offense. That’s what we’re getting tonight with DePaul. +8.5 is way too many in my opinion. Give me Freeman-Liberty, or give me death!
TAKE DEPAUL +8.5 (Down to +7)