As we enter the 2020-21 NFL Playoffs, all eyes are on a quarterback whose team isn’t even participating. Superstar Deshaun Watson appears to have had it with the Houston Texans’ new management. Similar rumors swirled back when DeAndre Hopkins was traded before the season, but things seem to have escalated now. The newest source of frustration stems from Watson not being involved in the selection process for the Texans’ new head coach.
Watson is a top-level NFL QB. Rarely do teams land players that can transform a franchise quite like he can. This makes the trade potential for him enormous should he want out of Houston. With many teams likely to be interested in Watson, I’ve decided to tier the entire league, based on how likely I think they are to pursue the move, and how solid of a fit I think it would be. We’ll go from teams that I doubt will budge, all the way to the teams I think should be on the phone right now.
Tier 6: The Houston Texans
I’ll start bluntly; Deshaun needs to go. The Texans have been horribly mismanaged over the past few years and have done nothing to support their best player. Watson continues to compete and single-handedly keep his team in games that they have no business winning. We thought things were fractured when D-Hop got traded, and they’ve only gotten worse. It’s time to stop wasting Watson’s career. Get this man out of Houston and somewhere that will give him what he deserves.
Tier 5: Franchise QBs Secured
Teams Included: Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals
These eight teams shouldn’t spend a second thinking about Watson. All of the franchises listed above have clear direction and a viable option at QB for the future.
The Chiefs, Ravens, Cardinals and Bills have four electric stars in Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Josh Allen, respectively. Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers don’t appear to be going anywhere for Seattle or Green Bay. Finally, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert appear to be locks in Cincinnati and LA for a long time.
Making a play for Watson would be overthinking it for these guys. If your team is in this group, you’re probably just fine at QB. The focus should only be on obtaining pieces that surround these guys.
Tier 4: Not Out of the Picture, But Don’t Count On It
Teams Included: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars
Tier 4 has the highest number of teams, with varying reasons for each squad.
The first group I would bunch together would be the Browns, Titans, Rams, Vikings and Cowboys. All five of these teams would probably be better with Deshaun Watson. I won’t argue that. However, they have solid quarterbacks already in place, some of whom demand a lot of money as is. There are better areas for these teams to focus on, and while Deshaun would be fun, I think they’re better suited to stick with their guys for at least one more season.
The second grouping I’m making in this tier are the Eagles, Dolphins and Jags. All three of these teams have to play the ceiling versus floor game. We know what Deshaun is capable of in this league. For Philly and Miami, does that floor encourage you to quit on Jalen Hurts or Tua Tagovailoa just one year in? Would Jacksonville risk the potential of Trevor Lawrence to guarantee a sure thing in Watson? They are interesting hypotheticals for sure, but at the end of the day it would be stunning to see any of these franchises quit on their young QBs so soon.
Finally, we have to talk about the Bucs. They would be easier to place if we could figure out Tom Brady. After having a near MVP season, who knows how much longer Brady plans on playing for? There weren’t any signs of him slowing down this year. Watson won’t sit on the bench wherever he goes, and I think Tom has too much left in the tank for Tampa to pull the trigger on his successor.
Tier 3: Fit is There, but the Move Isn’t
Teams Included: Las Vegas Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions, New York Giants
Moving on to tier three is where I start to envision legitimate landing spots. These four teams are tricky to figure out. I can see reasons why, and reasons why not for each franchise mentioned above.
Starting with Vegas, you just know Jon Gruden wants to. Watson on the Raiders certainly makes them more dangerous than with Derek Carr. Where I see issues with this move are in the defense and the money. Getting Watson will require giving up a lot of draft capital. Vegas needs to revamp their defense before they can be taken seriously. If they traded for Watson, they’d really have to nail late-round picks to put together a unit that could stop other dynamic QBs. It could look a lot like what we’ve seen with Watson in Houston. Add that to what they have to pay both Carr and Marcus Mariota next year, and I can’t see it working out.
The Steelers and Lions are interesting as well. There’s a lot of talk that Matt Stafford may be on the move which would open the door there. The clock might be ticking on Big Ben in Pittsburgh. Both of these teams have good offensive weapons that Watson could inherit. Pittsburgh has a defense that could really complement an offense that lands Deshaun. Because of the uncertainty around each teams’ current QB status though, I feel there are options that make more sense than these two spots.
Ending this tier is the Giants. I wanted to put them into the next group, but something tells me they’re going to want one more year to assess Daniel Jones. We still haven’t really gotten to see what a healthy Jones/Saquon Barkley backfield can do in a bad division, and I’d imagine that New York wants to get a look at that before giving up significant draft picks.
Tier 2: Legitimate Contenders
Teams Included: Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New York Jets
Tier 2 is where I feel the question marks end. All of these teams should absolutely pursue Deshaun Watson this offseason. Each of these franchises either has the talent at skill positions (Denver and Carolina), the pedigree (New England), or the draft assets (Atlanta and New York) to be enticing to both Houston and Watson. The sole reason I kept these teams out of the top tier is the evaluation of the whole picture. When you could trade for a guy of Watson’s caliber, you expect playoff runs. Watson elevates the win projections for each of these groups substantially. I’m not sure he makes any of these groups immediate Super Bowl contenders, however.
Tier 1: The Teams That Should be Making Offers as We Speak:
Teams Included: San Francisco 49ers, Washington Football Team, Indianapolis Colts, Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints
In my opinion, Deshaun Watson better be starting at quarterback for one of these five teams when the 2021-22 season begins. Let’s take a closer look at each of these spots than we did with the other groups.
The Chicago Bears
How many times in life do you get a second chance? It should be as simple as that. I’ve been a bigger fan of Mitch Trubisky than most, but it’s clear Watson is an upgrade. Chicago should do everything in its power to recorrect 2017.
The Washington Football Team
The Football Team is an underrated great choice for Watson. I don’t think Alex Smith has much left in him. It’s been admirable watching him, but we all also collectively wince every time he gets hit. Dwayne Haskins is behind them. Watson can only help Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, and Logan Thomas. Add in their defense and this group would be the NFC East favorites next year.
The Indianapolis Colts
Phillip Rivers was on a one year deal, and there’s not a clear future at the position. While I do think this will likely end up being Carson Wentz’s new home, Watson has more value. Now that he’s in the game, the Colts would be crazy to not at least check in with their division rivals. The Texans also might be the only front office dumb enough to trade inside the division. Crazier things have happened.
The New Orleans Saints
Next would be the Saints. It seems all but confirmed that Drew Brees is hanging up the cleats after this season. I can’t see this team being satisfied with Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston when they’re already contenders. Adding Watson at this point of his career to this offense would almost be unfair. Watson, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas is video game-esque. They have a great defense and incredible culture. The rich tend to stay rich in the NFL, which is why I’m looking at this as a serious possibility.
The San Francisco 49ers
In my opinion, the perfect fit. There’s been a ton of talk about moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo. Sure there’s a lot of money to consider, but when you can compete for a championship, you figure the rest out later. Marred by injuries all season, the Niners still finished 6-10. Watson would get great weapons in George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel. He’d be backed by what I expect to be the NFL’s best defense next year when Nick Bosa returns. Most importantly, he’d be quarterbacking for Kyle Shanahan. Watson hasn’t played in a system as good as Shanahan’s in his entire career. This move by San Fran makes them my pick to come out of the NFC next season, no hesitation.