Louisville comes into this game with a 5-1 record and comes off a gritty performance where the Cardinal achieved a huge 71-64 win against Purdue. The Cardinals experienced early success despite major turnover from last year’s roster that includes the loss of Damion Lee, Trey Lewis, and Christian Onakue. Rick Pitino’s team lacks a definitive star, but Cardinals have a very deep roster that can go up to 9 deep. Having 9 guys who are capable of playing meaningful minutes is a bad matchup for the injury-plagued Lopes. Louisville Rick Pitino has enjoyed breakout seasons from performances from sophomore guards Donovan Mitchell. However, the backbone of this Louisville team has been its traditional tough defense. The Cardinals have an elite defense that is generated from their length, on-ball defenders, and their aggressive scheme. The Cardinals have elite rankings in many defensive categories: they have only surrendered 57.9 points per game rank 4th nationally, they are 5th in effective field goal percentage allowing opposing teams to shoot just 39.5%, ranked 14th in third opponent field goal percentage, and the Cardinals have number 1 rated adjusted defensive efficiency according to Kenpom. This not comforting news for the Lopes since the Lopes are coming off one of their worst shooting performances during Majerle’s tenure where they shot 31.6% (19-60) from the field and an abysmal 16.7% (4-24) from three during a 76-64 home loss to SIU Edwardsville. The Lopes will have to able to knock down their open shots in order to have a chance to upset Louisville Saturday night.
The Cardinals has one of the nation’s best on defensive units in the country. However, the Cardinals have been polarly inconsistent on offense. Essentially, the Lopes could be at mercy of Louisville’s shooting. Louisville has been one of the worst shooting teams as they rank in the bottom 250 nationally in all shooting categories shooting just 46% from the field, 65.2% from the free throw line, and just 31.9% from 3. Through the first few 6 games, Louisville has not been able to create consistent flow in the offense as the Cardinals have continuously settled for poor shots that are resembled by their 300th ranked 0.988 shooting efficiency. A big reason for their dysfunctional offense is the loss of star guards Damion Lee and Trey Lewis to graduation last year. Louiville is still looking to find their go-to scorer in crunch time. Junior guard Quentin Snider and Sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell have attempted to fill the footsteps of the former graduate transfers. Snider and Mitchell are Lousiville two leading scorers however the guards have been very inefficient. Donovan Mitchell is experiencing early success in his sophomore season compared to his disappointments freshman campaign. Mitchell is an off the ball guard who is Cardinal’s leading scorer averaging 12.3 points per contest and is Louisville’s second leading rebounder collecting 6.3 rebounds per game. However, Mitchell has struggled shooting the ball 33% and a below average turnover rate of 19. The matchup between Gerard Martin and Donovan Mitchell will be one of the key matchups that of the game. Moreover, Mitchell is Louisville best on-ball defender who is capable of creating big defensive plays displaying a 5.1% steal percentage ranking 23rd in the nation. Snider has transitioned from being the 6th man to being the Cardinals starting point guard. Snider is the Cardinals second leading scorer averaging 10.4 points per contest. However, Snider has contributed to the Cardinal’s ice cold shooting woes scoring his points while shooting a mediocre .282 from the field and has shot an abysmal .275 percent from three-point range while shooting a team-leading 29 attempts. Louisville makes up for their poor shooting by being one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Cardinals often rely on getting second chance points averaging 14 offensive rebounds per game which rank 14th in the country. Louisville’s deep frontcourt is led by 6-9 Jr Jalen Johnson, who is one of the best rebounders in the country averaging 8.6 rebounds per game and carries the nation’s 6th best offensive rebounding percentage of 18.5 percent. Johnson is also one of Louisville’s most efficient players; carries a significant offensive rating of 118 by averaging 9.9 points while shooting 63%. With injuries to Boubacar Toure and Matt, Jackson GCU has forced to play small for the majority of the year. GCU forwards Darion Clark and Kevonte Vernon will need to hold their ground to prevent Lopes from being dominated on the glass. GCU will not be able to be competitive if they allow Louisville to get second chance opportunities. GCU reserve forward Kerwin Smith may be asked to make significant contributions off the bench. The main mismatch the Cardinals have over the Lopes is their depth. The Lopes will need to find a way to slow down Louisville freshmen VJ King, who provides a huge spark off the bench. King only averages 13 minutes per game, but when he’s on the floor he has the usage rate of 25%. The matchup between King and Oscar Frayer is a marquee matchup to watch.
