The Big East is currently in possession of the reigning National Champion. Also, it has the second most teams seeded in the tournament, behind only the ACC. Admittedly, Vegas isn’t really that hot on the Big East. Even though Nova has the second best odds at a title, no one else is favored to win any games, except Butler. Analysts agree almost across the board that the Big East probably will not succeed. Still, the league is sending 70% of its teams to the dance, including two on or above the four line. Here is a breakdown of all seven teams in the tournament for the Big East.
Providence, 11 seed, East Region- Providence flew massively under the radar all season long. They lost studs Ben Bentil and Kris Dunn to the NBA, so no one thought much of them coming into the season. Still, they finished the year 20-12, including wins over Butler and Creighton. They had four players that averaged at least ten points per game. Coach Ed Cooley is consistently great at taking the talent he has and molding a team philosophy around that. This year that meant a balanced offensive attack and a steady defense. They run into a USC team in the First Four in Dayton that had a very similar season. Not many bad losses, but not many good wins, either. I expect Providence to win this game, but it really doesn’t matter since neither of these teams will come close to SMU in the Round of 64.
Xavier, 11 seed, West Region – The Musketeers spent much of their season squarely on the bubble following the injury to Edmond Sumner. Thanks to a win over Butler in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament, they were one of the teams that received a bye into the round of 64. Also, the early-year suspension to senior Myles Davis did not help their cause. Still, this team has great scorers in Trevon Bluiett and J.P. Macura, and depth in the front court. They rebound well on both ends of the floor and shoot over 45% as a team. With Sumner, this is a team that is top-15 in the country and a threat for a Final Four. Without him, they struggle because they do not have a true point guard or a third scoring threat. They are playing a Maryland team in the first round that has both a steady point guard in Melo Trimble, and many, many players that can score effectively. Expect Maryland to handily take care of the Musketeers.
Marquette, 10 seed, East Region – Putting Marquette in the same bracket as Villanova was one of those things the Committee does that makes everyone chuckle a little. On the off-chance that Marquette makes it to the Elite 8, they would be taking on a Wildcat team that they beat once in the regular season. Ultimately, this doesn’t matter that much. The Golden Eagles are a good basketball team, don’t get me wrong. They have five players scoring at least ten points per game, and two more with at least 8.7. They have steady post play from Luke Fischer and good three-point shooting. But, they got a really tough draw with their half of the region. Their first round matchup is against a dynamic South Carolina team that had a solid 19-5 season. They are led by Sindarius Thornwell, who has a couple absolutely absurd box scores (see: February 7 loss to Alabama). Marquette is more than capable of winning that game, but the next contest will be against Duke. No one can beat Duke right now. Golden State would have a tough time against the Blue Devils right now, that’s how hot they are. Send them oversees and they win the Euroleague. Here in March Madness, who knows, but it doesn’t seem like anyone can beat them and I highly doubt Marquette will be the team to do it.
Seton Hall, 9 seed, South Region – See that big slice of man flexing in that picture? That is Angel Delgado. If it is a name you do not know yet, add it to your college hoops vocabulary. He is a ball magnet on the glass. I am a huge fan of big-man post play, and the way this junior center plays is so entertaining. He absolutely feasts on the glass. He averaged over 13 boards this season to lead the Big East, and was tied for the most double-doubles in the country with Naismith Award Finalist Caleb Swanigan. Throw in 15.3 points per game and it’s safe to say this kid is a beast. Surrounding him are three other guys that score at least ten per game including crafty guard Desi Rodriguez and bullish guard Khadeen Carrington. This team can play ball. If you don’t believe me, look at the semifinal they played against Villanova in the Big East Tournament and nearly won. In the first round, they play an ok Arkansas team from a less-than-ok SEC. Expect Seton Hall to wipe the floor with them. Unfortunately, their second round game is against none other than the North Carolina Tar Heels. Even though they can match up with the size of UNC, Seton Hall would be severely overmatched in this game. It would not be a blowout, but there would never be a point in the game where the Pirates are within eight points, either. This is a nine seed that is capable of the 9-1 upset, but not against UNC.
