Who are the likely 2019 NCAAF Playoff contenders at this early stage?

Although we’re just a few weeks into the new 2019/20 NCAAF season, with all 24 major-conference teams going all out to try and make an impression, some have managed to achieve this more than others. Some teams have already started to display their strengths and weaknesses when it comes to their Playoff potential. This article is designed to shine a spotlight on those colleges who appear to have all the ingredients to qualify for the post-season showdown.

The easiest way to review the potential 2019/20 NCAAF Playoff contenders is to try and pick the bones out of the post-season data modelling system, designed by the guys at FiveThirtyEight. Their projections not only state each team’s percentage chance of winning the overall championship or reaching the playoffs, but also highlight game weeks that could prove decisive for each team’s chances. There might be some unsurprising projections, but there may also be some other interesting calls that could really upset the applecart if they came to fruition.

Clemson Vs Alabama: Take Four?

Seasoned college football fans won’t be stunned to discover that all the talk in terms of NCAAF playoff futures wagers is surrounding whether Clemson or Alabama will end up finishing the season top of the pile. Both teams have started the season well, with three wins in as many games, setting themselves up nicely. FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model implies that Clemson have a 45% chance of reaching the championship game, while Alabama have a 30% shot.  It also suggests there is a 14% chance of another Clemson Vs. Alabama showdown in the championship final that’s due to be hosted in New Orleans in the New Year.

You don’t have to be Albert Einstein to figure out that this figure means there is still an 86% chance that the championship game won’t contain both Clemson and Alabama. That’s good news for those who don’t want yet another NCAAF campaign to be dominated by two colleges. This modelling system gives Georgia more than a 25% chance of reaching this year’s playoffs, along with the independent Notre Dame. Their Week 4 clash was due to be a crunch decider for Notre Dame as to whether or not they can last the pace. Unfortunately for them, a narrow 23-17 defeat will mean that their chances of qualifying for the playoffs will be seriously hampered in FiveThirtyEight’s updated prediction model. Meanwhile Wisconsin’s demolition of Michigan sets them up nicely for their “danger week” game with Ohio State in Week 9.

Watch this space for Week 14…

Other so-called “danger weeks” for the leading contingent include Week 14. In fact, the top four teams considered to have the best chance of making the playoffs and winning the overall title have key games looming in Week 14. Clemson visit South Carolina, Alabama play Auburn, Oklahoma play Oklahoma State, and Ohio State faces off against Michigan. Auburn are also considered Georgia’s “danger week” in Week 12, so they could have an influential role to play as the season takes shape.

Clemson’s Week 4 game with Charlotte was anything but a banana skin for the Tigers. They battered Charlotte 52-10, but that wasn’t really the most interesting outcome of the evening. In fact, the most fascinating part of Clemson’s Week 4 fixture was the presence of Disney’s movie cameras. The upcoming Disney release “Safety” is being filmed in Clemson, based on the life and times of former Tigers star, Ray Ray McElrathbey, who raised his younger brother while playing for the Tigers having been granted custody of him after his mom entered rehab for drug addiction. It promises to be something of a tear-jerker. Nevertheless, the half-time entertainment at the Charlotte game was all about simulating plays for Disney’s cameras, with actors dressed as Tigers players taking to the field.

As so many teams are expected to have key games in Week 14, which is the final weekend before the conference championships, there looks like being plenty of drama to unfold in the back end of the normal season. Remember, FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model will change with every game week that passes, so it’s a useful tool to use to understand the implications of every game that’s played.