The CFP committee just released the second edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings on ESPN, so it’s time for my weekly reactions to the updated Top 25. Here we go:
Head-to-Head is the Most Important Metric
My hat’s off to the committee, who continues to set the precedent that head-to-head contests matter the most when ranking teams with similar records. Newly-ranked Iowa catapulted up to 20th this week, one spot ahead of an Iowa State team that it beat in Ames early in the season. Similarly, Michigan State got the jump over Penn State after winning this past weekend, flying all the way from 24th to 12th. Ohio State fell from 6th to 13th, but stayed ahead of the Nittany Lions because of head-to-head. We’ll see if this evidence holds true through the final month of the season but, right now, it appears that the committee holds head-to-head above any other metric used to rank teams with similar records.
The Committee Didn’t Quite Nail the Top 6 This Time
Last week, I wrote that I thought the committee nailed the Top 6. This week, I’m not quite as bullish, mainly because I believe that Miami (FL) deserves the six spot that TCU currently holds. Here’s what the committee put for its Top 6:
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Notre Dame
- Clemson
- Oklahoma
- TCU
As it stands, both teams have a CFP Top 25 win; TCU’s is over Oklahoma State (ranked 15th) and Miami’s is against Virginia Tech (ranked 17th) this past weekend.
I thought Miami would be ranked in the Top 6 after beating Virginia Tech this weekend.
TCU’s lone loss is to Iowa State (ranked 21st), while the Hurricanes are still undefeated. In this case, I think the resumes are too similar to ignore Miami’s undefeated record, especially after how they played this past weekend, in a game where they remained undefeated, I would’ve slipped Miami in at six. Georgia deserves to stay at number 1, although Alabama picked up a Top 25 victory on Saturday against LSU. Saban’s team will have another shot to snag a resume-helper this weekend as well on the road against Mississippi State. Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma all are ranked where they should be. Pretty much, everything stays the same at the top from last week’s rankings reveal.
Wisconsin (and the Big Ten) is in Big Trouble
This is a debate that I’ve had with many people over the last few days–what do we do with Wisconsin? The committee helped out Paul Chryst’s team a little by adding Northwestern to the Top 25 (25th) and pushing this weekend’s opponent, Iowa, up to 20th. Still, we have to look at the way things are right now and, currently, Wisconsin is in big, big trouble.
Wisconsin may finish with an undefeated record, but does that really mean they automatically get a playoff spot?
The Badgers came in at 8th, meaning that currently they’re ranked behind the SEC division leaders, the ACC division leaders, the Big 12 top two teams, and Notre Dame. While Iowa would be a good win, a victory at home over the 20th-ranked Hawkeyes wouldn’t sniff the resumes every team above them has. Wisconsin would then have to rely on beating either Michigan State or Ohio State (probably) in the Big Ten championship game, either of whom will most likely be a fringe Top 10 team when that game occurs. Now, let’s say Alabama goes 13-0, Oklahoma goes 12-1, Clemson goes 12-1, Notre Dame finishes 11-1, and Georgia loses the SEC Championship to drop to 12-1. How can Wisconsin seriously pass two of those teams to sneak into the playoff rankings? Kirk Herbstriet noted during the release show that there comes a time when records should be thrown out and the product on the field should be judged. Sure, Wisconsin would have an argument if the playoff committee decided the four “most-deserving” teams. But that’s not the committee’s job; their website says it is tasked to “The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable.” If all of those teams have a conference title, just like Wisconsin, are we really going to push the Badgers ahead just because they’re undefeated?
The Scenario is Almost Set for Two SEC Teams
First thing’s first, I’ll go ahead and shut something down–the ACC isn’t getting two teams in the playoff. If Miami wins out, Clemson will have two losses and they’ll be done. If Miami loses to Notre Dame and then wins out, Clemson will still have two losses. If Miami loses to Clemson in the ACC Championship game at all, the Hurricanes will close, but I doubt ranked high enough to avoid dropping from the Top 4 (and that’s if they beat Notre Dame).
Because of its head-to-head win over Notre Dame, the stage is set for Georgia get in without a conference championship.
The ACC can only get one in. The SEC, however, is anther story. Once again, Georgia stayed number one this week, ahead of number two Alabama. If both of those teams win out, I believe that Georgia will remain number one going into the SEC Championship Game; Alabama will also stay number two. Both teams would have too similar of resumes for the Crimson Tide to jump the Bulldogs. Currently, I project Alabama to beat Georgia in the SEC title game. If that occurs, here’s what would have to happen for Georgia to remain in the Top 4.
- Notre Dame needs to win out and finish 11-1. As stated above, the committee clearly values head-to-head above any other metric when ranking teams with similar records. Putting a one-loss Fighting Irish ahead of the one-loss Bulldogs would make the committee lose all credibility.
- Either Oklahoma/TCU or Clemson/Miami may need to lose a game. While I am of the opinion that Georgia would be fine without this happening, Kirby Smart’s team would breathe a lot easier if this scenario occurred. While I still think Georgia would be deserving of a spot, the committee would have a reason to rank the Bulldogs behind the Big 12 or ACC champion.
Now, if Georgia wins the SEC Championship against Alabama, we get into a bit of a quagmire. How would Alabama’s schedule hold up against the other contenders? They wouldn’t have a head-to-head to lean on, plus probably wouldn’t have as many Top 25 wins as Notre Dame, the ACC Champion, or the Big 12 Champion. At the point, the committee would have to sit and decide if they think Alabama is one of the four best teams based on their football knowledge. Is the eye test good enough for the 12-1 Tide? Surely, Nick Saban hopes that situation never arises.
This Weekend is Another Elimination Weekend
Week 11 will provide us with THREE Top 10 match-ups, including two elimination games. The losers of TCU at Oklahoma and Notre Dame at Miami are almost surely eliminated, which will clear up the fog just a bit. Georgia also travels to #10 Auburn on Saturday, so we’ll see how good Kirby Smart’s team really is. Can freshman quarterback Jake Fromm respond to a tough environment, especially if Auburn shuts down Georgia’s running game? That will be key. Lots of other Top 25 match-ups of interest litter the slate, most of which directly impact a CFP contender or two. It’ll be interesting to see how much the landscape of college football changes this weekend. And make no mistake, it will change; just when we think we’ve figured it out, the college football gods throw everything for a loop.