Are you new to gambling? A veteran? A numbers nerd or always trusting your gut? No matter who you are, you’re looking for a bet to cash tonight. I have that bet for you.

Background

In 2014, the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers went 6-6 and didn’t go bowling. Not only did they not go bowling, but the football program folded. After 2 seasons, the program returned and went 8-5 with a loss in the Bahamas Bowl. Not only that, but UAB’s fewest wins in a season since the rebirth was a 6-3 year in the shortened 2020 season. With all the winning has come a 41-27-1 cover percentage since 2017. However, we don’t bet on history, we bet on the teams in front of us.

For Western Kentucky, there were a LOT of turnovers, especially on the offensive side of the ball, in the offseason. The Hilltoppers lost Bailey Zappe, who broke the single-season yards and touchdowns record last season. They also lost the orchestrator of the offense, Zach Kittley, to his alma mater Texas Tech. That hasn’t stopped head coach Tyson Helton from airing it out and throwing the ball all over the field. Quarterback Austin Reed has come in from West Florida where he won the Division 2 National Championship in 2019. Reed is currently 4th in the country in yards and touchdowns so far in 2022.

The Pick: UAB +100 ML

This game is going to be very entertaining. If you want to see what good Group of 5 football looks like, this should be it. Both teams rank in the top 25 of EPA/play in the country with UAB having a slight edge. Where there is a large difference in the metrics is the overall success rate. UAB is 16th in the country and WKU sits at 52nd. Western Kentucky’s defense is the biggest question mark in this game. Their EPA against the pass and run is above average, but it’s that pesky success rate. DeWayne McBride, stud UAB running back, should get a few holes and wear down the WKU defense all night. I think WKU keeps it close, but McBride’s 5’11”, 215-pound frame will close out a road win for the Blazers.