The NBA’s Cinderella story is blooming from fairy tale into reality; the Chicago Bulls sit atop the Eastern Conference tied with the Miami Heat at the NBA All-Star Break. From “worst signing of the off-season” to MVP conversation, DeMar DeRozan’s innate ability to carry a team plagued by injuries is paying dividends, and now a healthy roster before the home-stretch is within reach.
Second-year forward Patrick Williams, who suffered a significant ligament tear in his left wrist in Chicago’s fifth game of the season, faces a mid-March return dependent on how his wrist responds to basketball activity.
Zach LaVine received positive news from a specialist earlier in the week in regards to a recurring issue with his surgically-repaired left knee. Swelling and discomfort requires rest and a calculated minutes restriction, not a secondary surgery five years post-op. Expect LaVine to return immediately following the All-Star Break. It’s possible the guard participates in the weekend’s festivities in Cleveland, but not a guarantee.
Derrick Jones Jr. already returned from a damaged finger, and now the depth-forward has an additional week away from the court to assess and rehab.
Guards Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball remain sidelined, but Caruso’s wrist fracture following a felonious flagrant foul from Grayson Allen is healing rapidly, and the former Laker could start dribbling and shooting in as little as one week. Lonzo’s knee troubles still strike cause for concern, but no news is good news, right? Ball’s timeline is still somewhere in mid-to-late March at this point. Once the Bulls have their best perimeter defenders back and healthy, it provides a significant boost to a team that thrived before their unexpected absence.
So what does this mean?
Chicago opted to remain radio-silent during an ever eventful trade deadline one week prior to the break. Instead, Chicago’s only addition (to this point) is reportedly signing Tristan Thompson after the experienced big man reached a buy-out agreement with the Indiana Pacers following a deadline deal from Sacramento. Other than that, Chicago is boasting confidence in the resiliency of its current group, and the help on its way from the injured list.
The emergence of Ayo Dosumnu in his rookie campaign allowed the Bulls to stand pat when teams below Chicago in the standings furiously dealt picks and pieces for postseason runs. Despite their names floating in various rumors, Coby White and Pat Williams remain in Chicago with pivotal roles ahead if this team has serious thoughts of contending in April and beyond.
An under-appreciated all-star
But the greatest success story is DeMar DeRozan. Heading into the break, DeRozan claims a seven-game streak of 35+ points. In each of the seven games, the guard owns a 50% or higher shooting clip; a feat never accomplished in the NBA’s storied past. DeRozan’s impressive play stretches much further than the last three weeks of hoops; it’s his career resurgence and late-game heroics and dominance that kept the Bulls toward the top of a conference dogfight through a treacherous stretch with limited bodies. When injuries forced Dosunmu into a starting role, and Alfonso McKinnie and Matt Thomas slotted into a weakened rotation, it was DeRozan’s presence that persevered in the stretch-run.
Dosunmu’s ability to learn and grow on the fly, White’s rebound following separate stints away from the floor – one for injury, another for health and safety protocols – Nikola Vučević’s recent renewal as a dominant center, and Billy Donovan’s ability to stay the course and instill energy and confidence into a lineup that closely resembled a Windy City Bulls roster through COVID and injury adversity in December and January; it’s all incredibly important for the main goal, but without DeRozan, none of this is remotely possible.
Crushing expectations beats crushing spirits.
Moments in the season caused various spikes of lost faith in the rapid process of Artūras Karnišovas and Marc Eversley. Questionable rotations and unexplainable Matt Thomas minutes still encourage eventual head-scratching, but it’s a stark contrast of the ineptitude of the previous regime. And the sudden behavioral switch between the preceding front office and current state of affairs allows a deserving fandom to rapidly and justifiably raise expectations.
FanDuel set Chicago’s expected win total before opening tip at 43.5. With twenty-three games left on the schedule, six wins eclipses that number. But at 38-21 before the break, finishing with 44 wins feels impossible and incomprehensible. A 12-11 finish nets the Bulls 50 wins for the first time since Tom Thibodeau coached the team to that mark before his firing in 2015. But 50 wins likely doesn’t land the Bulls home-court through the East gauntlet.
