With a month left in the regular season the discussion for who will get in the Playoff is heating up. Of course at this point no one has any clue of who is getting in–except for Alabama, they are probably getting in. With the Committee coming out with their first official Playoff poll on Tuesday of this week, I will also take a crack at who might get in as my original four seems laughable at this point.
My Top 4
Alabama
Remaining Schedule: vs LSU, at Miss St, vs Mercer, at #16 Auburn
Chances of winning out: 51.73%
From a statistics standpoint Alabama has only roughly a 52% chance of winning out. In reality, we all know it’s probably closer to 90%. It is pretty easy to understand why Alabama will make the CFP for the fourth consecutive year, so I will just sum it up as there is no need to convince anyone. Best head coach of our generation, elite defense and special teams, offense that isn’t flashy but still wins. Moving on.
Wisconsin
Remaining Schedule: at Indiana, vs Iowa, vs Michigan, at Minnesota
Chances of winning out: 45.86%
Hear me out for a second. Yes, they are not the most sexy team in world, but they are consistent. They failed to score 30 points only twice this season and have only allowed one team to score 20 points or more. They have had a rather easy schedule, but if they do manage to win out the regular season and then beat another Playoff team like Ohio State or Penn State in the Big Ten championship, it will be impossible to keep this team out.
As far as team play, they once again have one of best defenses in the country. They rank top five in the country in yards allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per game, and scoring defense. They are also one of the best teams running the football, and have a true freshman Heisman candidate who is leading the charge. My opinion for being a successful team is the ability to run the football and defense. Wisconsin for years has shown this to be true if you take a look at their recent history.
Clemson
Remaining Schedule: at NC State, vs Florida State, vs The Citadel, at South Carolina
Chances of winning out: 50.49%
Despite Clemson having one loss, I still believe they are the second best team in the country. They have a chance to prove that by beating North Carolina State this weekend. Then they will have a rather easy schedule the rest of the way with a semi-tough test in South Carolina.
Clemson is one of the more consistent teams in the country on both offense and defense. However, going forward I believe the key for Clemson will be their defense. This squad is one of the most efficient in the country and will need them to continue to play at a high level since they might run into a few games where points might be hard to get, specifically North Carolina State and South Carolina. The offense is still really good, though, and they have a lot of star power.
Oklahoma State
Remaining Schedule: vs #8 Oklahoma, at #14 Iowa State, vs Kansas State, vs Kansas
Chances of winning out: 27.55%
I’m sorry everyone, but I am a believer in Mike Gundy. They have the gun-slinging offense led by Mason Rudolph and much like Clemson they have a defense that is flying under the radar. Their next two games will be make or break, as they play Oklahoma and Iowa State in Ames. With wins against both those teams and a Big 12 championship there will be no doubt that this is a Playoff team.
They are the most prolific offense in the entire nation, ranking 3rd in the country in yards per game, 2nd in passing yards per game, and 4th in points per game. This is also helped by averaging nearly 200 yards rushing per game. Defensively they are no joke either, while the play in the Big 12 generally leaves good defense hard to come by, Oklahoma State is ranked 16th in overall defensive efficiency. By no means does that make them elite or in the same conversation for the best defense. What it does tell us is that they are no pushover either, if you’re a Big 12 team who score a bunch and have a defense that can keep teams in the 20’s, you’ll be in a good position.
On The Bubble
Ohio State
They improved their chances at a Playoff spot by tenfold with a win over Penn State. Now they are sitting in the driver’s seat for a trip to the Big 10 championship. Ohio State will be tested a few times between now and then having both Michigan State and Michigan left on the schedule, which are always tough games. Unless they slip against Michigan State and/or Michigan, the Buckeyes will be playing for a Big 10 title for the first time since 2014 and a Playoff spot for the second straight year.
Oklahoma
They are still in contention but can quickly fall out, as the last four games are brutal for the Sooners. They have to play Oklahoma State and TCU in back-to-back weeks, and after a tune up game against Kansas they will finish their season off against West Virginia. This is going to be tough as they struggled at times during the season squeaking by some not-so-good teams like Baylor, Texas, and Kansas State. However, if they can get a win against these next four teams they will put themselves in excellent position to make the Playoff.
Georgia
Georgia has been dominating a lot of bad teams this year and got big wins against Notre Dame and Mississippi State. They still have some tough matchups left, specifically against South Carolina and Georgia Tech. While neither of these teams are great by any stretch, they can still trip up Georgia and their hopes to make the Playoff. Assuming they win out–which they could easily do–they will have to play Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Honestly I do not see them winning that game and I do not see a team who lost their most recent game making the Playoff. If they do pull off the upset against Alabama, they will undoubtedly make the playoffs. But, that’s a big if.
Notre Dame
This one is tough. Notre Dame has looked pretty good this year. They have come a long way since losing to Georgia and have been dominating good teams like USC and NC State in recent weeks. They will also have two more Top 25 matchups left against undefeated Miami and a Stanford team that has won five in a row. But as of right now, Notre Dame should be in the Playoff discussion. The question is, do you think a team who is 11-1 without a conference title is more deserving of a playoff spot than a team sitting at 12-1 with a conference title? That’s where there is a lot of gray area. Nevertheless, they make the bubble squad.
In The Hunt
Penn State, TCU, Miami, Washington, Virginia Tech, and Iowa State
