Thanksgiving week is finally upon us, and with it, one of the biggest weeks of the season for college football coaches and their agents. When the 2017 regular season resolves Sunday, the football coaching carousel, which has already been active with firings at Florida, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, among other places, will spin into overdrive. Coaches will be fired or “mutually agree” to leave (which is another phrase for being fired). Rumors will swirl. Search firms will make contacts behind the scenes. And sometime in January, the final FBS coaching vacancy will be filled. Every athletic director believes they’ve hit a homerun with their hires, but the rate of turnover among head coaches suggests otherwise.
Who should a program seeking a brand new direction hire? I took a good look at nine high-profile jobs (the first three in this article) that have opened or could open very soon and determined the ideal hire for each program. I took into factors like coaching style, ties to the job and personality. Here’s a look at the ideal candidates for college programs most likely to be changing coaches:
Arkansas: Mike Norvell
When Arkansas hired Bret Bielema five years ago, it looked like a great decision. Bielema had enjoyed HUGE success at Wisconsin with a record of 68-24, four 10-win seasons and three Rose Bowl appearances. But his brand of power back football simply hasn’t translated well in his time with the Razorbacks. Bielema is 29-33 in five seasons, hasn’t won more than EIGHT games in a season, and has never finished higher than third in the SEC East. Last week, Arkansas’ AD Jeff Long, who hired Bielema, was fired, making the coach’s position tenuous.
Saturday’s loss to Mississippi State dropped the Hogs to 4-7 and eliminated them from bowl contention for the second time in five seasons. Bielema is likely to be dismissed at the end of the regular season, it is a no-brainer. While Gus Malzahn’s name has come up in connection with the job, it might be better for Arkansas to embrace a young, up-and-coming coach who likely won’t be as costly as Malzahn but also runs a fast-paced, wide-open offense. The answer sits just across the Natural State’s border in Memphis, Tennessee, and his name is Mike Norvell. Norvell was hired after Justin Fuente was hired by Virginia Tech and has picked up right where Fuente left off. After an 8-5 record in his debut season, the Tigers are 9-1 this fall after Saturday’s 66-45 win over SMU. They won the American Athletic Conference West Division and will face either UCF or South Florida in the AAC title game Dec. 2.
Memphis is riding a six-game win streak and has averaged 50.8 points in that span. The Tigers average 42 points per game on the season (No. 6 nationally) and also have a top-10 national passing offense. I know they are achieving this stat in the AAC, and it would be different coaching in the SEC, but still, it is a great accomplishment. Norvell’s system would be a great change of pace for Arkansas. He will be on Power Five radars, so it would be smart for Arkansas to move fast and lock him up.
Florida: Chip Kelly
Despite consecutive SEC East championships, the Jim McElwain era quickly imploded at Florida. The Gators actually started SEC play 3-0 following a season-opening loss to Michigan, but they then lost three consecutive games and struggled offensively. They tried shuffling inefficient quarterbacks in and out of the starting lineup, but it didn’t work. Following a 42-7 loss to Georgia and McElwain’s comments about death threats against his family (which he did not elaborate about to Florida administrators), he was canned. It’s a smart move for Florida, which failed to capitalize and build in the SEC East while rivals Georgia and Tennessee were rebuilding.
The best fit for Florida is a man who’s ready and available to take over immediately. Chip Kelly flamed out as an NFL head coach with the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers. But, he has a strong track record of offensive success at Oregon as the Ducks offensive coordinator and head coach. Under Kelly, the Ducks thrived with a spread offense that was flashy and fun to watch. Oregon went 46-7 in Kelly’s tenure, including a national runner-up finish in 2011.
The Gators thrived with Urban Meyer’s spread scheme but have failed to replicate that success under Will Muschamp and McElwain. Kelly knows how to develop quarterbacks, and while he served a show-cause penalty after Oregon was placed on NCAA probation in 2015, it has expired and Florida would simply need to clear his hiring with the SEC. It was also reported that Florida officials flew to speak with Kelly Sunday.
Kansas State: Brent Venables
Kansas State faces a crossroads with their program. Thanks to Saturday’s 45-40 win at Oklahoma State, the Wildcats are bowl-eligible for the ninth consecutive season. This encompasses legendary coach Bill Snyder’s entire second stint with the program. Snyder has won 208 games in 26 seasons in Manhattan and transformed one of the nation’s worst programs into a consistent winner.
