Record: 9-6

Eagles vs Buccaneers

Jalen Hurts Anytime TD -105

The last time I bet Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown, the bet cashed. So, I’m going back to that well. He has two rushing touchdowns on the season, and both came last week against the Vikings. Tampa Bay allowed a rushing touchdown to Justin Fields last week. Everything is pointing to Hurts finding pay dirt this evening and I’m hoping on the wagon.

Cade Otton Alternate Receiving Yards Over 50 +330

On the season, Cade Otton only has 8 receptions and 60 yards, but the way the Eagles matchup with tight ends isn’t great. Their linebackers struggle in coverage and the last two tight ends they’ve played, Hunter Henry and T.J. Hockenson, went for over 55 yards each. With how good the Eagles secondary plays, they’ll shut down the outside and the deep ball, but will struggle to contain Otton as a check down. Otton is going to be targeted early and often tonight.

Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Interceptions -120

Death, taxes, and Baker Mayfield throwing an interception. That’s usually the case, but Mayfield’s played fairly clean this year having not thrown an interception. What that means is that he’s due. The Eagles secondary is one of the league’s best and Tampa Bay, outside of Mike Evans on the outside, don’t have great receiving threats. I think Mayfield will throw a pick to one of Philadelphias corners this evening trying to push the ball downfield.

Jalen Hurts Longest Completion Over 38.5 Yards -110

Against Minnesota in Week Two, Hurts had a long of 63 yards and I don’t see how he doesn’t get over 38.5 at least once this evening. Tampa Bay doesn’t have a great secondary and with players like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, the Eagles will look to push the ball downfield. This just feels right. My guts telling me it’s going to happen.

Rams vs Bengals

Puka Nacua Over 5.5 Receptions -145

One of the most surprising players this season has been Rams wideout Puka Nacua. He has 25 receptions over two games and this 5.5 number feels low. I know the Bengals will look to shut him down, but when a player is producing like Nacua is, he’s not going to have a major drop off. The Bengals have held every pass catcher they’ve seen this year under 5.5 receptions, but they haven’t played an efficient player like Nacua yet, or an offense that schemes around one player the way the Rams do.

Sam Hubbard Over 0.25 Sacks +195

It’s been a slow start to the year so far for Sam Hubbard, but tonight’s the night he’ll get his first sack of the season. Rams left tackle Joe Noteboom has a PFF grade of 53.7% this year and Rob Havenstein has a grade of 56.5%. Los Angeles loves to throw the ball, so there will be ample opportunities for Hubbard to get after Matt Stafford.

Matthew Stafford Over 34.5 Pass Attempts -125

Speaking of the Rams being fans of throwing the ball, let’s take the over on Stafford’s pass attempts. He had exactly 34 last week vs San Francisco and that was a close game. I think this game will be one that’ll go the distance into the fourth and McVay will rely on Stafford to make plays with his arm. That along with Cincinnati having a weaker secondary is my reasoning for taking the over.

Kyren Williams Over 57.5 Rushing Yards -110

While I’ve droned on and on and on about the Rams throwing the ball, Kyren Williams is poised for a game where he breaks the 57.5 rushing yard threshold. They just shipped Cam Akers to Minnesota, which means Williams will have more opportunities in the run game than the past two weeks. Even when he was splitting carries, he still rushed for 52 in back-to-back games. He’s been close to 57.5 when sharing the rock. Now, he’s the lone ranger in the Rams backfield.