Patriot League: Navy vs. Bucknell 6:00 PM at Navy Alumni Hall, Annapolis, MD
The Pick: NAVY -11 (up to -12)
Navy, coming off a big win against Patriot League favorite Boston U, stay home to host the Bucknell Bison who just finished a shootout with Army, losing 96-89. Usually, I would be weary siding with teams coming off a big win, but not a Military Academy. The Academies tend to be more even-keeled teams, who do not go with the emotional day to day swings that college basketball brings. Instead, I am more worried about Bucknell coming off an emotional loss, where the game almost hit 200 points, which is rare in college basketball.
Navy’s first game as a member of the Patriot League was against Bucknell in 1992. Navy holds a 33-13 advantage in games played at Annapolis. The home team in this series has gone 41-19 in Patriot League play, with each of the last 4 games being decided by single digits. So, why is Navy being favored by double digits here? Lets dive in.
John Carter Jr. leads The Midshipmen’s slow but methodical offense with 14 ppg. Andrew Funk leads the more potent Bison attack with just under 19 ppg with 2 others averaging double figures in Xander Rice and Andre Screen.
This will be a battle of styles as Bucknell averages 6 more possessions per game than Navy but turns the ball over more. Navy also boasts a Top 50 Defensive Efficiency rating (TeamRankings.com), while Bucknell is in the bottom 20. They have a major edge in Rebounding and Steals and Navy is 6-0 when they record 7 or more steals.
Navy is 8-4 ATS this year and 11-2 ATS against a team with a losing SU record. The Bison are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or greater (TheGoldSheet.com). The Midshipmen are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games, while Bucknell is 0-4 this season away from home coming off a loss.
Overall, I generally believe it is much tougher to speed up a slower pace team, than slow down a fast-paced team. Plus, the home team has the edge, and The Midshipmen faithful will be excited to see them get a chance to go 3-0 in Conference play. I expect Navy to get The Bison to play into their style and wear Bucknell down over the game and cause havoc on defense. The line has moved from -13 to -11, due to the past history of these contests being tight, so I think they are leaving us some value on the table with The Midshipmen.
PLAY: NAVY -11 (up to -12)