In one of the most impressive runs in the history of college sports, the Kansas Jayhawks have won at least a share of 13 straight Big 12 regular season basketball championships. The last time the Jayhawks did not win the Big 12 was in the 2003-04 season in Bill Self’s first year in Lawrence. Since then Kansas has exerted their sheer dominance on the rest of the league. However, the historic streak may be in jeopardy this year.
Jayhawk Dominance
Thirteen straight years without a single down year is ridiculous by itself. Kansas has not finished lower than 14th in KenPom over that time period… 14th! Not only has Kansas been at the top of their game, they’ve been consistent at doing it. Bill Self was 221-11 at Allen Fieldhouse coming into this season. For those of you counting at home, that means he has more Big 12 championships than home losses in his career. The last time that KU didn’t win the Big 12, we were in the first term of George W. Bush’s presidency. While there have been some good seasons by various programs in the conference over this time span, no other program has been able to sustain a high enough level of success to give Kansas a run for their money. That might change this year as this might be the strongest Big 12 since the streak began.
Stronger Big 12
I’m not exaggerating when I say that this might be the strongest Big 12 that Kansas has ever competed in. The conference as a whole hasn’t lost a single non-conference game since December 9th. In every season of Kansas’ run, there has been at least one Big 12 ranked outside of the KenPom top 100, serving as a doormat of the conference; Iowa State is currently the lowest ranked Kenpom team in the conference at 74. For reference, the last time that Kansas didn’t win the conference in 2002-03, the AVERAGE KenPom ranking for the conference was 74.36. Obviously teams will drop as they beat up on each other throughout the conference schedule, but top to bottom, this conference is super competitive.
In my opinion the three biggest threats to Kansas are Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Baylor. These are the teams I believe have enough star power, veteran leadership, and good enough coaches to bring down the almighty Jayhawks. Trae Young is a superstar in the making for Oklahoma and is probably the best player in the Big 12. Jevon Carter leads a Bob Huggins Mountaineer squad that is good enough to compete in March. And then, of course, you have Scott Drew, who is always just hanging around with a competitive team.
Currently, the average KenPom rating for the Big 12 is 32, much much higher than any of the other conferences. All it would take for Kansas to not win the conference would be a couple of road slip-ups, which could easily happen. Last year the conference average was 32.67. West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma all pose the biggest threats right now, all ranking above 16th, while Baylor and Texas sitting at 28 and 32 respectively. Kansas still leads the conference at 6, but they have been struggling as of late.
Weaker Kansas
Despite picking up wins against lower tier power five opponents like Nebraska and Stanford and traditional powerhouses in down years like Kentucky and Syracuse, Kansas does not have a super impressive resume. The Jayhawks lost at a “neutral” Kansas City site to the Washington Huskies, who were expected to be amongst the worst teams in the Pac 12. They followed this up by losing at home to an Arizona State team that has come out of nowhere to take the country by storm. I’m not sure how much can be taken from these two losses, but it shows that there are some weaknesses for Bill Self’s team that need to be corrected.
By ESPN’s team class rankings, this was the first season since 2011 that Kansas did not finish in the top 20 in recruiting. However, their new recruits are essentially doing nothing right now. Kansas’ prized recruit, Billy Preston, is under investigation for impermissible benefits and it remains uncertain when he will return. Marcus Garrett, their other recruit, is averaging 3.9 points per game. That’s literally all they are getting from their freshman.
Well you may say, “Well they return a lot of veteran leadership so they don’t need the freshmen.” Spoiler alert: They don’t.
The only comparable years to this season in terms of production lost are 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2013. While ESPN’s recruiting data doesn’t go all the way back to 2005, in 2008 and 2013 the teams were supplemented by the number five and two classes in the nation. 2011 is the most comparable year to this one and Kansas only won a share of the conference in that season. Let’s take a look at the strength of the conference in those years:
Safe to say that the conference looks to be a lot better this year than in Kansas’ other down years. While it’s not impossible for them to win again, the road looks to be much more difficult.
Reinforcements Coming
Kansas’ best hope to repeat will be through the return of Billy Preston and the arrival of 2018 recruit Silvio De Sousa on campus. De Sousa from IMG Academy is the 28th ranked recruit in the 2018 class, but was able to graduate this month and reclassify. He arrived on campus just this week, but there has been no word yet on when the NCAA will make him eligible. Bill Self even said himself that even once he gets cleared, he will need a couple of weeks of practice before he’s ready. My guess would be that we see De Sousa at either the end of January or start of February. I have no idea if we will see Preston again this season or not.
Prediction
There is no team in the conference that I would bet on straight up against Kansas to win the conference. However, if given the option of betting on the field, I think I would take the field. This may be the toughest challenge Bill Self has faced in conference play and while there will be reinforcements coming at some point, it may be too late by the time De Sousa is ready. Before January 24th they will have had home games Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas State, and Iowa State, while also playing Texas, TCU, West Virginia, and Oklahoma all on the road. If the Jayhawks are not careful, they could easily slip up in couple of these road games and maybe even one of the home games, leaving no room for error come February. This Kansas team is very good, but will they continue the streak?