Overview
Justin Herbert seems to be the consensus number three quarterback in the 2020 NFL Draft, but there has been steam on him both directions. Some have contemplated slotting Jordan Love or Jacob Eason ahead of him, while others have moved him in front of Tua Tagovailoa. Herbert was able to lead Oregon to great heights in his time and the former low-level prospect has upped his game to a very high level.
A prototype quarterback, measuring in at 6’6″ and 236 lbs, Herbert has NFL scouts salivating at his size and arm strength. There are some red flags on his tape, but overall, Herbert is an interesting prospect with more athleticism than meets the eye.
Combine Measurables
Height: 6’6″ |Weight: 236 |Arms: 32 7/8″ |Hands: 10″
40 Yard Dash: 4.68 Seconds (3rd)
Vertical: 35.5 inches (2nd)
Broad Jump : 123 inches (3rd)
3 Cone Drill : 7.06 Seconds (1st)
20 Yard Shuttle : 4.46 Seconds (4th)
By The Numbers
Across his four seasons at Oregon, Justin Herbert threw for 10,541 yards, 95 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions. Herbert ranked 21st in the country in ESPN’s QBR in 2019 and 32nd in EPA. He graded out at 82.4 at Pro Football Focus this season and was their number six quarterback. In my personal QB WAR metric, Herbert ranked 19th in the country with 1.36 WAR.
By the Tape
I watched six different games from Justin Herbert this season to get an idea of his pros and cons. The main thing that I took away from his tape: Oregon loves to run screens. It was almost nauseating to watch them run screen after screen with the talent they had at QB. This scheme didn’t provide Herbert a ton of opportunity to show his true talent. When Herbert did get the chance to sling it, he was able to show both the good and bad.
Good : Arm Strength
To start with the good, Herbert possesses a strong arm and the ability to put the ball in tight places. One of the main things I like to see in quarterback prospects is their ability to make a throw to the the outside sideline with enough arm strength for the ball to get there and for it to not get picked off. With this solid intermediate throw against Washington, Herbert shows that he does have some ability to do this.
Later in that game he was able to fit the ball in a tight window to score the TD.
Sometimes the throws that impress don’t show up as much on the stat sheet. Against Cal, Herbert made a throw from about 37 yards out that wasn’t quite caught, but I was still impressed with his ability to put the ball in a spot where only his guy could make a play.
Good: Athleticism
Justin Herbert does not get enough credit for his athleticism. While he’s not a world-class athlete, he does have the ability to scramble and make plays on the run. Against Utah in the Pac 12 Championship Game, he put this on display by making a long throw on the run.
He also flashed his running ability against Cal and against Wisconsin when he ran for three TD’s in the Rose Bowl, including this one to lock up the game for the Ducks.
Bad: Accuracy
The bad on Herbert starts to blend in here. Next is a play against Washington where he was able to escape the pocket to avoid danger, but showed his biggest weakness: inaccuracy.
Here he was able to get away, but could not finish the play by hitting his spot. These problems pop up multiple times during each games. Occasionally Herbert will underthrow receivers and spike the ball into the grass when they are wide open, especially when making throws off of his back foot.
Final Take
Overall, I think Herbert is a really good college prospect that sometimes has lapses in accuracy. His career outcome is very dependent on the situation in which he finds himself in. If Herbert winds up in a forward thinking organization that can put him in a place to succeed, he could develop into a top 10-15 quarterback in the league. On the flip side, if he is forced into a bad situation where he is not able to properly develop, you could see his inaccuracy issues manifest, causing him to resemble a bust. In the end, I think Herbert is one of the top 25 players in this draft and based on his positional value, he is worth spending a top ten pick on.
Justin Herbert Pick Projection
This remains to be seen. Joe Burrow is going to be the first QB off of the board. However, because of injury concerns with Tua Tagovailoa and Herbert’s strong showing at the combine, the Miami Dolphins are supposedly more interested in Herbert at the moment. I’ll ignore those rumors for now. My prediction is Herbert goes to the Los Angeles Chargers with the 6th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft.
You can view the rest of our NFL Draft breakdowns here.