Southeastern LA vs. Vanderbilt: 6:00 CST, Memorial Gymnasium, Nashville, TN
Happy Pre-New Year to all of our fellow readers and bettors! We started back on the right note with our official FFP by cashing with Kennesaw State against Indiana. Let’s see if we can end 2022 with another checkmark as we focus on the matchup between SELA and Vanderbilt. This game, much like our previous matchup, has the makings of a terrible spot for the Commodores to end 2022.
Southeastern is coming off of a nice win at home over Southern and went into the Christmas break covering 3 of their last 4 games. With a David Kiefer-coached squad, you can expect 100% hustle and effort from start to finish. SELA has already experienced what it was like to take down a heavily favored opponent by upsetting Wyoming as 22-point underdogs. The Lions spread the workload by having 9 players average 15 MPG, led by senior transfer Christian Agnew (12.1 PPG). South Dakota transfer Boogie Anderson has sparked the attack by leading the team in steals and assists per game.
Vanderbilt got back in the win column by defeating Alabama A&M 70-62 on 12/22, ending a 2-game skid. One of those losses was to Grambling at home as 13.5-point favorites. Led by senior 7-footer Liam Robbins, the Commodores can be a force in the post, taking advantage of SELA’s lack of size. I expect Vanderbilt’s methodical approach (234th in pace) to take precedence over SELA’s more frenetic pace (95th in adjusted tempo). The Commodores should dominate the rebounding game tonight, so too many missed opportunities by The Lions could prove costly.
THE MATCHUP
Taking a deeper dive into the game, we see two polar opposite sides of play, but the same level of Offensive Efficiency. Both teams rank within 3 spots of each other (SELU: 199, Vandy: 202) in OE, but SELA has a major edge in 3-pt % and FT %. Southeastern has the Conference leader in 3-pt % in Senior Guard Matthew Strange (51.1%). Both teams are middle of the pack in Turnovers Per Game, but SELA forces a little over 2 more steals per contest.
What I think it comes down to here is motivation. We already caught Indiana last Friday looking ahead to their break, cashing us a ticket. Do I think Vanderbilt will be motivated to beat a Southland scrappy team right before New Year’s? No. I do believe Vanderbilt has the edge in talent and size, but you have to have motivation to finish off a team to cover a spread. If Southeastern can knock down its 3s tonight and not get dominated on the glass, things can get VERY interesting in Nashville. I do not expect Vandy to try to beat a non-con team by margin right before their Conference play starts. Take the points and why not, sprinkle some on that ML at +980. Enjoy the show, and in case I don’t see you, HAPPY NEW YEAR from all of us at STUDENT UNION SPORTS!
