On Thursday at 7 pm the two top WAC contenders will battle to gain control of the Western Athletic Conference (WAC). Both teams have had excellent starts to the season. The WAC battle is one of the most intriguing matchups of Thursday’s college basketball slate. Both teams are undefeated in WAC play and have had impressive starts to the season. New head coach Paul Weir has energized the New Mexico State basketball program. The Aggies are (15-3) one of the hottest teams in college basketball winning 13 straight games, tied for the second-longest active winning streak in the nation. Weir’s 15 wins are the most for any first-year coach in the nation. In the Lopes finally year during the NCAA transition process, Dan Majerle has led his team to a 10-6 record while playing a very tough non-conference schedule. The Lopes have had great performances against Louisville, San Diego St., Penn St., and Arizona. The program has earned great compliments from Sean Miller and Rick Pitino. The GCU student section, the “Havocs,” have quietly become a national phenomenon in college basketball. However, the Lopes will be playing away from their hectic home atmosphere, and Dan Majerle will not be satisfied with moral victories when his team competes at the Pan American Center. The Aggies will look to strengthen their hold on the WAC, while the Lopes will try to take over the WAC by handing the Aggies their first home conference loss in 5 years. With control of the WAC on the line, college basketball fans should have their eye on the battle in Las Cruces.
Traditionally, the Aggies have been very good while playing in the friendly confines of the Pan Am. After the Aggies January 2012 loss to Nevada, they have won 36 straight conference games. Over the course of that stretch, the Aggies have dominated the WAC winning 4 regular season conference titles, and have made the NCAA tournament 4 times in the past 5 years. The Aggies have to have great success at home this season producing a perfect 8-0 record with notable wins against UC Irvine, UTEP, New Mexico, and Long Beach St.
However, in just their fourth year as a division 1 program, Grand Canyon has become a viable threat to end NMSU reign of dominance of the Western Athletic Conference. GCU is one of the most rapidly growing programs in all of the college basketball. The Lopes won 27 games last year and finished 2nd in the conference. The Lopes are just 0-4 in the road games this season but do not expect the Lopes to be intimidated by the hostile environment in Las Cruces. GCU is one of the most battle-tested mid-major teams; the past two seasons GCU has traveled to Duke, Arizona, Louisville, and San Diego St, the past two seasons. Aside from their abysmal 76-56 loss @ UC Riverside, the Lopes have not performed poorly on the road. It should help that the Lopes will travel to Las Cruces with their student section the “Havocs”. Arizona coach Sean Miller was astonished by the GCU fan support at McHale saying; In my eight years, I’ve never seen the student section in McKale filled with the visitors,” Arizona head coach Sean Miller said after the game. “They had a whole section, and you could hear them cheering. You can just tell that they have a great spirit about what they’re doing, and that’s to Grand Canyon’s credit.” The GCU fans have had an amazing impact on this team.
The Lopes should be motivated to win to get their first game in Las Cruces. Winning in Las Cruces is the next middle hurdle GCU needs to climb if they are going to win the WAC. In their first three trips to the Pan Am Center, the Lopes have lost by an average of 22 points. According to Kenpom, the Lopes only have a 21% chance of winning this game and are 9 point favorites. Here are the key matchups for this game.
Players to Watch:
There will be an epic battle of tremendous guard play in Las Cruces. The Aggies who have relied on their bigs in the past have had a lot of success to do their excellent guard play. Here some guys that the Lopes will need to limit in order to win. The Aggies have a lethal and efficient offense that has 5 guys averaging double figures. The Aggies have an effective field goal percentage of 53.8 which ranks 53rd in the country.
