Football is back, baby! College Football kicks off with Week Zero on August 27, and I could not be more excited. There is nothing I enjoy more than coming together and watching the greatest sport on earth, eating some delicious tailgate cuisine with friends, and placing a bet on your favorite team. For the group that takes the sports wagering to the next level, or even for a living, I can’t wait to start delivering information and angles that you can use to sharpen your edge in football. Today, I will go over four NCAAF season win totals that I have my eyes on for this upcoming football season. Let’s dig in.
Oklahoma State: Under 9 (-135)
There are a lot of 8.5 lines out there, but I did find a 9 with some juice. Mike Gundy is returning four-year starter Spencer Sanders, so a return to normalcy under center will be expected. The supporting cast that surrounds Sanders will not be so familiar.
Sanders loses his 2nd Team All-Big 12 receiver Tay Martin who contributed 80 catches on 119 targets. Jaylen Warren departed for the NFL Draft after leading the way on the ground with 1,216 rush yards. The line loses 2 key starters at guard and center who combined for 97 career starts. Junior running back Dominic Richardson will lead the way on the ground with just under 600 yards in his last 2 seasons and junior Brennan Presley will take over Martin’s spot at WR1 with 50 catches in 2021.
The defense is where Oklahoma State truly shined last year. The defense is also the side that’s the biggest question mark. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles packed his bags to Ohio State, and Derek Mason was brought in for the DC job. While the defensive line is bringing back over 80% of its tackle production, the linebacking corps and secondary were absolutely gutted. Both starting linebackers from 2021 moved onto the draft, including All-American and four-year starter Malcolm Rodriguez. The Cowboys have to replace both All-Big 12 cornerbacks and the majority of their safety group, including All-American Kolby Harvell-Peel.
The home schedule presents a favorable edge for the Cowboys, but their road schedule is brutal, with trips to Oklahoma, TCU, Kansas State, and Baylor. Texas will be difficult, with the Longhorns seeking revenge after giving up 16 unanswered in the 4th quarter to lose 32-24 last season. I think the Cowboys will have a good season, but I can see an 8-4 finish with this schedule. If you can find a 9, grab that under.
South Alabama: Over 5.5 (-110)
The Jaguars out of the Sun Belt could possibly be a dark horse candidate this season to make some serious noise. The Jags were 5-3 before losing QB Jake Bentley to a torn MCL and dropping their final four contests. Former Toledo quarterback Carter Bradley should be under center this season and, under offensive coordinator Major Applewhite, expect some fireworks. Jalen Wayne, nephew of Colts great Reggie Wayne, will be taking over the void left at receiver by Jalen Tolbert. The Jaguars will look to improve their 3.0 yards-per-carry number with JUCO transfer La’Damian Webb, who led the nation in rushing last season.
The defense, led by Thorpe Watch list candidate Darrel Luter Jr., return most of their front seven, but will be missing some experience in the secondary. Luter and All-Conference safety Keith Gallman should lead this bunch and sure up the back end. I see some favorable schedule spots this year with Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, and Texas State at home. With a favorable home schedule and leadership at the skill positions, I think South Alabama at this number is great value. I have no problem taking the 5.5. over wins.
Kansas: Over 2 (-140) OR Over 2.5 (-120)
Lance Leipold fan here. What Leipold did at Wisconsin-Whitewater and Buffalo is nothing short of spectacular. He’s a true culture changer. However, Leipold knew he had a huge mountain to climb taking on this dumpster fire of a Jayhawks program. After an incredible 57-56 upset of Texas last season, Jayhawks fans have something they haven’t had in a long time: FAITH.
Returning 82% of their production this season, Kansas looks to move from rebuilding to improving their roster. With those returns come starting quarterbacks Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean and running back Devin Neal, who had over 700 rushing yards as a freshman in 2021. The defense must improve after giving up over 42 points a game last season and finishing 126th in total defense in the nation. Bednarik Watch candidate Kenny Logan Jr. will surely help the Jayhawks take the next step in improving things on that side of the ball. One of the keys to success Leipold mentioned wreaking more havoc on the defensive side. Ranking 130th in havoc last season, defensive coordinator Brian Borland has created some disruptive plays that should cause chaos on defense.
The big difference in these win numbers is the 2 to 2.5 mark. They play Tennessee Tech at home Week One and Duke Week Four at home, and those are two winnable games. If you have the two, you at least push vs if you take the hook, you need one more win. I personally don’t think it will matter because I see at least two more winnable games on this slate. I expect KU to make a leap this season, so I would take the over 2 or over 2.5.
LSU: Over 7 (+115) OR Over 6.5 (-110)
The Brian Kelly Era has officially begun in Baton Rouge. Kelly left South Bend after 11 years as head coach of Notre Dame to take over a Tiger program that was badly in need of structure and accountability. After LSU completed one of the most prolific seasons in NCAA history in 2019, the Tigers ran into a slew of issues on and off the field with their previous coach Ed Orgeron.
The Tigers return fifth-year senior Myles Brennan at quarterback and plucked former Arizona State signal-caller Jayden Daniels for some competition. I expect senior RB John Emery Jr. to lead the pack in the backfield as the bell cow. LSU also boasts one of the most talented receiving corps in the nation. Malik Nabers and Jack Bech should take the second year leap with more opportunities up for grabs. However, the straw that stirs the drink is the Biletnikoff and Maxwell Watch list candidate Kayshon Boutte. Boutte can help the Tigers become one of the most explosive offenses in the SEC if he can show he’s fully healthy from his season ending ankle injury last season. The tight ends and offensive line are a bit of a mystery with a lot of new faces and inexperience littered across the roster.
The defense, in my opinion, is the biggest enigma of this team. BJ Ojulari, Jaquelin Roy, and Ali Gaye form an explosive defensive line, but the liability in the secondary shackled their production last season. With a great hire in DC Matt House to lead this defense, MLB Mike Jones Jr. and others are excited to play for him, which should lead to better production. The secondary was able to get some really good transfers in Oklahoma State’s Jarrick Bernard-Converse and Louisiana’s Mekhi Gardner.
If the secondary can come together and the O-Line can improve throughout the season, LSU will have a very underrated team come October. I think they have a great chance of starting 4-0 and have very “upsettable” games at Florida and Auburn. I think the floor is 8-4, so give me the over 7 at plus money.
