Luis Severino received Tommy John surgery in February of last year. The typical recovery time for Tommy John is usually 12-18 months. Yankees GM Brian Cashman addressed the return of Severino a few weeks ago:
“Late summer” has been interpreted to mean sometime in July or August. Cashman soon clarified, stating that “late July” was the target for Severino’s return.
However, recent developments have given some fans the impression that this may not be the case.
Help on the Way?
For the past several years, Severino has been one of the Yankees’ most reliable pitchers. The ace (at least before Gerrit Cole arrived) pitched to a 3.13 ERA (139 ERA+) from 2017-2019.
Despite this, a series of injuries (a familiar trend for Yankee fans) have held Severino to just 3 regular-season appearances since the start of 2019. Upon his return, it is likely that he will be limited in terms of innings. But that return date could be sooner than many originally expected.
This news is certainly very encouraging in regards to Sevy’s recovery. If Severino begins throwing off the mound before Spring Training ends, he could potentially ramp up his throwing regimen in the earlier months of the season.
A return to the rotation, or the pitching staff in general, would be a huge help for a team with plenty of high-risk arms.
Sevy Metal
However, while this news is encouraging and causes Yankee fans to wish for an early return, it’s important that his recovery isn’t rushed, for a number of reasons.
The first is relatively self-explanatory. If Severino returns before he is fully ready, not only could this lead to sub-par results, but it also could increase the chance that he suffers another injury. The Yankees’ injury troubles have been well-documented, and have come at a historic pace in recent years. The last thing that the Yankees need is for Sevy to go down again.
The second reason is a bit more team-oriented.
High Risk, High Reward
The Yankees’ starting rotation currently boasts two other arms with a history of injury troubles. Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon project to slot into the No. 2 and No. 3 spots, respectively. As fans are no doubt aware of, those two have combined to throw just 74 innings across the past two seasons.
Let’s say, hypothetically, these two don’t exactly work out. After Gerrit Cole and the Kluber/Taillon duo, the Yankees have arms such as Jordan Montgomery, Deivi Garcia, Domingo German, or Clarke Schmidt. Veteran Jhoulys Chacin could also play a role if need be.
While those arms still have some upside, it’s hardly a rotation that the team would be too confident in heading into the postseason. This makes the health of Severino, Kluber, and Taillon extremely important for 2021.
The March to October
A full-strength Luis Severino would be a huge addition to a Yankee team that is already heading into Opening Day with one of the strongest rosters in baseball.
Imagine a playoff rotation of Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Corey Kluber, and Jameson Taillon. This, coupled with the Yanks’ elite lineup and terrific bullpen, could potentially propel them to their 28th World Series victory.
So, while an early return would be exciting for the fans, it is important that the Bronx Bombers ease Severino back, and ensure that he is at full strength before throwing him into the fire again.
Remember, the Yankees are already favorites to win the AL East by a pretty significant margin. The PECOTA projections have the Yankees winning 98 games, 11 more than the second-place Tampa Bay Rays.
It’s also important to remember that championships are won in October (and sometimes November). A 100% healthy Luis Severino pitching in October is much more important than a less-than-100% Severino pitching in early-to-mid-July.
