Tonight we’ve got an ACC battle that is taking place at the PNC Arena in Raleigh North Carolina. The matchup is between the Duke Blue Devils and the NC State Wolfpack. Duke comes into this winning five out of their last six games. NC State is 1-3 in conference play so far. They sit at 11-4 on the season and have won seven out of their last ten games. The Blue Devils are a 3.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 144.5. With that being said here is my prediction for this ACC clash for Wednesday January 4th.
Duke Blue Devils
The Duke Blue Devils have played well in their first season without Mike Krzyzewski since 1979. First year coach Jon Scheyer sits at 11-3 so far in his first 14 games as a Duke head coach. Duke has wins against Ohio State and Iowa so far. Two out of their three losses have come against teams ranked in the top five this year (Kansas and Purdue). This is the Blue Devils’ second conference road game and their first one was a loss to Wake Forest. The Blue Devils are led by freshman big man Kyle Filipowski. Filipowski averages 13.8 points per game to go along with 8.6 rebounds on 43% shooting from the floor.
They are going to need someone besides Filipowski to step up especially during conference games. Duke has the two top recruits from last year’s class. Both Dereck Lively and Dariq Whitehead need to be more effective. Whitehead has double digit points in his last two games, while Lively has struggled scoring the basketball this season. The only other Blue Devil averaging double digits is junior guard Jeremy Roach. I really believe if it wasn’t for Roach, this young team would be one of the worst teams we have seen from Duke in a long time. Head coach Jon Scheyer has his work cut out though as the Blue Devils have won the last three meetings between them and NC State.
NC State Wolfpack
The Wolfpack go with a three guard lineup and for NC State they lead the team in scoring. Terquavion Smith, Jarkel Joiner and Casey Morsell are the three best players for the Wolfpack. Smith leads the team in points per game (18.1) and assists per game (5.3). All three guards shoot above 34 percent from beyond the arc (Smith 34.4%, Joiner 35.1% Morsell 47.7%). The Wolfpack have won a ACC home game and at PNC Arena is a tough arena to play at. NC State will be without starting forward Dusan Mahorcic.
NC State is going to have to keep this big Duke lineup off of the boards in this one. The tallest player NC State will have on the floor is 6″9 and that is forward D.J. Burns. NC State isn’t a deep team so they will need their big three and their starting five to log a lot of minutes which they already do. The Wolfpack have Smith Joiner and Morsell that average 33+ minutes per game. These guys will need to be on top of their game if they want to get the upset win over the Blue Devils.
Betting Trends
-Duke is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
-Under is 4-1 in Duke’s last 5 road games.
-Under is 4-1 in Wolfpack’s last 5 games overall.
-Wolfpack are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against Duke.
The Don’s Prediction:
I think the Wolfpack is going to keep this super close. With the line where it is I am taking NC State +3.5. Last time NC State was under a double digit underdog against Duke, they won the game outright at home. I think NC State has a shot to win this game, but I do see the Wolfpack covering the 3.5 line.
