Last week, we had a lot of good and a lot of bad. On the positive side, the double-duty in Starkville both hit, with LSU covering and the under securing with ease. On the negative side, big favorites Wisconsin (-31) and Missouri (-21) both lost outright. Picking Missouri went against my philosophy of betting against recently ranked teams on the road, and I’ve learned my lesson. Week Nine provides another chance to get back to some winning ways. Remember, I myself won’t actually be betting (mainly because I don’t know how), but I’ll still offer my guarantees for each weekend. Here’s what we did last week:
Louisville (+24) vs. Clemson (LOSS)
Wisconsin (-31) at Illinois (LOSS)
Washington State (-12.5) vs. Colorado (WIN)
LSU (-18.5) at Mississippi State (WIN)
Over 61-Tennessee at Alabama (LOSS)
Ole Miss (+6.5) vs. Texas A&M (LOSS)
Missouri (-21) at Vanderbilt (LOSS)
Under 61.5-LSU at Mississippi State (WIN)
UAB (-16) vs. Old Dominion (WIN)
That puts us at 4-5 for the week and 12-14 on the season. Not great, but still hovering around .500. How about getting above that number this week? Again, take these bets at your own risk. I’m new at this. Now, without further adieu, let’s dive into my Week Nine Picks in the newest of Gray’s Guarantees.
Under 56-Arkansas at Alabama
It’s the Mac Jones show in Tuscaloosa this week with Tua Tagovailoa out with an ankle injury, and that means to me that we’re going to see a heavy dose of Najee Harris on the ground for the Crimson Tide against a Razorback defense that’s 100th in the country in rushing defense. On the flip side, Arkansas can’t score (93rd in scoring offense). I foresee a win for Alabama along the lines of 38-7 or 42-10, which would hit the under with a couple of points to spare.
Pittsburgh (-5.5) vs. Miami
I’m hedging my bets here that Pittsburgh will finally win by more than a touchdown. The last four wins are by margins of 1, 3, 3, and 7 respectively, and the Panthers welcome in Miami, who just lost last weekend against Georgia Tech in overtime. Kenny Pickett has played well lately under center for Pittsburgh, and the Panthers are finally figuring out how to run the football consistently. Call it a gut prediction, but I think Pittsburgh takes it by at least a touchdown.
Over 64.5-Texas Tech at Kansas
Did you see the Kansas offense last week? Thanks to new offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon, the Jayhawks put up 48 points on the Texas Longhorns thanks to impressive running from Pooka Williams and some poised throws from quarterback Carter Stanley. On the other side, Texas Tech is giving up nearly 40 points a game in conference play, so I’d be shocked if Kansas didn’t snag at least 35. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks are allowing nearly 44 points a game in Big 12 play, and Texas Tech has looked a lot better on that side of the ball since Jett Duffey came in at quarterback. There will be a whole lotta points put up in Lawrence on Saturday, so take the over.
Michigan (+1) vs. Notre Dame AND Under 52
We’re dipping back into double-duty, folks! Yes, we’re taking Michigan to beat Notre Dame. Why? Because Jim Harbaugh has to eventually win one of these games, I think the Wolverines get it done. If you watched the second half against Penn State, Michigan looked like an offense that was finally starting for figure things out. Shea Patterson was playing with some poise, and he was more willing to stand in the pocket and deliver throws than he’s been all season long. So yes, we’re got Michigan at home at night. In terms of the total, three of the last four times these teams have met, the totals have been 41, 31, and 19 (the other was a wild 41-30 Michigan win in 2013). Both squads have good defenses that limit scoring, and the forecast calls for rain. I see Michigan winning 21-17, which would give Michigan the upset and make the under hit with ease.
Michigan State (+6) vs. Penn State
The Spartans enter the week off a bye, and Penn State comes in following absolute slugfests against Iowa and Michigan. The Nittany Lions have played great defense this season (3rd in scoring defense), but Michigan State has been no slouch either (22nd in total defense). Whether or not Penn State wins, I’d be shocked if either squad wins by more than a field goal. Remember, the last two years we’ve seen a top ten-ranked Penn State team lose to Michigan State (unranked last year, #24 in the polls in 2017). This one will be much tighter than the six-point spread, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a win for Mark Dantonio’s squad.
Florida Atlantic (-14) at Old Dominion
It’s time to fade Old Dominion! The Monarchs are still 130th in America (that’s last) in total offense, and this week they take on Lane Kiffin’s Owls, who are scoring a little over 31 points per game and have averaged 34.7 in conference play. Old Dominion is scoring just over 11 points a game in Conference USA play, which isn’t a great sign. I’ve got Florida Atlantic winning by three touchdowns or so, because I always trust the bad teams to play badly.
Under 47-South Carolina at Tennessee
In SEC play, South Carolina is scoring 21.6 points per game, and Tennessee is averaging 12.5 points against conference foes. Neither of these teams have potent offenses and are dealing with some lingering injuries, so there shouldn’t be much scoring at all on either side. I think South Carolina wins, but it’ll be a low-scoring, ugly game in Knoxville.
Kansas State (+23.5) vs. Oklahoma
Can Kansas State stop Oklahoma? No. But can the Wildcats slow down the top scoring offense in the country? I think so. Kansas State comes in 19th in scoring defense, 10th in the country in team passing efficiency defense, and 2nd in 3rd down defense. While the Wildcats don’t have an offense explosive enough to pull off the upset (61st in scoring), I think the defense can do enough to limit Jalen Hurts and the Sooners. It may take a backdoor cover, but I see a final score along the lines of 38-21. That’d be enough to win if you pick Kansas State against this huge spread.
That’s it for this week. Let’s go 9-0 and come back and do it again next week. Enjoy the college football, folks!
