I come to you today having been handed a slice of humble pie. I now sit at 1-4 on the year since I started posting picks. It has become clear to me that when I actually post my picks, they don’t win. The only way to bounce back off the mat is to start handing out winners. That starts TODAY. I have three college basketball picks that I feel strongly about, and this is the time we turn the ship around and send it right to the bank.

No. 14 Indiana (+5.5) over No. 8 Kansas

We start the day with a Top 15 matchup on the hardwood. Kansas has defended its national championship about as well as you can, sitting at 9-1. However, one thing Kansas has not done well is cover spreads. They are 4-6 ATS this season and welcome in an 8-2 Indiana team that is 6-3-1 ATS. The Hoosiers are 4th in the country in FG% at 51.1, and 26th in the country in true shooting% at 59.6. They also shoot better at the free throw line and have a higher offensive and defensive rating than Kansas. To summarize: 5.5 is a lot of points for an Indiana team that is right on par with Kansas.

If you’ve been reading this series you’ll know that #FadeThePublic is a top two rule for me lately. Kansas currently has 77% of tickets on them and a STUNNING 97% of money on them to cover the 5.5. This is one of the easier #FadeThePublic bets to make, not to mention the numbers shown previously. The public sees last season’s national championship in a big game, on a big day of college hoops, and takes them for that reason alone. Trayce Jackson-Davis will have this Kansas defense back on their heels. Take the Hoosiers to cover.

Seton Hall (-2.5) over Providence

This game goes into two territories that I like. Not only do we get a chance to #FadeThePublic, but we also get to make a play on a somewhat fishy line. Providence has one huge advantage in this game and that is their offense. They average 80.3 PPG to Seton Hall’s 68.6. So why does Providence, the team with a better record, enter as favorites? Well for one, they haven’t beaten a single “real team”. By real team, I mean a Power 5 school or a conference that produces good teams (like the A10). The Friars lost to Miami (FL), Saint Louis, and TCU in their three true tests. A lot of those high scoring games have come against teams like Northeastern, Stonehill, Merrimack, etc.

On the other side, Seton Hall has two “real” wins over Rutgers and Memphis. They’ve also been further tested with losses to Iowa and Kansas. The reason I love Seton Hall today is because of their defense. They allow just 60.3 PPG and pairing this with the home crowd for the first Big East game of the season makes me like the Pirates even more. 61% of bets and 81% of money lie with Providence, making the #FadeThePublic trend even sexier. Take the Pirates and the points early Saturday afternoon.

No. 23 Ohio State (+2) over North Carolina

One COULD argue that North Carolina being favored in this game is a bit fishy because of the 23 next to Ohio State’s name while UNC lacks a national ranking. But the bottom line here is that Ohio State is a better team than North Carolina. The Buckeyes are the better shooting team, three point shooting team, FT shooting team, defensive team, and are one of the best in the nation on the offensive boards. UNC has not shown up for a single real team this season, losing four straight to Iowa State, Alabama, Indiana, and Virginia Tech. Their bounce back wins came against Georgia Tech and The Citadel.

Ohio State’s last game, an emotional buzzer beating win over Rutgers, came nine days ago. This gives the Buckeyes plenty of time to prepare for UNC. In our last #FadeThePublic evidence of the day. 86% of bets and 82% of money lie with the Tar Heels. People remember the tournament run last year, see Love and Bacot are still on the team, and fire away with UNC. The truth is simple: this is not the same Tar Heels team as last season. At least not thus far. Snag Ohio State and the points.