Dan Majerle would prefer to play the 14th ranked team in the nation at full strength. The Lopes may have to go battle without preseason WAC player of the year Josh Braun, who has been listed day to day and hasn’t practiced all week. Braun has been limited by a painful sore knee that caused him to exit Monday’s loss to SIU Edwardsville after only playing 10 minutes and no points in Monday’s home loss to Southern Illinois University Edwardsville. The Lopes have faced plenty of stretches of adversity thus far. Star point guard DeWayne Russell was forced to miss the team’s first two games against Duke and Penn St due to eligibility. Before the year, the Lopes lost two big contributors when Center Boubacar Toure (knee) and guard Kenzo Nudo (Achilles’ tendon). The cause of the injuries, freshmen Oscar Frayer and Fiifi Aidoo have been forced to play significant minutes. The Lope’s starters are going to need to be prepared to log in heavy minutes against a very deep and tough Louisville team. The Lope’s 3-3 start is not way Dan Majerle envisioned going into Louisville game. A strong showing against Louisville could be the main ingredient that will put the Lope’s season back on track. Last year, GCU was one of the most efficient teams on both sides of the court. To start the season, the Lopes have taken several steps back. The Lopes have shown glimpses of great defensive performances, but they have been plagued by periods of inconsistency. On defense the Lopes have given up 74 points per game, they have allowed their opponents to shoot nearly 40%, and they rank 209th in defensive shooting efficiency. The Lopes have had too many defensive breakdowns, and have given up many open shots. The Lopes have spurts of great defensive stretches in all of their games. GCU needs to avoid mental mistakes, and they Lopes can’t allow easy baskets to a struggling offense. Louisville does not present anything offensively that present major problems for the GCU defense. The Lopes can keep this game close if they play disciplined defense the entire game. In addition, the atmosphere of the GCU will help boost the GCU defensive effort.
However, it will be interesting to see how the Lopes will attack the Louisville defense. The Cardinals have arguably the best defense in college basketball, and the Lopes have been in a slump offensively. It is going to be hard for GCU to create quality offensive possessions without a healthy Josh Braun on the floor. The Lopes have historically been a great shooting team under Dan Majerle, but over the first six games, the Lopes have shot 43% from the field and just 30.7% from three which ranks 275th in the nation. The Lopes will need to break out of their shooting slump on Saturday, or the game will get out of hand very quickly. The Lopes will hope sophomore forward, Gerard Martin will rebind from 1-11 shooting performance on Monday. The Lopes will need Martin to be able to knock down three-point buckets. The main bright spot for the Lopes is senior point guard DeWayne Russell. In 4 games, Russell has 24.3 points, 5.8 assists, and is shooting 50% from the field. Playing against one of the best defenses will be a huge stepping in the development of their basketball careers.
The Lopes have a golden opportunity of hosting Louisville in their own building. The players are able to compete against national championship caliber competition, and it will move GCU closer to the goals of becoming a top 25 team. In order for the Lopes to pull off the monumental upset a lot of crazy things are going to need to happen. A fully healthy GCU squad would have a respectable shot of being the Cardinals. However, the injuries to Boulevard and Braun may be too much to overcome. However, I think GCU will be fueled with an abundance of energy to punch Louisville in the mouth. Expect this game to look similar to GCU’s first half performance against Duke. I expect GCU to keep this game fairly close, but the Cardinals pull away late to escape with a victory.