Ah, the Pac-12. Conference of Champions. At least that’s what I’ve been told; I haven’t seen a Pac-12 Champion in a while, but, you know. Soccer, Bocci Ball, whatever. Today, we’re taking a look at QB Luke Falk, the Wazzu potential draft pick and prolific Mike Leach passer.
There’s been some conversation about Falk going to the New England Patriots. Now, don’t get me wrong; Falk holds the passing records for Pac-12 career yards and career passing TD’s. His stat line is really good for a college QB, but that is not atypical for a Mike Leach system QB. Falk is a good system guy with some upside, but lacks certain fundamentals I believe are essential to the pro game. Plus, I’m not stunned by big passing stats when Washington State passes close to 70% of the time.
And, this isn’t the first time people have gotten excited about Air Raid and Leach QB’s–looking at you, Sonny Cumbie, Taylor Potts, and Graham Harrell. Those three former Air Raid greats have a combined zero NFL starts. I’d argue Falk is headed in that direction. But nevermind me, let’s take a look at the tape.
The Good: Brains
They’re way up North there, Falk and his Coach. But fortunes of war don’t stop this Wazzu QB from carrying on the Leach tradition of understanding schemes and truly reading the field. He may not get enough credit for this because so much of it is done pre-snap, but Falk is able to read a defense pre-snap with the best of them. His delivery and technical flaws sometimes take away from his football IQ, but don’t be mistaken–it’s there.
There’s nothing flashy about this play, but it’s a play action 3-step (in a pro style) drop where Falk takes three reads, and checks down to his flat receiver. Too many quarterbacks in college fixate on one receiver and take a sack or, worse, fail to make a read at all. Falk’s ability to stand tall in the pocket after play action and go through his progression is notable. He understands what is happening pre-snap and post-snap.
And poise; my God, the poise.
Falk delivers a 40-yard strike with a linebacker coming straight through the A-gap to take his head off. He stands in the pocket, makes his read, and makes that throw before going airborne. This is an intangible, like football IQ, that gives Falk a serious edge on a lot of his competitors. This play alone says a lot about him as a player, competitor and teammate.
The Bad: Footwork
My God, his footwork. It’s astonishingly bad. Now, some may balk at his poor performances and say, “he played with a broken wrist all year, that’s not fair!” Well, he did. But his lousy footwork doesn’t have a strong enough correlation to his wrist for me to ignore.
This is the hallmark of Luke Falk footwork: he over-strides. It’s an extension of his already wide stance, but he overcompensates for what appears to be a lack of arm strength by using a wide stance. This problem displays itself in different ways. His deep-ball can lack air and distance because he doesn’t step through his throws, and his mid-range throws tend to sail on him.
Look at the way he delivers this ball. His front foot actually extends so far forward, his back foot falls to his right to stabilize himself; he’d literally fall down if he didn’t. And check out the placement. The receiver is running laterally toward the sideline, and he has to come back to a seriously under thrown pass. At this point in the game he’s already thrown one pick, and he it wasn’t his last. He had 5 INTs this game and would finish vs. Cal with an 11.0 QBR.
This is a perfect example of Falk’s wide stance in the pocket. It’s a tiny detail that evolves into a big mistake. This ball is under thrown by about 7-8 yards. Instead of leading the receiver, it’s behind the CB. Draft analyst Matt Waldman has harped on this point on Falk’s Junior reel. Falk’s feet are consistently wider than his shoulders, which means on the deep ball he just doesn’t have the pure arm strength to get it out there. These are picks in the NFL, and they’ll get him benched.
The In-Between: Running and Mobility
One arguably questionable aspect of Falk’s game is his mobility. Despite his poor footwork, he’s got fantastic pocket presence and really moves around well. However, when moving outside of the pocket, he looks like someone who’s never touched a football before.
Falk uses a fantastic forward shuffle to stay in the pocket and keep his eyes upfield, determines that there’s no open receivers, and takes off. That’s where his good decision making stops. There is a massive, huge, enormous hole of open space just to his left. Instead of spinning or even just planting and going left for an almost guaranteed first down, Falk puts his shoulder down and runs straight into a DE who’s been dominated and held at the line of scrimmage. He actually dips his shoulder like he’s taking a sack. This is as painful as watching Tom Brady run, without all of the mystique of Tom Brady.
This is beautiful. Falk just executed the in-game version of a QB drill that is performed at all levels of football. He feels the rush, evades to the inside of the pocket, and feels it expanding toward his left. He then delivers a great ball on the run, moving toward the LOS, and turns what should be a sack into a 5-yard gain.
He’s not a running QB, but he sure is mobile. At the professional level, that’s really what matters when discussing mobility.
Conclusion: Round 4-6
I was never a believer in 2018 being “the year of the QB.” I don’t believe that there’s enough outstanding talent under center alone to justify more than 2-3 picks in the first round. Where to put Falk in this hierarchy? I’m not high on Falk, but I’m not high on guys like him either. It took a lot for me to come around to understanding the Josh Rosen hype, and I truly believe Josh Allen is incredibly overvalued as well. The guys succeeding at the highest level right now are either exceptionally polished or physical specimens. I don’t see a Carson Wentz in this draft.
All that being said, I’d place Falk in the middle to late rounds. I don’t think enough teams see the capability to outperform NFL secondaries, and he’ll end up a journeyman backup. I hope for the best for him, but I don’t see a Tom Brady-story in his future, regardless of how badly Pats fans may want it.