Saint Mary's College is not exactly a hotbed for college hoops success. Yet, here we are, less than two months from Selection Sunday, and the Saint Mary's Gaels are sit at a stellar 15-1 before their weekend matchup with undefeated Gonzaga. Is it time that we add Saint Mary's to our list of national championship contenders? Not quite.
Tale of the Tape
Schedule
Saint Mary's did not do themselves any favors when scheduling non-conference games. Only two opponents appear to be a lock for the tournament (Dayton and Nevada), and only one other opponent (BYU) appears to be on the bubble. Gonzaga, who the Gaels will square off with twice, is the only ranked team on the schedule.
The Team
Head coach Randy Bennett is in his 17th year for Saint Mary's, with five NCAA Tournament appearances. In his past nine seasons, Bennett has guided the Gaels to a 234-71 record. He even coached NBA starter Matthew Dellavedova. Bennett is clearly more than capable of leading the team to a postseason birth.
As for the players that Bennett coaches, Jock Landale is the straw that stirs the drink, leading the team with 17.8 points per game. In addition, Landale also pulls down 9.7 rebounds per game. Only three players are averaging double-digit points per game, while Landale and Dave Pineau, a bench player, are the only players averaging above 5 rebounds a game. Landale is one of seven Australians on the roster, an interesting makeup for a D1 roster. Saint Mary's is built on size, with four players standing at 6'9" or taller. Having this impressive size on the roster allows the Gaels to matchup with any team on paper.
Key Stats
The Gaels win their games the old-fashioned way, defense. Bennett's squad allows just 56.6 points per game, while scoring an average of 74.1 points per game. The importance of defense is magnified on a big stage, so having a good defense in the regular season is a good place to start. In addition to a strong defense, the Gaels shoot free throws at an impressive 76% clip. If you don't think that free throws are important, ask Memphis fans about the 2008 National Championship game. Rebounding is an issue that becomes concerning come tournament time. Averaging 36.9 rebounds per contest, Saint Mary's checks in at 159th in the nation. Despite the size on the roster, Saint Mary's does not use that to their advantage. While 37 rebounds a game in games against West Coast Conference opponents, playing the top teams in the country magnify these deficiencies.
Final Analysis
While Bennett will have his team ready for battle come tournament time, it is highly improbable that Saint Mary's will make a deep run in the tournament. The team just has too many weak spots, rebounding being a glaring one. When the Gaels travel to Spokane to face off with Gonzaga, I don't expect a close game. Gonzaga has a size, and rebounding advantage, and have home court advantage.
Prediction: Saint Mary's will get into the tournament as a 5 seed, and lose in the Round of 32.