Even with the acquisition of Corey Kluber, the New York Yankees are still dealing with a few potential question marks when it comes to pitching. Despite rave reviews from scouts and fellow players, it is unknown how Kluber will fare when he finally does return to the mound. After Gerrit Cole and Kluber, the Yankees essentially have three open spots in their rotation. Luis Severino is expected to return mid-season, but like Kluber, his health will also be a question.
In a now-debunked rumor, the Yankees were reported to be deep in talks to acquire Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds. While the negotiations did not go nearly as deep as many suggested, there were negotiations, at least somewhat. This tells us that Brian Cashman and company may not be done when it comes to adding arms this offseason.
So with Castillo off the table, who could the Yankees target next? The best fit is arguably Kyle Hendricks.
Kyle Hendricks: an Underrated Ace
Since entering the league, Hendricks has debatably been the most underrated pitcher in all of baseball. By the numbers, he has unquestionably been an ace since his 2014 debut with the Cubs. Let’s take a deeper look.
Since entering the league, Hendricks boasts a career ERA of 3.12 (12th in all of baseball in that span) and an ERA+ of 133. In that time, he also ranks 12th in walks per 9 innings and 11th in fWAR. His underlying numbers are even better.
Hendricks has a career hard-hit % of just 28.9% (10th), and an average exit velocity of 86.5 mph (3rd). (Numbers courtesy of Fangraphs). He has been remarkably consistent as well, throwing more innings than all but eight pitchers since he debuted.
Perhaps more importantly, his regular-season success has translated to the postseason. Hendricks has a career ERA of 3.12 in the playoffs, exactly the same as his career ERA in the regular season. During the Cubs’ 2016 World Series run, Hendricks allowed just 4 earned runs in 25.1 innings throughout the postseason. This includes just one run in 9 innings across two starts in the World Series that year.
Sellers in the North Side
The Cubs have shown themselves to be sellers in recent months. They traded their other star pitcher, Yu Darvish, to the San Diego Padres, and have reportedly been shopping catcher Willson Contreras as well. They non-tendered Kyle Schwarber, and Chicago has even been linked to rumors suggesting they may trade star infielder Kris Bryant.
With all these rumors, it’s not completely unreasonable to think that the team would be open to moving Hendricks. However, the asking price would likely be significantly steeper than their return in the Darvish trade.
For starters, Hendricks is under contract through the 2024 season and is set to make $14 million per year (that total increases to $16 million in the final year, which is a team option as well). This is a remarkably cheap deal for a pitcher of Hendricks’ caliber, which only increases his trade value.
The Cost
So, what exactly would it take to get Hendricks from the Cubs? A lot.
Like, a lot.
When it comes to the trade market, Hendricks is much more valuable than Darvish, or Blake Snell (another starter who was traded this offseason). Sure, Snell has a Cy Young award, but he also has yet to reach anywhere near that level of dominance again. Snell also rarely works deep into games, not having thrown 6 full innings in his last 20 consecutive starts (including postseason).
Snell’s contract is comparable to Hendricks (he’s owed $39 million over the next 3 years), but Hendricks also comes with an extra year of control.
As a matter of fact, during the writing of this piece, Joel Sherman of the NY Post released an article suggesting that the Yankees trade for Hendricks. He named a potential package for the Rockies’ German Marquez, so let’s start with that.
For Marquez, Sherman suggests this deal:
- One of either Deivi Garcia or Clarke Schmidt
- Clint Frazier
- Miguel Andujar
- One of either Luis Gil or Luis Medina
For Hendricks, this would not be enough. In comparison, when the Yankees and Reds did briefly discuss a Luis Castillo trade, the Reds started with Gleyber Torres as their asking price.
However, the Yankees could likely pry Hendricks away from Chicago without giving up Torres, as long as they add enough otherwise.
Potential Trade Package
Cubs receive:
- Deivi Garcia
- Clarke Schmidt
- Clint Frazier
- Miguel Andujar
- Luis Gil
- Adam Ottavino
I know what you’re thinking. That is an absolutely massive return. However, that’s essentially what it would take to pry Hendricks away from Chicago. The Cubs don’t have to trade him, and likely won’t unless they are overwhelmed with an offer such as this one.
Garcia and Schmidt give them two prospects with starting rotation potential, and Gil gives them another prospect with a bullpen floor and a ceiling in the starting rotation. Frazier’s bat is unquestionably talented, and his defense was much improved last season.
Andujar didn’t have a fit with the Yankees last season but based on his rookie campaign, he can clearly hit the ball (.297/.328/.527 slash line in 2018). If the Cubs are serious about moving Kris Bryant, that also leaves an open spot at third base that Andujar could compete for.
Ottavino struggled last season, but his underlying numbers were still solid, and it remains to be seen how much weight will be put into the shortened 2020 campaign regardless. With the way the Cubs’ bullpen performed last season, Ottavino would likely be a welcome addition.
Deal or No Deal?
Even though the Cubs are selling, they are likely going to want to hold onto Hendricks as their staff ace. The only way to pry him away from the Ricketts’ clutches is to completely blow them away, with an offer that they can’t refuse.
Is this a deal that Brian Cashman and the Yankees would be willing to do? It seems extremely unlikely, because it would essentially gut the entire Yankees’ farm system. Especially considering the increased focus on that system in recent years, there’s almost a zero percent chance that the Bronx Bombers would move both Garcia and Schmidt in the same deal.
However, don’t expect Hendricks to be moved for much less.