Line: UCF @ SMU (+14.5) (moneyline: SMU +465) (UCF -630) Total 73:

When: 6:15 p.m. Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Broadcast: ESPN2:

A huge matchup in the American Athletic Conference will broadcasted on ESPN2 when the 18th ranked Golden Knights travel to Dallas to face the SMU Mustangs. SMU has been one of the biggest surprises in the American Conference, posting a (3-1) conference record and sitting at  6-2 overall. The Mustangs are undefeated at home this season and have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 home games.

UCF head coach Scott Frost has orchestrated one of the best turnarounds for a program in recent memory. The Golden Knights had a winless (0-12) record two years ago, but now the Golden Knights are a leading contender for  the Group of 5 bid to a New Year’s Six Bowl Game. This is one of the biggest matchups of the American Athletic Conference and is easily the most intriguing Group of 5 matchup on the college football slate.

The UCF offense ranks towards the top in efficiency and is the top scoring offense in the nation, averaging 49.6 points per game. The Knights are lead by sophomore quarterback Mckenzie Milton, who has the top passer rating in the conference at 199.7. Milton has thrown the ball for 1,977 yards, while throwing for 19 touchdowns and completing 72.3 percent of his passes. UCF also has potent ground game that is averaging 213.3 yards a game on the back of halfback Adrian Killins. The Golden Knights have been dominant on offense all year. However, the most remarkable stat surrounding this unit is that they have only committed 5 turnovers all year.

Expect UCF to be able to move the ball at ease against SMU defense. The Mustangs have been horrible on third down, allowing opposing offenses to move the chains 68% of the time. The Golden Knights rank second in the country in yards per play and SMU’s poor tackling has allowed them to be gashed consistently on the defensive side of the ball. SMU has given up 6.2 yards per play on the season, ranking 102nd in the nation.

The Mustangs will need to have a huge game from their pass rush. SMU is tied for the most sacks in the conference with 24 and they have been able to pressure opposing quarterbacks on over 40% of opposing dropbacks. SMU defensive end Justin Lawler leads the conference with 7.5 sacks and linebacker Kyron Walker has been able to get 4 sacks of his own. Look for SMU to attack the Golden Knights with different blitz packages in order to force Milton into mistakes. SMU’s productive pass rush gives them a fighter’s chance in stopping this UCF offense.

SMU will counter UCF’s elite offense with a prolific attack of their own. SMU is ranked 8th in the nation in scoring offense, putting up 41.1 points per game, ranking 14th in yards per play at 6.5, and being 7th in passing offense, gaining 333 yards per game through the air. The Mustangs feature sophomore QB Ben Hicks, who has made major improvements from his freshmen season. Ben Hicks is completing 60.1 percent of his passes for 2,305 yards, 19 touchdowns and six interceptions. Hicks has two or more touchdown passes in 10 of his last 11 games.

SMU quietly has the most explosive wide receiver duo in the country featuring Trey Quinn and Courtland Sutton. If this game turns into a shootout, the Mustangs are going to need their big play receivers to have huge games. Trey Quinn, a former LSU transfer, is currently the conference’s top receiver, averaging 9.9 receptions per game for 109.3 yards per game with 874 yards and seven touchdowns. Quinn is a reliable possession receiver, who is an unbelievable route runner that can open against zone and man coverage.

However, Quinn may not be the Mustangs most talented receiver. The number one receiver role is taken by 6’4 wideout Courtland Sutton. Sutton is a remarkable talent that possess NFL elite size, strength, and speed. Sutton may be the first receiver taken off the board during next year’s NFL Draft. Sutton leads the conference in 16.42 per receptions (among eligible receivers) and has scored 9 touchdowns on the year. In addition, James Proeche has been a reliable weapon out of the slot.

The SMU receiver tandem should feast on an average UCF secondary that is surrendering 215 yards per game. Ben Hicks should have time to pass against a defense that is sacking the quarterback at a low 4.36% rate. UCF tends to play a preventative soft style cover 3 defense that focuses on stopping run and allows offenses to complete short passes through the air. In order for SMU to find offensive consistency, they will need to establish the run against the nation’s 36th ranked rushing defense. The Mustangs will need their big targets, Trey Quinn and Courtland Sutton, to make big plays in the end zone. Ben Hicks and SMU will need to execute down the stretch if they’re going to upset the #18 ranked Golden Knights at home.

Final Prediction

This game is almost guaranteed to be a high scoring shootout. SMU will have to avoid having a sluggish start on offense, or this game could get out of hand fairly quickly. The Group of 5 will able to showcase itself on ESPN with two of the country’s most exciting teams. SMU has the firepower to keep up with the Golden Knights, and I believe this will be a close game throughout. This game will be alot closer then the experts think and I already made my pick in my “Beat the Spread” column.

In the end, I think the Knights come away with an epic win in a colossal shootout in overtime 69-65. Put the Golden Knights on upset alert, we are gonna have a good one tonight in Dallas.