I’m not sure about you all, but I think this college basketball season is going by too fast. Part of that may be that the upsets started early and happened often and all the changes in the polls have made everything a blur. For the first time in a long time, I can’t even give you a solid top 5 championship contenders without hesitating and thinking about a flaw or bad loss by that team. Virginia? Just lost to unranked Virginia Tech. Villanova? Lost to St. Johns (quality loss now?!). Anyway, this seems like a year where most teams that makes the tournament really could win it all.
But who is going to make it? There are plenty of teams who are locks, but plenty that are on the bubble and will be awaiting their fate come time for the Selection Show. Let’s take a look at the resumes of a few of these bubble teams and take some stock on where they might land:
Criteria:
Things I will be taking into consideration: RPI, SOS, KenPom, Q1/Q2 wins, average seeding in bracketology. All of these are things the committee takes into account, while the average seeding will show what the consensus on the team is.
The Teams:
Boise State (20-5, 10-3 Mountain West)
RPI: 37
KenPom: 53
SOS: 114
Q1/Q2: 5-5
Avg. Seed: 11.43 in 30/106 brackets
Summary: Despite some good rankings that are within the tournament field and a very clean record, Boise State is not getting much love in the composite rankings, only being seeded in 30 out of 106 brackets. A 5-5 record in Q1/Q2 games is also pretty good for a bubble team.
Outlook: 5 games left on the schedule with 2 sub-200 RPI teams will not help the Broncos strength of schedule, but a big game against a highly ranked Nevada would easily bump Boise off the bubble and into the field of 68 (assuming they don’t trip up in the games they are favored in). My guess is that we see the Broncos in the field come Selection Sunday.
St. Bonaventure (18-6, 8-4 A10)
RPI: 46
KenPom: 68
SOS: 108
Q1/Q2: 6-4
Avg. Seed: 11.25 in 16/106 brackets
Summary: St. Bonaventure is an interesting case. They have a resume that tells me they should be a tournament team, but have a couple curious losses and a less than eye-popping record for an at-large from the A-10. Their record in Q1/Q2 games is very strong for a bubble team and might be their saving grace come selection time. But they are still only seeded in 16 out of 106 brackets. That’s not good.
Outlook: A huge matchup against Rhode Island could help propel the Bonnies into the tournament with a victory. A game at VCU could also help propel them; even though the Rams are not as strong as they have been in recent years, it is still tough to knock them off at home. St. Bonaventure is not going to be a complete lock unless they win their conference tournament (though will be very close if they knock off Rhode Island), and if they slip up once they won’t be happy when the bracket is released.
Syracuse (17-8, 6-6 ACC)
RPI: 40
KenPom: 46
SOS: 37
Q1/Q2: 6-7
Avg. Seed: 11 in 72/102
Summary: Syracuse is sitting pretty on the bubble with good numbers across the board. The seven losses in Q1/Q2 games is a little much, but strengthens their SOS, so it almost offsets. Having 7 of your 8 losses be in the top half of the quadrant system is a good position to be in.
Outlook: Reason I think Syracuse is sitting pretty: the rest of their games are against teams in the top 80 of RPI, with 3 of those against the top 10. They have plenty of opportunities to pick up a signature win and strengthen their resume. Considering their top win right now is against Buffalo, it would be beneficial if they pick up one of those resume-defining wins to make sure they don’t have to worry too much at the bracket release. I personally think they get in.
Mississippi State (18-7, 6-6 SEC)
RPI: 54
KenPom: 58
SOS: 113
Q1/Q2: 4-7
Avg. Seed: 11.29 in 7/106 brackets
Summary: Mississippi State’s RPI and KenPom rankings are good and would make me lean towards getting into the tournament. The only problem is their strength of schedule is low for a P5(P6?)((P7??)) team. They also have fared horribly in Q1 games, going 1-6 in those games but 3-1 in Q2 games. Not many people have confidence in the Bulldogs making the tournament as they were only seeded in 7 out of 106 brackets. Ouch.
Outlook: The good news is that MSU has four games coming up against top 100 competition and can boost that Q1/Q2 record a little bit. As long as they can avoid a bad loss (which they have all season) and early conference tournament exit they will have a chance, but unless they pull off an upset or two I do not see them making it in the field.
Western Kentucky (18-7, 10-2 C-USA)
RPI: 60
KenPom: 66
SOS: 72
Q1/Q2: 4-2
Avg. Seed: 11.33 in 3/106 brackets
Summary: For the rankings, Western Kentucky is the opposite of Mississippi State. The computers have them on the fringe of the tournament field, but their SOS and record in Q1/Q2 games is better than one would expect. Another problem is that they are in a tight battle for the top of the C-USA and it will be a tough sell to include them in the field if they have fringe rankings and don’t get the automatic qualifier.
Outlook: A big game at Middle Tennessee would give a big boost to their resume, but a handful of games against sub-150 teams could mean a slip up would knock them out of any consideration. I personally would not bank on seeing WKU in the tournament unless they win the C-USA tournament, which will be tough with competition from MTSU and a surprising Old Dominion team.
Look out for more updates to the Bubble Watch as we get closer to the best holiday of the year, Selection Sunday!