When it comes to award season, the Best Picture Award is the most coveted. Over the years, the number of nominees for the award have broadened. From 1944 to 2008, only five films would be nominated. This made the decision very difficult and added a mystique of seclusion to it. In 2009 when Kathryn Bigelow’s film, The Hurt Locker won, ten films were nominated. Since then, we’ve seen two years where ten films were nominated, six years where nine films were nominated, and four years where eight films were nominated. Some people may not love more spots opening up, but with a year like 2022, I love it. There are lots of great films that are worthy of the nomination.
A lot of the time, the Academy is wrong. While films and how much you like them is obviously subjective, there are right and wrong winners of Best Picture. The same goes for nominations. In 1968, 2001: A Space Odyssey wasn’t nominated. SNUB! At the 1982 Oscars, Martin Scorsese’s masterpiece, The King Of Comedy wasn’t nominated. SNUB! And in 2007, Antonement was nominated over Zodiac. Seriously? Here are my predictions for what films will be nominated at the 95th Academy Awards.
Elvis (Baz Luhrmann)
Biopics are a shaky field when it comes to getting nominated, but we’ve seen biopics get nominated and even win in the past. Ghandi won in 1982, Schindlers List won in 1993, and The Kings Speech won in 2010. When it comes to Elvis, I absolutely loved the film. The issue is that had this been a five film maximum, I don’t think it gets nominated. Austin Butler delivers a balls-to-the-wall performance that should get him nominated for Best Actor, but with the field of films that Elvis has to contend with, I don’t see it winning.
If I had my say, this film would be one of the top five films in voting, Butler would be nominated for Best Actor, and Tom Hanks would be nominated for Best Supporting Actor. Their performances are packed with so much emotion that it was difficult to not love either character even though Hanks essentially played a villain.
The Banshees Of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
The more and more I’ve thought about The Banshees Of Inisherin, the more and more I dislike it. The thing is, I don’t get paid the big bucks. Unfortunately, I don’t decide what get’s nominated. While I thought it had good humor, the film became too outlandish about half way through when Brendan Gleeson is literally cutting his fingers off. What is the biggest aid to this Martin McDonagh flick is that 2022 lacked good comedies. The Banshees Of Inisherin is the closest we got to a good comedy in 2022 and the Academy likes that. Colin Farrell delivered a fine performance, but Barry Keoghan gave a masterful performance as the islands awkward dunce.
The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg)
Could we see two biopics get nominated this year? I think so. While I didn’t exactly fall in love with Sam Fabelman the character because he looked way too perfect, I did enjoy the film. Paul Dano, Michelle Williams, and Seth Rogen all gave great dramatic performances in side roles of The Fablemans. What really saved the film from my dislike of Sam Fabelman was the films ending. When he’s in John Fords office talking about the horizon in paintings, it’s a fantastic five minutes of cinema.
Everything Everywhere All At Once (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert)
If I were a betting man, I’d throw some ziti on Everything Everywhere All At Once winning Best Picture. It’s wildly original and a visually stunning picture with outstanding action and emotion. Many individuals in the film world have hailed this film as the best of 2022 and I’d hear the argument. Michelle Yeoh gives a lights out performance and one that makes you fall in love with her character. The Daniel directing duo really struck gold with this dimension switching comedy drama. Every time the setting switches, you’re further blown away by the outstanding cinematography. Just a true chefs kiss to Everything Everywhere All At Once.
Tár (Todd Field)
Tár was one of the few films that I did not view this year and I greatly regret it because I think I’d enjoy it. The drama chronicles the rocky career of fictional composer Lydia Tár, but has hints of obsession films like Whiplash and Black Swan. While I have not seen it, Cate Blanchett’s performance is being hailed as one of the years best. What makes me think Tár could win is because Tár does have a pretentious feel to it. The Academy gets a throbbing boner for pretentious films like The Shape Of Water, Chicago, and The Artist. Don’t be taken aback if Tár takes home Best Picture.
All Quiet On The Western Front (Edward Berger)
I love this film. Absolutely adore it. I’d say this is probably my pick for Best Picture. Edward Berger makes you the viewer fall in love with the idea of boys romanticizing war, but also feel the shock that they feel when they get their “welcome to war” moment of being bombed. The film’s pacing is magnificent and the minimal dialogue is substituted with facial expressions that say more than any words could. All Quiet On The Western Front feels so real and raw when the soldiers are battling hand to hand or have to stand lookout in the trenches. There are many gutting moments, but you rejoice when they have their few moments of peace amongst their newfound friends. Just a splendid work of cinema.
A fun note about All Quiet On The Western Front and if it wins is that at the 1929/1930 Academy Awards, the original All Quiet On The Western Front won Best Picture. Just for the sake of fun facts to tell people, I’d like this. But it’s also a stunning film that makes you grimace, cry, and feel eager because that’s how the main characters feel.
The Whale (Darren Aronofsky)
If you’d like to cry, The Whale is the film for you. There is so much I love about this Aronofsky flick. For starters, the four main characters give killer performances. You feel emotional recourse for each and everyone of them for the different situations they’re battling. Brendan Fraser gives his greatest every performance and Hong Chau continued her 2022 campaign with a tearjerking role. In addition, I loved the concept of this film being in one place and in five days. GENIUS. You feel like you go on a decade-long journey with four broken characters, but it’s only in five days.
Darren Aronofsky directs uncomfortable films about real people like Black Swan and Requiem For A Dream, and The Whale was no different. In the theater, I felt uncomfortable, but so invested at every twist and turn.
Top Gun: Maverick (Joseph Kosinski)
This isn’t a film that snobs in the Academy will necessarily love, but it’s what the people love, and that’s what is going to get Top Gun: Maverick nominated. A large aspect of the film was that there was so much hype built up due to it being continuously pushed due to Covid-19, and Top Gun: Maverick delivered on every little bit of that hype. It was fun, entertaining, and nostalgic wrapped in a two hour film. I dote upon the dynamic of Miles Teller and Glen Powell because their rivalry resembled a lot of Tom Cruise and Val Kilmer in the original Top Gun. There were a lot of films this year that were better if you saw them in theaters like The Batman or Nope, and Top Gun: Maverick falls in that category because of the exceptional action sequences.
She Said (Maria Schrader)
Much like The Banshees Of Inisherin, I didn’t love She Said. I liked the topic it covers because the Harvey Weinstein story was so massive and the women who went on record to speak out against him were remarkably brave along with the journalists who reported on it. I just think the film was a dud. That won’t halt the Academy from nominating it. It’s a “feel good” story about proper journalism that works to take down a scumbag elitist in Hollywood. What hurts She Said in my opinion is that Spotlight won in 2015. These two films are very similar. I’m not saying that Spotlight winning necessarily hurts She Said, but I doubt that two films about investigative, takedown journalism win less than ten years apart.
Nope (Jordan Peele)
While I’m not typically a sci-fi fan, Nope knocked my socks off. I think that if you didn’t view it in theaters, you didn’t get the full effect because there was some breath taking cinematography. Jordan Peeles style of directing and writing is so advanced that it makes you peel back the many layers of his films through multiple watches. With that being said, this isn’t a film like Memento or Tenet under the Nolan umbrella. Its complexities aren’t going to make you frustrated.
The biggest thing that Nope has in its corner is that the film is visually breathtaking and the Academy loves films of this ilk. We saw this on full display when Arrival was nominated in 2016 and Dune was nominated in 2021. I found Nope to be a refreshing blast of original ideas from possibly the best working director in Hollywood.
