It’s time to take a long look in the mirror. The last two weeks, we have finished one game below .500. Last week’s effort again provided some good and some bad. On the positive side, we nailed Michigan against the spread and correctly predicted Kansas State to cover. On the negative, we were just 1-3 on over/unders and completely whiffed on Michigan State. Week Ten provides the chance to get finally get back on track. Remember, I myself won’t actually be betting (mainly because I don’t know how), but I’ll still offer my guarantees for each weekend. Here’s what we did last week:
Under 56-Arkansas at Alabama (LOSS)
Pittsburgh (-5.5) vs. Miami (LOSS)
Over 64.5-Texas Tech at Kansas (WIN)
Michigan (+1) vs. Notre Dame (WIN)
Under 52-Michigan vs. Notre Dame (LOSS)
Michigan State (+6) vs. Penn State (LOSS)
Florida Atlantic (-14) at Old Dominion (WIN)
Under 47-South Carolina at Tennessee (LOSS)
Kansas State (+23.5) vs. Oklahoma (WIN)
That puts us at 4-5 for the week and 16-19 on the season. Not great, but still hovering around .500. How about getting above that number this week? Again, take these bets at your own risk. I’m new at this. Now, without further adieu, let’s dive into my Week Ten Picks in the newest of Gray’s Guarantees.
Appalachian State (-15) vs. Georgia Southern
Appalachian State is undefeated and winning Sun Belt games by an average of 25.3 points. On the flip side, Georgia Southern has been remarkably average, winning games against poor South Alabama and Coastal Carolina teams by three points each. Plus, the Eagles are just 92nd in scoring offense in the country and 121st in total offense. The Mountaineers are 18th in scoring defense and a decent 28th in total defense. Plus, it’s at home on a Thursday night in Boone. Appalachian State runs it up against Georgia Southern for the easy cover.
Indiana (-11) vs. Northwestern
Is Indiana, like, good? The Hoosiers are already bowl eligible and are averaging 35.7 points during a current three-game winning streak. On the other side, the Wildcats are awful. Northwestern is averaging 7.6 points per game in Big Ten play and is 129th in the country in total offense (only Gray’s Guarantees darling Old Dominion is worse). In Bloomington, take the home team to win by at least two touchdowns.
Kansas (+6) vs. Kansas State
We’ve got a newly-ranked team on the road, folks! This feels like the kind of game Les Miles has been preparing to win all season, and the Jayhawks have been much more dynamic on offense since Brent Dearmon was promoted to offensive coordinator (42.5 points per game). Throw in the fact that Kansas State has to go on the road in a rivalry game the week after a huge upset at home against a top ten team, and this one is PRIMED for an upset. Even if Kansas State wins, it’ll be inside the number. Kansas covers.
Over 71.5-SMU at Memphis
Gameday is coming to Beale Street this weekend, so you know both of these squads are ready to dip deep into the playbook on primetime television. SMU is averaging 43 points per game this year, and the Tigers are scoring 39.5 on their own. On the flip side, the Mustangs are allowing 27.5 points in AAC play while Memphis is giving up 27.8. I think we’ll see a ton of points in this one. I’m not sure who wins, but expect a final score of 48-45 or something along those lines.
Auburn (-19) vs. Ole Miss
The last time Auburn got beaten up against Florida, the Tigers came right back and beat Arkansas by 41 points. Plus, Bo Nix has been a different quarterback at home (63.5 completion percentage, 703 yards, four touchdowns), and the Ole Miss defense isn’t great against the pass (87th in team passing efficiency defense). Ole Miss might run the football with some success with the Tigers’ defensive line a little banged up, but I still expect Gus Malzahn to come out firing and get the cover, even with the big number.
Washington (+3.5) vs. Utah
For three straight weeks, we’ve seen top ten teams fall to unranked squads. This week, there are two options–Oregon against USC and Utah against Washington. I’m going to hedge my bets and take the Huskies here to pull off the upset or at least keep it within a field goal. Not only has Washington dominated this series (12-1 overall), but they’re coming off a bye week after a disappointing loss to Oregon. Recent trends suggest Utah should win this handily, but my gut says to stick with Chris Peterson in a big home game.
Under 58-Nebraska at Purdue
Both of these teams are 1-3 in their last four. In that stretch, Nebraska is averaging 14.5 points per game and Purdue is scoring 18.3 points per contest. Purdue is still dealing with a ton of injuries, and the Cornhuskers just aren’t very good. That means we’re going to see an ugly, gross, low-scoring game in West Lafayette on Saturday. If one of these teams gets to 28 points, I’ll be shocked.
Florida (+6.5) vs. Georgia
We’re riding the Florida train once again! It feels like a Georgia pick, but Florida is returning Kadarious Toney from injury and get Jabari Zuniga Jonathan Greenard back too. These are two solid defenses (the Bulldogs are 5th in scoring defense and the Gators are 12th), so points will be at a premium. Plus, Jake Fromm has looked shaky lately, and that doesn’t bode well against a ferocious Florida front seven and a solid secondary. I think Florida wins but, even if the Bulldogs pull it out, it won’t be by more than four points.
That’s it for this week. Let’s go 8-0 and come back and do it again next week. Enjoy the college football, folks!
