Dollar General Bowl (Mobile, Alabama): Buffalo (10-3) vs. Troy (9-3)
The Dollar General Bowl kicks off at 7 PM on Saturday and can be found on ESPN. Troy makes their third appearance in the bowl hosted in their home state, a bowl they won in 2016 but lost in 2010. For Buffalo, the program looks to win its first-ever bowl game after losing their first two. The Bulls have already captured the first 10-win season in program history, while the Trojans look to complete three straight years with at least 10 wins and a bowl game victory under Neal Brown.
How They Got Here: Buffalo
The Bulls came out strong in 2018 to the tune of a 4-0 record. Two of those wins were over Group of Six teams in Rutgers (42-13) and Temple (36-29). Buffalo took care of the MAC East division with a 7-1 conference record. The Bulls held a comfortable 29-10 lead over Northern Illinois before the Huskies stormed back with 20 straight points to stun Buffalo, 30-29. The Bulls will have to put that heartbreak behind them if they want to capture the programs first bowl game victory.
Buffalo gets it done offensively with two possible future NFL players. The QB-WR duo of Tyree Jackson and Anthony Johnson has been a huge threat for the opponents Buffalo has faced this season. Jackson put up a big 2,857 yards passing with 27 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Those 27 passing touchdowns rank 14th in the nation. His favorite target and 2019 NFL prospect Anthony Johnson caught 11 of those touchdowns to rank 11th in college football. Johnson is 54 yards away from a 1,000-yard season receiving for a second straight season.
How They Got Here: Troy
The Trojans were a game away from punching a ticket to the Sun Belt championship before App State handed them their first conference loss. In a loaded Sun Belt East, Troy was 7-0 before losing to App State on the road. However, if anyone knows how to bounce back from a loss, its Troy. The Trojans won 5 straight after losing the first game of the season, then 4 straight after a close loss to Liberty. Troy has also proven it can hang with the big boys, beating Scott Frost and Nebraska 24-19 in Lincoln. Neal Brown has done an exceptional job with this program, going 30-8 since 2016. The Trojans have also won a bowl game in each of the last two seasons.
Troy wins games in a traditional matter: running the ball down your throat and then stuffing the opponent’s offense with a great defense. That Trojans defense ranks 29th in total yards and 23rd in fewest points allowed. On the ground, the offense is led by junior B.J Smith. Smith ran for 1,093 yards and 12 touchdowns in his first season as a starting running back. Standing at just 5 foot 9, Smith finds holes and hits them hard. He also averaged 5.5 yards per carry and added another 102 yards catching.
Player to Watch: Jaret Patterson (Buffalo)
With all the talk surrounding Jackson and Johnson in the passing game, freshman RB Jaret Patterson has been able to fly under the radar in his first season. Even though he saw more than 10 touches in just 8 games, Patterson still totaled 946 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns. Defenses often forget about the Bulls ability to run the ball, leaving Patterson big openings. In just his freshman season, Patterson has already had two career-defining games against Central Michigan (121 yards) and a jaw-dropping 187 yards rushing against Kent State. If the Bulls want to win, Patterson is going to play a huge role.
Gambling Lines
Buffalo opens as 2-point favorites, with the o/u at 51.5. Being favored is a huge advantage in the Dollar General Bowl specifically. The winner of the bowl has covered the spread every single time, with two pushes. Those contests haven’t been close at all, either. The average margin of victory has been 18.7, with the winning team averaging 41.1 points. These numbers would suggest backing the Bulls and punching the over. With two solid defensive teams, the over may be a bit tougher to hit, but I expect it will.
Prediction
As is the case for most bowl games, it’s about which team wants to show up one last time. For the Dollar General Bowl, both Troy and Buffalo ended their seasons with a bitter taste in their mouths. Expect both teams to come out slugging. With both defenses ranking in the Top 30 nationally, it’s about which offense can come out and make big plays. I like Buffalo’s offense a tad better in this department. For that reason, I give the Bulls the edge, 28-24.