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Cracking the Code: AP Poll Week 16

All data in this article is borrowed from collegepolltracker.com

 

To many people, the AP Poll is the definitive answer to who the best teams in college sports are. They also see the small little number next to the teams with their ranking and don’t think anything of it other than knowing that some people decided that rank. The way the AP poll works is on a point scale, 1 point for a vote at 25, 2 for 24, 3 for 23, and so on. This is compiled together into total points and then the teams are ranked based on these points. Sounds simple, right?

But who are these people that are voting? That is often the part that is off everybody’s radar. There are 64 sportswriters across the country who are sending in their polls each week. 61 of these writers are associated with a local publication, and 3 of them are national voters (ESPN, SI, NPR). And luckily, the power of technology lets us look into how each individual voter ranked the teams and see who had the best/worst/craziest votes.

 

Most Accurate Poll of the Week: Mitch Vingle, The Charleston Gazette

Vingle was almost completely spot on in his poll this week. The biggest difference he had from the actual poll was Baylor at #12 (actual: 9), which is understandable as they’ve lost 4 out of their last 6 games. Other than that, he has every team within two spots of their actual ranking and perfectly nailed the entire top 5. As usual, not much to see with the Most Accurate Poll other than the impressive accuracy of Mr. Vingle.

 

 

Least Accurate Poll of the Week: Doug Doughty, The Roanoke Times

In terms of inaccurate polls, this is one of the least bad ones I have seen. Only a few complaints. First off, Louisville is a little low at 13 in his poll (actual: 7) however I can see that he gave them a big drop after that brutal game against UVA. A really questionable choice is Wichita State at #16 (actual: 25). I wholeheartedly agree that Wichita State should be ranked (and can be dangerous come March as always) but #16 is way too high. After all, this team does not have any signature wins (2 top 100 wins) and has an RPI of 45. The most questionable decision by Doughty has to be with South Carolina. He has them ranked #19 (actual: NR). He moved them UP from #23 after losing their two games this week. That just doesn’t make any sense in the slightest. Only 4 voters have South Carolina ranked at all, and other than Doughty, the next highest is #24.

 

Student Union Award for Best Pick: Chris Dachille, WBAL-TV (Florida at #8)

This pick is based on who I think had a vote that makes a lot of sense but may seem like an outlier. 

Let me start off saying this: I do not think Florida should be #8. However, I am choosing them for the best pick because it shows they might be starting to get a little more respect. They have 5 top 50 wins (14 top 100 wins) to go with no losses to teams not in the top 50. Their best win is a 22 pointer over Kentucky. They’ve also won 8 games in a row and will be looking for the 9th today against South Carolina. So while I don’t think that they should be 8 necessarily, I think that it is a sign of people realizing Florida will be a force to be reckoned with in March, especially if they keep this current run going.

 

 

Student Union Award for Worst Pick: Kevin McNamara, The Providence Journal (Notre Dame at #13)

This pick is crazy for numerous reasons. Let’s start with the obvious: Notre Dame should not be #13. In the actual poll, they are ranked #21. I think that is a very fair ranking for them. McNamara had Notre Dame at #20 last week, and moved them up SEVEN spots for wins over the last and second to last teams in the ACC. But that is not all. He also has Notre Dame (21-7) ranked ahead of: 22-5 Florida (see above), 22-5 Kentucky, and 24-3 Cincinnati. I get that the ACC is having an amazing year as a whole, but that is not reason to move Notre Dame ahead of teams with better resumes, wins, and weeks than the Irish had this past week. I’m not really sure what the basis of this pick was.

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