For those unfamiliar with the statistical site kenpom.com, it is essentially a mecca for a fan of statistical analysis and college basketball. Started by Ken Pomeroy, the website’s archives date back to 2002, and use advanced statistics to rank teams in various categories. The website allows readers to go beyond the typical stats found on other sites, and has been used by a growing community of bettors. One of the more interesting stats calculated by the website is luck. According to the website’s ratings glossary, the luck statistic is “A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).”
Luck plays a role in the success (or lack thereof) for most teams. With that being said, here are the five unluckiest teams in the 2017-2018 season.
5. Hampton Pirates, 7-13 (2-3 MEAC), Luck rating: -.143
Hampton University has enjoyed success on the basketball court recently, making the NCAA Tournament six times since 2000, even defeating second-seed Iowa State in a thrilling 58-57 First Round victory in 2001. Hampton last appeared in the NCAA Tournament in 2016 after winning a MEAC championship. However, the Pirates have struggled to repeat their recent success. An abysmal 1-9 road record will hamper even the best of teams. But of the team’s 13 losses, seven have been by less than double-digits. Four of those seven single-digit losses were by less than five points. Usually, close games separate the good teams from the bad teams. In this case, a 1-7 record in games decided by less than ten points may cost Hampton a chance to find themselves back in the NCAA Tournament.
4. Lafayette Leopards, 5-16 (3-7 Patriot League), Luck rating: -.144
The good news for Leopard fans: Lafayette has a chance to best their nine wins from 2016-2017. The bad news: the team is just 1-10 in games decided by less than ten points. In 2017-2018, Lafayette has been victimized by turnovers, turning the ball over at an alarming 17.2% rate (meaning 17.2% of offensive possessions result in a turnover). Combined with the third-worst steals per game (3.6 steals/game) in Division 1, Lafayette has suffered through separate seven and four game losing streaks, and currently is in the midst of a two game skid.
3. Troy Trojans, 9-13 (3-6 Sun Belt), Luck rating: -.144
Believe it or not, Troy’s fate may have been sealed before it even played a game that counted. An 88-87 loss in an exhibition game to Division 2 Georgia Southwestern State set the tone for the Trojan’s regular season. Still, the season seemed to be heading in the right direction, as Troy battled then eighth ranked Kentucky to a 70-62 defeat in Lexington. Troy has struggled to a 7-9 record since that game. Currently in tenth place out of twelve teams in the Sun Belt, Troy has succumbed to close games, managing a 3-9 record in games decided by less than ten points.
2. Columbia Lions, 4-13 (1-3 Ivy League), Luck rating: -.180
Columbia, known more for its stellar academics rather than successful sports teams, looks to be heading toward a second straight losing season after winning 25 games in 2015-2016. After a promising opening game against now top-ranked Villanova, Columbia’s season has lost whatever luster it previously held. At first glance, no team statistic stands out in terms of disparity when compared to those of Columbia’s opponents. However, upon further examination, an 0-7 record in games decided by less than ten points accurately depicts the struggles of Columbia basketball.
1. Mercer Bears, 10-12 (3-6 Southern), Luck rating: -.181
If it weren’t for bad luck, Mercer wouldn’t have any luck at all. In games decided by less than ten points, Mercer is just 2-9. According to College Sports Madness’ preseason rankings, Mercer was projected to finish 109th in the nation and appear in a postseason tournament. What looked like a promising team on paper (ten of the eleven top scorers from last season are still on the roster) has quickly turned into a middling team fighting for a postseason berth. Mercer has actually outscored opponents by an average of 73.3 to 70.3 points per game, but a high turnover rate of 17.0%, combined with poor play in close games has done this team in. Look for this experienced team to rebound as the season begins to wind down.