The first College Football Playoff rankings are out and, naturally, everybody is reacting and overreacting to the committee’s initial Top 25 rankings. After watching the Rankings Reveal Show on ESPN and then American Horror Story with a group of friends, I’ve finally had time to relish the first rankings. Here were my first reactions to the committee’s polls:
The Committee Got the Top Six Completely Correct
Believe me, when I tweeted this opinion out and put it in some fraternity GroupMe chats, I was absolutely ripped apart. University of Alabama students and fans were livid about being ranked number two behind Georgia; I even had a professor who gave an angry yell when the rankings appeared on the screen. I’ll stand by my opinion, though–the committee for the top six is 100% correct. Here were their rankings:
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Notre Dame
- Clemson
- Oklahoma
- Ohio State
Georgia over Alabama makes complete sense based on resume. While the eye test favors the Crimson Tide, I don’t believe in using that metric to differentiate teams with alike records until every game has been played.
Georgia has arguably the best win in the country, on the road against Notre Dame, plus a blowout win over 16th-ranked Mississippi State. Alabama doesn’t have any CFP Top 25 wins, although Nick Saban’s squad will have three opportunities in November against LSU, the aforementioned Bulldogs from Starkville, and Auburn (Happy 66th Birthday to Nick Saban, by the way). Notre Dame clearly has the best resume of any one-loss team. They have the most Top 25 wins of anyone cracking the first ten, plus they have the best loss in the country (at home by a single point to #1 Georgia). Clemson at four makes sense too. While they own the worst loss of the top six, they also have two top 25 wins; plus, I’m sure the committee took into account that the Tigers weren’t at full strength in their loss against Syracuse. Kelly Bryant is back now, so we’ll see how good Clemson actually turns out to be down the stretch. Lastly, Oklahoma over Ohio State shows that the committee is putting value on head-to-head, which is the correct move. While I don’t think anybody doubts that, right now, Ohio State is a better team, you simply cannot put the Buckeyes ahead of the Sooners after their home loss to the fighting Baker Mayfields in Week Two. All in all, I have zero qualms with the top six. I think the committee got it right.
Iowa State is Ranked Way Too Low
The first note I made while watching the Rankings Reveal Show was that I thought Iowa State was ranked too low which, to be honest, shocked me more than any note I’ve ever written. The Cyclones have TWO Top Ten victories, including one on the road against Oklahoma; that’s more than any team in the rest of the Top 25.
Yeah, I get that Matt Campbell’s squad lost to Texas and Iowa, but this team has just been different since Kyle Kempt took over the starting quarterback job. The defense is also pretty dang salty, something that usually isn’t said about Big 12 teams. At worst, Iowa State should be the highest-ranked two-loss team. The fact that they’re behind Auburn is ridiculous. At the very least, they should be ranked above Washington and Virginia Tech. Why? Washington’s best win is either Fresno State or UCLA; Likewise, Virginia Tech hasn’t beaten anyone of note other than West Virginia (a good win for sure, but nothing compared to beating TCU or Oklahoma) and Boston College (who is suddenly good). I’m not advocating for Iowa State to be in the Top Ten but, if wins really matter to the committee, the Cyclones should be higher.
The Pac-12 is Beyond Screwed
We’ve known this, but the first rankings make it official–the Pac-12 isn’t making the college football playoff. The previously mentioned Washington Huskies are the highest-ranked team from out West and they’re 12th. With Chris Peterson’s team’s remaining schedule (Oregon at home, at #21 Stanford, and Utah and #25 Washington State at home), there will be a chance to move up some, but not nearly enough to challenge for a playoff spot. Every other team has two or more losses, so it’s safe to say that the Pac-12 is dead. Knowing this, I say it’s time we root for some chaos. Anybody else really want to see Khalil Tate and Arizona make the Pac-12 title game, or is it just me?
Everything is in Place for the SEC to Get Two in the Playoff
The happiest man in America tonight is Southeastern Conference commissioner Greg Sankey. Why? Because the groundwork is laid for the SEC to get two teams in the playoff as long as Alabama and Georgia both reach the conference championship game undefeated. If both
squads do that, I strongly believe Georgia will stay number one and Alabama will still number two going into the first weekend of December. Vegas puts the Bulldogs at 6.5-point underdogs against the Crimson Tide if the two meet in Atlanta, so let’s say Nick Saban does indeed defeat Kirby Smart. If that happens, can you honestly see Georgia dropping from the top ranked team in America to out of the playoff? I just don’t. The only way it could happen is if Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Clemson all win out and Notre Dame loses a game somewhere. I’m not buying that scenario, though, so I’m now pretty certain the SEC will get two teams in the playoff is both Alabama and Georgia run the table in the regular season.
The Polls Mean Nothing, But They Also Mean A Little Something
Everybody says this poll means nothing and, in a way, that’s correct. The committee claims that they re-rank the Top 25 each week and don’t look at the previous week’s rankings when they do. Still, this first poll proves to be a good litmus test for what playoff contenders need to do down the stretch of this season. Teams like Alabama and Wisconsin now know how many CFP ranked teams are potentially waiting in the wings. Ohio State knows that they need some sort of extra data point to trump the head-to-head that Oklahoma has over them. Penn State, ranked 7th, knows that it needs some extra help to have any sort of prayer for the playoff. Lastly, Georgia knows that as long as Notre Dame keeps winning, they’re above the Fighting Irish. Sure, this first poll means nothing in the grand scheme, but for teams across the country, it provides a hint of what they need to do to be one of those four names called on December 3rd.