As the regular season winds to a close, and with conference tournament play waiting eagerly at the scorer’s table, the big picture is a jumbled mess. That shouldn’t come as a surprise. When has the field of 68 ever been clear-cut in February?
But when it comes to sniffing out the tried-and-true contenders for a trip to Houston in early April, looking a historical trends leads to puzzling discoveries. Is this Houston’s best chance for glory before moving to the Big 12 in July 2023? Can Kansas pull off the near-impossible feat of a successful title defense? Just how good is Creighton?
However, it’s impossible to watch Brad Underwood’s Fighting Illini and not imagine a world where his team could easily exit in the Round of 64 or find itself victors of a region headed to the Final Four.
Is The Third Time the Charm for the Illini?
After three incredibly fortunate regular seasons in Champaign produced two first-weekend losses, the least-productive Illini team since the 21–10 2020 season almost feels the best suited for the school’s deepest run in March since John Groce’s Sweet Sixteen loss in his first season as head coach.
Since the departure of Ayo Dosunmu following the 2021 season and Kofi Cockburn’s last year along with key role players like graduates Trent Frazier and Da’Monte Williams and transfer Andre Curbelo, Illinois keeps rolling with the punches. It’s a testament to the coaching staff’s ability to recruit and replace, but also to players like Coleman Hawkins and R.J. Melendez who have moved up the ladder from benchwarmers to ancillaries.
But Illinois is nothing without the contributions of its two prized transfers: Matthew Mayer from Baylor and Terrence Shannon Jr. from Texas Tech. Growing into integral leadership roles on the court throughout the season, the Illini have come a long way since Brad Underwood’s postgame tirade and fart noise following an abysmal 74–59 home loss to Penn State in December.
But leadership be damned, it means nothing without production, and Mayer and Shannon are producing when it matters most. Mayer, a 6’9″ wing with an eye for the three-ball, has averaged 13.25 points per game since the team’s 0–3 start in the Big Ten. His willingness to shoot and his scrappiness on defense provides indispensable maturity to a lineup of players who often find themselves in their heads.
Meanwhile, Terrence Shannon Jr. is Illinois’ best guard since Dosunmu left for the NBA two years ago. His 6’6″, 215 lbs. build paired with his unwavering determination to get a bucket without regard for his safety is a pro-level mindset in a 22-year-old’s body.
Anarchy? Nope. Just College Basketball.
Thursday night’s Quad 2 comeback victory over No. 21 Northwestern only reinforced the nightly confusion this Illinois team brings to the Big Ten. When playing sloppily, chucking up poor shots, and switching off scalding-hot scorers like Boo Buie, it’s very easy to build 18-point halftime deficits.
And when every player is firing on all cylinders with a sensational performance from a star in the making — like Terrence Shannon Jr’s 24-point second half — it’s apparent that the Illini can simply hang with just about anybody.
The challenge becomes putting together complete games without the five-minute scoring droughts that seemingly plague every Brad Underwood team at Illinois over the last six seasons.
“Dudes Who Can Go Get One.”
The team is certainly light years away from flawless. Dain Dainja would thrive at a mid-major but isn’t athletic or tall enough to compete for 25 minutes with superior 5s in the Big Ten. His defense is a massive liability for the Illini especially once tournament play begins, but Underwood seems aware, opting for smaller lineups in crucial situations more regularly as the season has progressed.
Meanwhile, R.J. Melendez has elite measurables for a guard — 6’7″, 205 lbs. — but started February unbelievably ice-cold before finding his rhythm against Minnesota on President’s Day.
If you mushed the positives in the games of both Jayden Epps and Sencire Harris, you’d probably have a 19-year-old lottery pick with a three-point stroke, elite ball-handling, and aggressive hands defensively. Unfortunately, science hasn’t caught up to my oddly specific basketball wishes.
Coleman Hawkins provides tremendous energy… and hilariously ill-advised shot selections. You can see the moment in almost every game where Brad Underwood has a devilish grin while probably imagining vigorously shaking Hawkins until the junior forward promises to stop relying on a 30-foot hurl despite averaging 28.8% from beyond the arc this season. But his physicality in the low-post when Illinois sports a smaller rotation is critical.
And maybe the return of a healthy Luke Goode provides an additional bump to the team’s three-point efficiency in the Big Ten Tournament and beyond.
Because this isn’t a poorly constructed team. It’s not an island of misfit toys hastily fashioned together after several departures from a year prior. But the Illini should certainly feel a chip on its shoulder over the next month-plus after uncharacteristically being a Big Ten punching bag at different points in the conference schedule.
Thursday’s Comeback Throws Fuel of Fire of Confusion.
“When things break down, you have to have dudes who can go get one,” Underwood said following Thursday night’s win. “We have multiple guys who can do that.”
That’s arguably the most important component in March. Can the ancillaries provide relief when one sharpshooter goes cold, or Mayer and Shannon can’t break from tremendous defensive pressure? Underwood believes so.
For all the faults plaguing Illini hoops in the 2023 season, the unpredictability on any given night makes Illinois one of March’s toughest outs. The idea of a deep run in the NCAA Tournament could also look ridiculously foolish after a swift exit in the Round of 64. It’s the House of ‘Paign for good reason.