All data in this article is borrowed from collegepolltracker.com
To many people, the AP Poll is the definitive answer to who the best teams in college sports are. They also see the small little number next to the teams with their ranking and don’t think anything of it other than knowing that some people decided that rank. The way the AP poll works is on a point scale, 1 point for a vote at 25, 2 for 24, 3 for 23, and so on. This is compiled together into total points and then the teams are ranked based on these points. Sounds simple, right?
But who are these people that are voting? That is often the part that is off everybody’s radar. There are 64 sportswriters across the country who are sending in their polls each week. 61 of these writers are associated with a local publication, and 3 of them are national voters (ESPN, SI, NPR). And luckily, the power of technology lets us look into how each individual voter ranked the teams and see who had the best/worst/craziest votes.
Each week for the rest of the season I will be taking a deeper look into the poll for you, compiling a list of the most noteworthy votes and polls of the week.
Most Accurate Poll of the Week: Shannon Ryan, Chicago Tribune
The only real difference between Shannon’s poll and the real poll is her pick of UCLA at 7 (actual: 10) and Florida at 21 (actual: 17). Otherwise, she didn’t have any outliers and every team seemed to be right where they are in the actual poll or within one spot. Nothing too much to see here, moving on. Good job Shannon.
Least Accurate Poll of the Week: Graham Couch, Lansing State Journal
I’m not entirely sure what Graham was thinking with some of the picks in his poll but let’s dive into it. The first one to jump off the page is Virginia at #5 (actual: 12). Now, in hindsight, it is a fine pick after Virginia just knocked off Louisville on Monday night. Can’t complain too much about that. Another pick that jumps off the page is Kentucky at #10 (actual: 15). The majority of voters had the Wildcats around 14, 15, 16, and one voter (the one and only Dicky V) had them all the way down at #20. Now is where it gets really weird. Graham has 6 teams ranked 5 spots away from their actual poll position and has 2 teams that didn’t even make the top 25. Those teams are Maryland at #16 (actual: 21), Wisconsin at #17 (7), Cincinnati at #18 (11), Northwestern at #22 (NR), Duke at #23 (18), and Iowa State at #24 (NR).
Student Union Award for Best Pick: Cecil Hurt, The Tuscaloosa News (Florida at #11)
This pick is based on who I think had a vote that makes a lot of sense but may seem like an outlier.
Cecil wins the award for having the Florida Gators at #11. This is going out on a limb, but let me explain. Florida is currently 18-5. Same record as Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Duke, you get the point. They also have the 14th best strength of schedule, and when they’ve lost, they’ve lost by: 2, 4, 5, 5, and 10. All of those losses are against top 20 teams except for the 2-point loss against Vanderbilt. They also have 5 wins against the top 50 with one of those being a blowout win against Kentucky. RPI has the Gators at #8, so the metrics like them. So basically, they have a pretty good resume. The comparable 5 loss teams are ranked 12 and 13 and one of them is about to move up into the top 10 after beating Louisville. I think ranking the Gators in the 11-13 range is about where they should be.
Student Union Award for Worst Pick: John Feinstein, National Public Radio and Krista Pirtle, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal (Saint Mary’s at #11)
Alright, I’m sorry to any Saint Mary’s grads out there but I just do not understand the hype around this team. Yes, they deserve to be ranked. Yes, they have had a great season and are very good. I think their actual ranking #20 is perfect for them, so that is not my complaint. My complaint is how the hell do these two journalists think they should be #11 in the country. Their best win is against Dayton, they only have 3 top 100 wins, and 14 out of their 21 wins are against teams ranked lower than 150 (8 of those are lower than 200). They have had 1 game against the top 25 and got throttled by a very, VERY good Gonzaga team. But 11th ranked teams wouldn’t be coming up so empty in really their only big game so far. Their home game coming up against Gonzaga will be huge to change perceptions on them.
(Honorable mention to Graham Couch for that Wisconsin pick. #17? That is brutal)