Somehow, someway, we got 3 upset picks right straight up last week. Syracuse knocked off Florida State, Troy stunned Nebraska, and in perhaps the biggest surprise of this college football season, Wisconsin lost at home to BYU. Additionally, Notre Dame did not cover at home against Vanderbilt. This week presents new challenges with bigger spreads and some games that seem too difficult to try and predict an upset for. But screw it, let’s try to pick some upsets. I give you Upset Alert: Week 4 edition.
2 Georgia (-14) at. Missouri
I know. Bold start. But what’s not to love about Drew Lock? In just three games, Lock has eclipsed 1000 yards passing and added 11 touchdowns to the mix. I know it wasn’t against defenses half as good as Georgia, but the Tigers offense has totaled 589 yards a game en route to a 3-0 start. Missouri’s run defense has been solid, but the holes in the passing game has been apparent. Jake Fromm is no easy task to contain, but if the Tigers defense can give Drew Lock enough opportunities with the ball, the Tigers may have a chance to shock the Bulldogs at home. Georgia is our first team on upset alert.
23 Boston College (-6.5) at. Purdue
Boston College and Purdue have essentially been on polar opposite ends of the spectrum this season. BC has gotten off to a 3-0 start and finds itself in the Top 25 for the first time since 2008. Purdue has started 0-3, with a loss at the hands of Eastern Michigan in Week 2. It hasn’t been pretty. But the Boilermakers offense hasn’t been a problem. David Blough and Rondale Moore have found a special connection leading Perdue to 520 yards of offense per game. The bad news? The Boilermakers defense has been atrocious, allowing 475 yards a game. The run defense hasn’t been terrible, and it will have to step up against star Boston College RB AJ Dillon. In a game that has been all but chalked up as a win for BC, watch out for the sneaky Perdue air attack. Everything about this game smells like a trap for the Eagles. Boston College better not take their ranking for granted, or they could find themselves on the wrong end of an upset.
Minnesota at. Maryland (-2.5)
It’s always an interesting line when a team that was just blown out at home against Temple opens up as favorites against an undefeated conference rival. The Terps lost 35-14 to Temple, while Minnesota improved to 3-0 with a blow out win against Miami (OH). The question is which Maryland team will show up? The one that stunned Texas in Week 1, or the one that just lost to Temple? I’m guessing the ladder. Minnesota doesn’t provide anything special on the offensive side of the ball, but the Gophers have played lights out on defense. With something to prove on the road, I like the Gophers to upset Maryland in this Big 10 matchup.
Nevada at. Toledo (-10.5)
I know this game doesn’t scream sexy, but a 10.5 point favorite always raises the eyebrows, especially when Nevada has gotten off to a 2-1 start. After being blown out by Vanderbilt, Nevada bounced back with a win over Oregon State. Toledo has aired the ball out in its first two games, and even kept it close against Miami (Fl) early on. This game is sure to be a shootout, as both offenses have gone well over 400 yards per game. Noon kickoff in the Glass Bowl gives Toledo the advantage, but I like Nevada’s ability to keep a balanced attack against the Rockets defense. Watch out Toledo, you’re on upset alert.
Kansas at. Baylor (-7.5)
ALL ABOARD THE KANSAS TRAIN. The Jayhawks blew out Rutgers 55-14 and haven’t looked back since their opening loss to Nicholls. But maybe this game is less about Kansas and more about Baylor. The Bears have struggled to stop the run, while Kansas has pounded the rock with Pooka Williams Jr, Khalil Herbert, Dom Williams and Deron Thompson all rushing for over 100 yards total this season. Kansas hasn’t completely figured it out at quarterback, but both Peyton Bender and Miles Kendrick have been steady. The Jayhawks bring to Waco the best defense they’ve had in years, and Baylor is sure to be a true test, but why not an upset win? Okay yeah, so maybe I’m way too excited about Kansas. ROCK CHALK BABY, watch out Baylor.
14 Mississippi State (-9.5) at. Kentucky
This game was a tough one for me because I am a big Mississippi State believer. But Kentucky has been tested and yet have kept rolling. In the battle between two 3-0 SEC teams, the key will be on the ground. Stud Kentucky RB Benny Snell against a Bulldogs defense that has allowed under 90 yards per game on the ground. I give the advantage to Snell and the nighttime atmosphere at Kroger Field. Both defenses have been great this year, but something will have to give on Saturday night. Covering a 10 point spread on the road in the SEC is no easy task, and I think Kentucky has some more fireworks left in the tank. Watch out Bulldogs, this Kentucky team has you on upset alert.
24 Michigan State (-6) at. Indiana
Last week I had success picking against two Big 10 favorites in Nebraska and Wisconsin, so why not continue the trend? Maybe I’m a little biased. If you haven’t heard of Indiana’s Freshman RB Stevie Scott, take notice. Scott has gone for 388 yards and 3 touchdowns through three games. He’s also from a high school in my area, so I’m slightly in favor of the Hoosiers. Indiana’s defense has also been under the radar. On the flip side, Michigan State has not been impressive. After sneaking by Utah State, Sparty lost its first road game against Arizona State. In a classic Big 10 slugfest, Michigan State better watch its back in Bloomington. They’re our last team on upset alert in Week 4.