This Bulls squad, assembled over the course of one trade deadline in 2021 and a terrific offseason a few months later, didn’t leap off of the page to any of the talking heads. At best, a fifth seed. At worst, missing the play-in. But with 23 games remaining, and atop the East with the Miami Heat, expectations change, and this time, for the better. Fifth seed isn’t close to a goal; it’s a fallback. Through 59 games, a COVID related pause and a plethora of injuries ranging from day-to-day to month-to-month, it’s unmistakably clear that regardless of the hardship faced, DeRozan and the Bulls remain undeterred.
The Pessimistic Panorama vs. The Optimistic Outlook
Until the playoffs tip-off in Chicago, it’s up in the air as to whether this roster stands with other contenders, specifically Miami, Brooklyn, Philadelphia and the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. It’s easy to critique the front office’s approach to the trade deadline when last year’s aggression landed Vučević, but the following season, focus shifted toward the buy-out market. It’s just as effortless to overanalyze Donovan’s rotations. However, it’s not a straightforward process that flawlessly reflects the consistent effort and knowledge from the executive level through the last player in the given rotation. While nights pass in which Donovan’s decision-making is questionable at best, he earned the respect of the bench and trust of a fanbase starved for competency.
The difference between Donovan and the previous failures of Jim Boylen and Fred Hoiberg shone through last season. In year two, the quality of the product itself improved ten-fold. The conversation no longer pertains to Donovan’s ability to reach the postseason in Chicago. Barring a catastrophic collapse in the final month, Chicago’s high level of play all but guarantees its first berth since 2017. The conversation and newfound expectations begin to shift toward supreme success. Donovan’s reign in Oklahoma City ended on the heels of four consecutive first round exits following Kevin Durant’s departure in 2016.
Silencing doubts with irrelevance
Is Chicago’s roster today better than Oklahoma City’s when Donovan failed to reach the second round? When healthy, the answer is a resounding yes. And with rising expectation in Chicago, the margin for error isn’t as big as you’d expect with a franchise deprived of postseason play for five years. Certainly Donovan’s successes extend the leash as he barrels toward April with eyes on the prize. However, if Donovan and the Bulls struggle against an inferior opponent in the first round, what’s next? How long is the leash when windows in today’s NBA close faster than ever?
It’s irrelevant if DeRozan, Donovan and company exceeds fresher projections. That’s the conversation ender; just succeed in April and May. Expectations don’t reach The Finals. It’s a tough ask in a tough conference. But with the possibility of entering the playoffs with home-court advantage through at least two rounds, and the Bulls boasting the best home record in the East, it’s an appropriate assumption that Chicago should compete in a seven-game series. Failure to do so should not go unchecked. A playoff berth does not justify poor playoff performance; not with the roster constructed with eyes on prominent playoff basketball returning to Chicago.
Donovan’s earned the long leash. He’s not going anywhere regardless of the season’s finish. But relationships and morale sours quickly in the NBA. The best path toward long-term success is overcoming demons, proving to the club and fandom that we should believe in the possibility of ultimate success.
Succeeding Red
A healthy starting group consisting of DeRozan, LaVine, Ball, Patrick Williams and Vučević is tremendously talented. With time to return to the court before postseason play, and the ability to ramp up together, cohesion and talent ultimately travels the furthest. Last year’s Milwaukee Bucks hit stride, benefitted from opponent’s injuries, and possessed the services of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Premier defense, scoring threats and health bodes well in winner-takes-all tournaments. The Bulls possess all three elements to take the next step. The James Harden-Ben Simmons trade didn’t phase the talent-loaded roster in Chicago, nor did it send its executive level into a panicked spiral. The Bulls sit destined to compete, and tied atop the East at the All-Star break is a hell of a start.