Creighton, 6 seed, Midwest Region – This team was on fire. They were absolutely soaring, widely considered a top-ten team in the country. Then, their stud point guard, Mo Watson, went down with a season-ending knee injury and got accused of sexual assault. With him off the team, they struggled to find floor-general leadership and a replacement for his 8+ assists per game. They nose-dived out of the top 25 thanks to 9 conference losses. Only one of those losses were to a team that didn’t make the tournament, though. Also, this team still has four guys scoring at least nine per game, led by Marcus Foster’s 18 per game. Still, no one really has any hope for them. Rhode Island over Creighton is one of the most popular upset picks in the opening weekend of the tournament. That game isn’t nearly as clear-cut as everyone seems to think, though. Creighton plays great perimeter defense, which can neutralize the guard play Rhode Island has in E.C. Matthews. Also, the Jays have good front-court depth and are capable of very solid rebounding. This game is more of a toss-up than people are giving it credit for. Ultimately, I think Creighton will prevail and face a battered Oregon team in the Round of 32. With the loss of Chris Boucher, the Oregon bandwagon has been almost completely abandoned, and for good reason. Without him, they lose the ability for their center to spread the floor and a decent amount of rim protection. Also, it means Dillon Brooks has to play more time at the four, which is not good against a team like Creighton that has capable interior scoring. Call me crazy, but I have the Jays in the Sweet Sixteen.
Butler, 4 seed, South Region – I want to be very, very clear on this one. Butler is a really good team. It seems that every year, they start off of everyone’s radar only to pick up huge wins in non-conference play and skyrocket into the top 15. This year was no different. They beat top-10 ranked Arizona and Indiana in preseason play. But, then they do this thing where they decide to absolutely blow. This year they did that against Indiana State (without Larry Bird, so no excuse) and St. John’s (with Chris Mullins, but only as the coach, so still no excuse). Still, they turned it around again by gaining the season sweep over #1 Villanova. A team like this is terrifying in March because it is entirely plausible for them to both beat anyone, and also lose to anyone. I don’t think it’s a boiling-hot take to say their ceiling is the Final Four. They can play ball. They do everything the right way and are led by a dynamic scorer in Kelan Martin and senior presence Andrew Chrabascz (Shra-bits). Much like Seton Hall, though, this team is a victim to their draw. In the round of 64, they play a Winthrop team with energizer bunny Keon Johnson, who averages 22 points per game. If that game is high-scoring, Butler wins, but in a defensive battle, it could go either way. If they escape, they would then have to face either Minnesota or Middle Tennessee. This would be their break round. Regardless of matchup in that round, they would come out with an easy victory. But, next would be North Carolina. This would not be a good game. Butler’s strength is in the front court, but they do not match up with the long-athletic forwards that the Tar Heels have. I firmly believe they would get run out of the gym. I guess they have to hope for Seton Hall to pull of the impossible. Still, consider the Bulldogs a lock for the Sweet Sixteen.
Villanova, 1 seed, East Region – Finally, the reigning national champs. The overall-number-one-seed Villanova Wildcats. Funny enough, they have less pressure on them as reigning champs than they did last year as “that team that can’t get past the first weekend.” At first glance, Nova’s bracket is a complete shit show. They have at least three teams you can look at and say, “Oh no.” But, the sky is the limit for this team. In the 8/9 game, they will wipe the floor with whoever they draw. Wisconsin is simply not a good matchup and Virginia Tech can’t play with a team this good. In the next round, they either get Virginia, who they have beaten, or Florida, who beat Kentucky once and was considered a good team from there on out. If you actually look at their schedule, the Gators are unimpressive. So Nova is a lock for at least the Elite 8, where they will probably meet Duke. This is one of those games that college hoops fans dream of. Duke and Nova in Madison Square Garden. Yes, that Madison Square Garden. The mecca of basketball that has seen Nova win 3 of the last 4 Big East Tournament Championships. The same MSG that is considered Duke’s home court above the Mason-Dixon Line. Finally, the Committee did something right in not only making this a possibility, but a probability. If there is any team that can stop Duke before the Final Four, it is Nova, so that makes this game even more intriguing. Two of the hottest teams in basketball for a chance to dance in Phoenix. I don’t even want to give a prediction because I want to leave you with the idea of that game in your brain. Hopefully all of our dreams will come true and we will get to see that.
I know I said that the Big East was still really good, but come March, maybe they are not in the conversation. If you were paying attention, I had four of the seven teams with their ceiling at the Sweet Sixteen. That was even a bit of a stretch since Creighton is a bold upset pick and Seton Hall is a longer shot than a Dustin Johnson drive on a par five. So in reality, two Big East teams will be in the Sweet 16. When you put that in percentages, though, it isn’t really that bad (12.5%). If Nova can repeat as Final Four contestants, that will keep the conference squarely in the middle of “second-best conference” conversation. If they can repeat as champs, it might push the conference to the next level. But, March is wild and nothing is a lock. Maybe Xavier will win a couple games, or the fighting Ed Cooleys will be that one play-in team that busts everyone bracket.