Much like my gut after the holidays, the Playoff has no room for expansion. While most people want an 8, maybe 16 team Playoff field… I’m here to tell you it would be a mistake. Four is the perfect number for the Playoff. I’ll be the first to admit that the matchups that would come from an eight team field would be fun… but for they most part, they’d be a waste of time (with some exceptions).
If there were 8….
This is what an 8 team Playoff would have looked like this year based on the CFP rankings at the end of the season.
Clemson vs. USC
Oklahoma vs. Auburn
Georgia vs. Wisconsin
Alabama vs. Ohio State
If the Playoff was an 8 team field, these would be the matchups we would have seen this year. I’m not gonna lie, these would be cool. But they would be a waste of time. Sure, maybe Auburn finds a way to knock off OU, but just like every year it’s going to be Alabama (or another SEC blue-blood) vs another blue-blood from the Big Ten or ACC.
Sidenote: I’ll bet anyone $50 that the Pac-12 doesn’t make it to the National Championship for 5 years.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure that every couple years a surprise team would make a run to the semifinals or even the National Championship… but for the most part, it would be the same as having a four team Playoff. You can’t tell me that the same Ohio State team that got handled by Oklahoma and absolutely thrashed by Iowa has any chance to take down Alabama at a neutral site. You also can’t tell me a turnover prone Wisconsin team has a chance with the athleticism of the SEC defenses (although they did beat Miami and the turnover chain, so I’ll give them props there).
The point here is: putting more teams in the Playoff will RARELY change the championship game. If you give me this 8 team version for this year, I’m still picking the same four teams that were in the original final four. And even if one team surprises, that’s four extra games being played for only a slightly changed result.
With 8 teams, nobody is left out
While most people probably view this as a positive, I thoroughly enjoy laughing at the one (or two) conferences that don’t make the Playoff. I do want to take the time to point out that this year, IF there were an eight team field, there would be a chance that the Pac-12 still gets shut out if the committee were to pick Penn State over USC. Not likely, but still funny.
If and when the Playoff does expand, one thing will never be the same for the fans: the debate. The debate of the 4, 5, 6 seeds will ALWAYS be way better than a debate about the 8, 9, 10 seeds. Half the fun of the Playoff is the debate it sparks… I think it’s safe to say it’s much more fun to argue about Alabama and Ohio State than UCF and Penn State.
If it makes money, it makes sense… right?
This is where I think the NCAA would make their biggest mistake. Saturday is for College Football. College football is for Saturday… this is why I think the NCAA is becoming more and more popular over the NFL: they don’t oversaturate.
College Football has one major thing going for them over the NFL: people really thirst for College Football. Not many do the same for the NFL. Put it like this, if College Football and the NFL were two restaurants, College Football would have people lining out the door to get a seat. It would be the talk of the town and everyone would be trying to get a reservation. On the flip side, the NFL would always be half empty, no line, and probably be rated three stars on Yelp.
I fear that expanding the Playoff field is taking steps towards oversaturation. There’s a certain exclusive factor that the Playoff really has going for it. I know when my team was nearly in the field in previous years, it was crazy. It was all anyone in my state could talk about. With eight teams, I feel like the Playoff loses some of that elite feeling. On top of that, I’m not sure if the ratings would expand with the field. It probably depends a ton on the teams playing, but I highly doubt a UCF-Clemson Playoff game would bring in a great amount of ratings outside of their respective fan bases.
And comes the issue of timing. Do you just keep pushing the season farther? Do you give the players less rest? Do you put the first round before Christmas? There would be a lot to figure out. IF the Playoff is expanded, I really hope they don’t just keep pushing the season back. There’s a certain emotional connection between the holidays and Bowl season for most Americans. I know for me, calories don’t count if a bowl game is on. This is a fact. Having the championship game in mid January takes away from that a bit.
Final Take: I hope the Playoff doesn’t expand… but if it does, do it right NCAA.