Site icon Student Union Sports

Beat the Spread: Conference Tournament Weekend Perfect Parlay

ST LOUIS, MO - MARCH 18: Reggie Upshaw #30 of the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders reacts after a dunk late in the game against the Michigan State Spartans during the first round of the 2016 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Scottrade Center on March 18, 2016 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Ivy League Semifinal Harvard (-1.5) vs Yale: The first Ivy League Semi Final game will feature a contest between the conference best and most iconic rivalry. Harvard and Yale known as the country’s most prestigious academic institutions.    The basketball rivalry between the two schools may be just as good as the football and academic rivalry. The two institutions have played meaningful basketball games over the last few years, and the two head coaches Tommy Amaker and James Jones have genuinely outspoken hate for each other. In 2014, Jones threw some shade regarding Marker’s recruiting tactics; mentioning that his program “could not get involved with many of the kids” that Amaker has brought to Cambridge. The Crimson or the Bulldogs have represented the conference in the NCAA tournament during the last 5 years. The prestigious IVY League rivalries will meet at the iconic venue the Palestra in Philadelphia. (Quick fun fact time) This season the Palestra is celebrating its 90th anniversary and the iconic venue has as hosted more games, more teams, and more NCAA Tournaments than any other arena. So it only makes sense that This rivalry matchup and the inaugural tournament may make this game unpredictable, but analyzing this matchup from a statistics vantage point the Crimson are the more superior team. Harvard swept Yale during the season and won by double digits in both contests. In addition, Yale is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference matches while the Crimson are 6-2 during the same time frame. The Crimson are very strong on the defensive end allowing 47% effective field goal percentage. The person who made this line looked way too far into the narrative. Harvard has the superior talent and they should cover this spread easily.

Big 12 Championship: West Virginia (-3) vs Iowa State: The Cyclones have been on this stage before. Saturday afternoon the Cyclones will try to win their 3rd BIG 12 Tournament title in 4 years. West Virginia has made the Big 12 final despite a couple of underwhelming offensive performance in the tournament. The Mountaineers scraped by against Shaka Smart’s Texas squad, and despite making late mistakes that should have cost them the game WVU pulled out a close 51-50 victory over Kansas St. Iowa St has also had an easy passage to the final beating Oklahoma St and TCU. Iowa St shot over 50% in their two BIG 12 tournament victories. However, expect Press Virginia to disrupt Iowa St’s offensive rhythm. During the teams regular season meetings,  West Virginia beat the Cyclones on the road 85-72 and last Friday West Virginia beat the Cyclones by double digits again 87-76. This should be one of the most exciting games on the college basketball slate. “Press Virginia” has forced the most turnovers in the country will face an Iowa State offense that has suffered the 2nd least turnovers in the country. Aside from the turnover battle, the main factor will be whether the Cyclones will be able to keep the Mountaineers off the offensive glass. The Mountains rank 6th in offensive rebounding percentage, while the Cyclones have an abysmal 32.2 rebounding percentage ranking them 291 in the country. In their last matchup during the regular season finale, West Virginia dominated the offensive glass gaining 18 second chance opportunities against Iowa State’s 8. The Mountaineers will dominate the offensive glass and will put together a great offensive performance to carry momentum into the NCAA tournament. This is an easy cover if West Virginia displays efficiency on offense.

Conference USA Championship (Marshall +9.5 ) vs Middle Tennessee St: After defeating Louisiana Tech by a score of 93-77, the Marshall Thundering Herd (20-14, 10-8) advance to the finals of the Conference USA Conference Tournament to battle the MTSU Blue Raider. In their matchup against LTSU, the Thundering Herd shot an astounding 53% from three point land. This is may be an exaggeration, but Marshall is micro-mid major college version of the Golden St Warriors. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCqC0nvVO6g. In addition, the Thundering Herd offense excels against zone defenses, and they should expose the Blue Raiders 1-3-1 zone. However, MTSU head coach Kermit Davis is notoriously great at making defensive adjustments and I wouldn’t be surprised if MTSU decides to man up against Marshall. Middle Tennessee has won 9 in a row, and the Blue Raiders are on a mission to go back to the NCAA tournament. However, Marshall is explosive enough to keep up Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders should win, but take the Thundering Herd and the points here.

WAC Championship Game (New Mexico St (+3) vs CSU Bakersfield): Last year in the WAC championship game, Bakersfield guard Derek Basile made a game-winning three at the buzzer to punch the Roadrunners first ticket to the NCAA championship game. CSU Bakersfield victory broke the Aggies streak of 4 consecutive WAC tournament championships and NCAA appearances. A reenergized NMSU program under new head coach Paul Weir will look to seek revenge Saturday night. Last night, the Roadrunners survived a 4OT marathon escaping with an 81-80 win over Utah Valley. After a lackluster performance against Chicago St, the Aggies took care of business against UMKC winning handily 86-60. Both of the teams split the season series, but the Roadrunners claimed the regular season WAC championship. At one point in the season, New Mexico St was the hottest team in college basketball winning 20 games row. From late November to mid-February the Aggies looked unstoppable. However, NMSU faltered down the stretch losing back to back road games to CSU Bakersfield and Grand Canyon. The Aggies are led by (not my WAC player of the year) Ian Baker and 6’5 super sub Jeremiah Jones. Read Jacob Allen’s article to catch that last reference: http://www.studentunionsports.com/college-basketball/the-wac-is-whack/jallen. If the Aggies can keep their turnover woes at bay, they should be able to cover this game while having a chance to win outright. The WAC championship game should go down to the wire again, and giving three points to either side is too much to give up. NMSU is my favorite lock of the day.

PSA: The NMSU has become a -2.5 favorite as of 10:30. NMSU is still a very strong bet on the ML, but wouldn’t give the points. 

Exit mobile version