The time has come yet again to fill out brackets and personalize them like a beautiful painting with your own upsets, underdogs, and Cinderellas… Only to then regret them in hindsight after watching them get blown out by future NBA players, millionaire coaches, and historic programs. Hey, being wrong is half the fun, but these are this years’ most likely bracket busting teams from what I consider the bottom seeds of the tournament (12-16). You’ll notice I don’t have any UMBC-inspired 16 seeds on this list for obvious reasons. Don’t try to be a hero, the 16v1 upset is not happening again for a very long time. With that being said; the 4 teams that are the surest bet to make you look like a genius when you pick them to win in the first round:
12. Winthrop (23-1, Big South Champions) VS 5. Villanova
Every season there always seems to be a 12th seeded Cinderella and this year I LOVE Winthrop against a banged-up Villanova team. The Eagles, led by 6’7” PG and redshirt senior, Chandler Vaudrin, have done nothing but win this season. Bolstering the 2nd best win percentage in division I basketball, the Eagles only loss on the season came against UNC Asheville 55-57 in late July. This loss was solely due to a poor shooting night in which they went 3/20 from the three-point-line. Their resume will make people question whether or not to bet on them with their best win being against UNC Greensboro, but none-the-less, Winthrop is a mature team that starts three seniors and a junior and play true team basketball. They tire teams out as they have 11 players who appeared in 22+ games for them and played 11+ minutes per game. I expect their rotation to be cut down slightly, but having so many bodies and different looks to throw at a Villanova team missing their floor general, Collin Gillespie, could be very beneficial. Winthrop is Sweet Sixteen material in my eyes.
13. Liberty (22-5, A-Sun Champions) VS 4. Oklahoma State
Entering March Madness on a 12-game win streak is always good. Being a balanced, well-coached, and efficient team along with that is even better. While I think Oklahoma State is the toughest 4 seed they could have drawn, Liberty has a chance to end Cade Cunningham’s March Madness run very early. The Flames have the 3rd best scoring defense in the nation along with the 4th best assist-to-turnover ratio in the nation. They are also an elite 3-point shooting team as they shot the 8th most threes per game in the nation this season and also have the 5th best 3-point percentage in the nation at 39.1% as a team. Not only this, but Liberty has an electric scorer in 5’9” guard Darius McGhee, averaging 15.6 PPG on 41.3% shooting from three. He can catch fire at any moment and make magic happen at the end of the shot-clock. McGhee has six games this season with 6+ made threes and is a game changer if he gets hot at the right time. Their resume has decent wins over South Carolina and Mississippi State and a competitive loss at Missouri, but it is their play style and consistency that makes them scary to give Oklahoma State a run for their money.
13. Ohio (16-7, Mid-American Champions) VS 4. Virginia
The Ohio Bobcats are a team that has all the momentum in the world right now coming off of back-to-back-to-back upsets in their conference tournament against #4 seed Kent State, #1 seed Toledo, and #2 seed Buffalo. Meanwhile Virginia, after having a terrible end of February and finally getting back on track, are now dealing with COVID concerns and likely won’t have a full practice week as a team. The Bobcats have both interior and exterior scoring threats across their starting lineup, most notably Jason Preston (PG), averaging 16.6 PPG on 53% shooting and 40.8% from three and Dwight Wilson III (F) averaging 14.9 PPG on a remarkable 66.5% from the field. They have complimentary scorers all around and all five starters average double-digit points. Nothing proves their ability to hang with elite teams more than early on this season when they nearly upset now #1 seeded Illinois on their homecourt in a 75-77 loss. In that game Preston, Wilson III, and fellow big man Ben Vander Plas combined for 63 of their 75 points and were only 7.4 seconds away from coming away with the victory. While they really only go 7-deep for their rotation, if they avoid foul trouble, they can go toe-to-toe with a Virginia team who is having a down year.
15. Cleveland State (19-7, Horizon Champions) VS 2. Houston
If you’re looking for a team to make it rain from downtown to upset a contender, look away now. The Cleveland State Vikings only shoot 31.9% from three. So why do they have a chance to upset Houston? Simply put, they are not afraid to make a game slow, ugly, and a bit painful to watch. Houston, outside of Quentin Grimes, do not have great perimeter shooters and scorers and have only two QUAD1 wins this season, which is less than every other team that is a top four seed. They have not been tested as much as these other contenders and are definitely the least proven 2 seed this year. Cleveland State has a gritty defense that put up the best 3-point shooting defense, most turnovers forced, 2nd fewest points allowed, 2nd most steals, and 2nd best overall defensive field goal percentage in the Horizon league. They start a four-guard lineup led by 6’5” Torrey Patton, that contains a great deal of length and physicality. Their resume includes a QUAD1 win as well as a very impressive 61-67 loss at Ohio State, in which they were within 2-3 possessions the entire game of a current #2 seed. I could very easily see them give Houston trouble as well.