- Senior PG Ian Baker: 15.1points 4.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists
The senior point guard has been the leader of this Aggies team for the past two seasons. The floor general has been one the most complete players in the country. Baker has the ability to influence the game without having the score the ball. Baker’s passing ability is a huge reason why all Aggies starters are averaging double figures. However, Baker is the Aggies number one option in crunch time. Baker is a very good defender, and his matchup with DeWayne Russell should be fun to watch. - Junior SG Braxton Huggins: 15.5points 3.2 rebounds and 1.4 assists
Huggins has taken a big role increase playing under Paul Weir. Huggins has averaged 28 points during the first two games of conference play. Huggins has become one of the most efficient players in the country, shooting 47.8% from the field and 48.6% from three. Huggins as an elite true shooting percentage of 68.3 which is 23rd best in the country. Essentially, if you leave Huggins open he will make his shots. The Lopes will need to keep a huge tab on the junior guard. - Sophomore Forward Eli Chuha: 11.7 points 8.2 rebounds, 0.5 blocks
New Mexico St basketball would not be complete without a scoring presence in the post. Chuha is not as dynamic as former WAC POY Pascal Siakam, but he plays efficiently and scores when called upon. Chuha is shooting 60% from the field mainly because of offensive rebounding ability holding a 15.5 offensive rebound percentage that is 15th best in the country. The Lopes cannot afford Chuha to secure second chance opportunities. Chuha is a huge impact player on the glass.
The GCU offense is going to have to perform well in a tough environment. The Lopes are finally getting healthy with the return of WAC preseason player of the year Josh Braun. However, will help the Lopes maintain a consistent offensive flow? The Lopes are not shooting the ball very well compared to last year. The Lopes have 243 ranked effective goal percentage of 48.3, and have struggled to get good looks all year. Here are the players that can help turn things around for the Lopes.
- Senior PG DeWayne Russell: 23.9points 4.9 assists, 1.5 steals
Averaging nearly 24 points per game, Russell ranks 4th among national scoring leaders. At times Russell has single-handedly carried the Lopes offense. After watching Russell’s 40 game performance against Louisville, Russell is capable of dismantling any defense. Russell is going to have another brilliant game against a very tough defensive matchup. - Sophomore guard Josh Braun: 16.9 points 3.9 rebounds 0.5 blocks
The Lopes will need more than a stellar performance from Russell if the Lopes are going to upset the Aggies in Las Cruces. Braun struggled with injuries to begin the season, and was only able to play in 7 games. After having surgery to repair a meniscus injury, Braun seemed to be back at 100% during the Lopes conference opener against UVU scoring 31 points on 10-20 shooting. Braun long absence can be blamed for GCU’s early offensive struggles. In their lone conference game, the Lopes had an elite offensive efficiency rating of 114. The sample size is small, but Braun’s presence on the court makes a huge difference. Braun to be an X factor during tonight’s game. - Senior Forward Darion Clark: 7.5 points 7.0 rebounds
Clark has also struggled missing time with injury, and he has a big presence on the court. The graduate transfer from USC, provides veteran experience, leadership, and he has an ability to control the glass. This may be the first time in this series where the Lopes matchup decently in the front court. If GCU forwards Clark and Vernon keep the Lopes competitive in the rebounding battle, the Lopes should be in contention to win.
Prediction: Grand Canyon has been a rapidly growing program that is been accomplishing goals that are unprecedented for a transitioning D1 program. The Lopes next game at the Pan Am, is the next logical goal for Dan Majerle to accomplish. NMSU has been playing very well, and the program has new found energy with Paul Weir. This is the most interesting game on the college basketball slate. This a game that should be close throughout, and the battle between the Havocs and Panamaniacs. The added presence of Josh Braun is a huge benefit for the Lopes and will create a newfound offensive rhythm. The one mismatch the Lopes have on paper is the advantage in turnover metrics. The Aggies have a 20.6 turnover percentage of their offensive possessions ranking among the worst in the country, while the Lopes force 21.6 turnovers every 100 possessions that are 51st best in the country. NMSU will win the game if they dominate the boards, shoot over 40% from 3, and can force an underwhelming shooting performance from Braun and Russell. The Lopes will win this game if they win the turnover battle, maintain efficient offense, and can win the rebounding battle. My final prediction the Lopes shock the Aggies in a close one 73-71.