Folks, I have a confession to make–I had a great time last weekend placing bets on college football games at a casino in Biloxi, Mississippi. As I said in this week’s edition of The Hangover, it was my first time doing so and I thought it went pretty well. In fact, it went so well that some of my friends have been texting me all week asking who I would pick this weekend. Now, obviously I’m getting involved a little late in the season, but better late than never, right? These picks against the spread will come out every week, usually on Thursday morning so that you can get ready for the weekend. I myself won’t actually be betting (mainly because I don’t know how), but I’ll still offer my guarantees for the weekend. Last Saturday, I dished out a 5-4 record:
Bowling Green (+46) at Notre Dame (LOSS)
South Florida (-6) vs. Connecticut in the First Half (WIN)
Colorado (-3.5) vs. Arizona (LOSS)
Maryland (-13.5) at Rutgers (WIN)
Under 48.5-Auburn at Florida (WIN)
Florida (+3) vs. Auburn (WIN)
Under 46-Air Force at Army (LOSS)
Illinois (+14) at Minnesota (LOSS)
Under 47.5-Iowa at Michigan (WIN)
I’m pretty proud of that start but, again, take these at your own risk. I’m new at this. Now, without further adieu, let’s dive into my Week Seven Picks in the first ever edition of Gray’s Guarantees.
Missouri (-12) vs. Ole Miss
Kelly Bryant is expected to play after a dirty tackle last weekend against Troy and, with him at the helm, the Tigers should score all over a Rebels squad that’s 97th in total defense. While Ole Miss has had a lot of success running the ball lately, expect that to change against Missouri, who is 23rd in the country in rushing defense and third in total defense. The Tigers should win by two touchdowns at least, which will snag you the cover.
Florida (+13.5) at LSU
Yes, I’m going back to the Florida well this weekend. Did you know that the average margin of victory in the last ten meeting between these two is 8.8 points? Yes, I know LSU’s offense has been on fire this season and Joe Burrow looks like a Heisman contender, but this Florida defensive front is no joke. I think the Gators are able to put pressure on Burrow and the Tigers’ offensive line all night long and keep it close, although LSU does end up winning the game.
Notre Dame (-10.5) vs. USC
The Fighting Irish defense has looked legit all season, and they’ll face USC quarterback Kedon Slovis returning from injury. At night on NBC, I’m not sure the Trojans have enough to stick with Notre Dame and Ian Book. Brian Kelly’s squad is first in the country in turnover margin, and USC is 127th in turnovers lost. Not a great harbinger for things to come for Clay Helton and company this weekend.
Over 52.5-Mississippi State at Tennessee
Tennessee is 66th in rushing defense, and the Vols face a talented running back this weekend in Mississippi State’s Kylin Hill. On the flip side, the Bulldogs are 76th in team defensive passing efficiency, and new Tennessee quarterback Brian Maurer showed off some talent last weekend against Georgia. Basically, this one feels like a 34-30 kind of game, because I think the Bulldogs will run all over the Vols and Tennessee will throw everything they have on offense out there knowing this is one of the few chances they have to snag a conference victory.
Over 49.5-Rutgers at Indiana
In Big Ten play, Indiana has allowed 51 and 40 points while the Scarlet Knights have given up 30, 52, and 48. Rutgers won’t score very many, but I think they’ll at least put up two touchdowns against the Hoosiers porous defense. That means you’ll just need Indiana to find 36 points, which they may get in the first half, for this over to hit. Keep in mind that the last two times Indiana hosted Rutgers, the Hoosiers scored 41 and 52 points.
Temple (+5.5) vs. Memphis
I have a policy that I always go against teams newly ranked in the top 25 that go on the road and, sorry Memphis, but you fit the bill. I like Tigers quarterback Brady White a lot, but the defense once again has some issues and Temple signal-caller Anthony Russo has thrown for ten touchdowns in three career games against ranked opponents. I think the Owls win straight up and further throw the American into chaos.
Under 40.5-Michigan State at Wisconsin
This is so, so dangerous, but I like the under in this game. The Badgers are first in rushing defense and total defense, and we all know about Michigan State’s issues moving the football. On the flip side, the Spartans are 4th in rushing defense and 7th in total defense, and they did a nice job for three quarters against Ohio State’s playmakers (the second quarter, of course, being when things fell apart). This feels like a 21-3 kind of game here with not much scoring and long, clock-churning drives by Wisconsin.
Texas (+11) vs. Oklahoma
Too many points. The last five times these teams have met at the Cotton Bowl, the margins of victory have been three, five, five, seven, and five. When the talent is even remotely close to even, the Red River Showdown is close. While the Oklahoma defense has improved significantly thanks to defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, Sam Ehlinger is still very talented and still has a plethora of good receiver. Texas’ defense is banged up, but we’ve seen Tom Herman stick around in games where he’s an underdog before. Oklahoma wins, but probably by a touchdown.
That’s it for this week. Let’s go 8-0 and come back and do it again next week. Enjoy the college football, folks!