Over the course of the year, you will see me publishing college football articles about the best gambling wagers in college football and basketball season. On the offshore betting site Bovada, they have posted over/under individual statistics props. I’ll either write an article or tweet out any college football wager I make throughout the season. You can follow me on twitter @amontgomerylive.
Baker Mayfield: OVER 3550.5 passing yards (5 Units). Over total passing TDs (over 36.5) (1 Unit). Heisman winner (+800) (1 unit)
Baker Mayfield comes back to Norman for his senior year hoping to lead the Sooners to prominence in the first year of the post-Bob Stoops era. Oklahoma’s three-year starter is a front runner to win the Heisman, priced as the third choice at 8/1. As a sophomore, he took the college football world by the storm passing for 3,700 yards and 36 touchdowns. One can make a legitimate argument that Baker Mayfield was the best passer in college football last year. Last year Mayfield put up monster numbers, throwing for 3,965 yards and 40 touchdowns, while also completing 71% of his passes and holding 89.5 total QBR. He was rated as the most efficient passer by Pro Football Focus, who gave Mayfield an overall passing grade of 90.9. He was the best deep passer in the college game last year, completing 63 percent of his passes that were 25 yards or more downfield and averaged 11 yards per attempt. This new Mayfield should continue to improve on those numbers. New head coach Lincoln Riley will rely on Mayfield to carry the offense after losing runningbacks Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine, and star receiver Dede Westbrook to the NFL draft. Oklahoma ran the ball just above 60% of the time last year and put the ball on the ground 85% of the time in the red zone. Without Mixon and Perine, look for Lincoln to revolve more towards his Air Raid philosophy. The best factor surrounding the Oklahoma offense is the strength of its offensive line and the fact that they play in the BIG 12 conference. Oklahoma will still be a two-dimensional team as the run game should still be effective running behind the best offensive line in the conference, and arguably the nation. All-American left tackle and future first rounder Orlando Brown should keep Mayfield upright. In addition, Mayfield plays in a conference that simply does not believe in defense. This season Mayfield will face 7 secondaries that ranked in the bottom 100 in pass defense. Mayfield has made significant improvements in his game every year and he should surpass the 3550-yard mark fairly easily. Oklahoma will rely on Mayfield to have huge games to win shootouts in the BIG 12. Mayfield should utilize 6’6 tight end Mark Andrews as one of the best red zone targets in the country. Mayfield will have the numbers to put him in the Heisman trophy discussion, and if he can lead the Sooners to the college football playoff he is the one raising the trophy in December.
Other Props: Nick Chubb under 1100 rushing yards (2 unit)
Before you call me the hater for taking the under, Nick Chubb is a player that I want to root for. However, the total is simply too high here. Jacob Eason has taken many strides in spring practice and Georgia will not be overly reliant on the run. Last year, Nick Chubb failed to show the explosiveness that he showed during his freshmen year, and he his production dropped to 5.0 yards per carry. Georgia has a very talented backup in Sony Michel who will take away from Chubb’s workload. Most importantly, I simply do not trust Georgia’s mediocre offensive line. Nick Chubb is a good story to root for, but the smart money is on the under here.
Saquon Barkley Over 15.5 touchdowns
Penn State’s 5’11 223 running back is an absolute beast. Barkley is coming off a monster season where he ran for 1496 yards and 18 touchdowns. Barkley is a workhorse back and one of the most heavily used players especially at the goal line. Barkley is running behind a dominant Penn St offensive line that returns 4 starters who have combined for 54 career starts. Penn St is going to have a top 10 offensive in 2017 and Barkley should find himself in the end zone quite often. Bet the over.