Record: 20-18
DeMarcus Lawrence Over 0.25 Sacks +140
After a short picks hiatus, I’m back on the better side of .500 and am here to deliver five great picks starting with DeMarcus Lawrence over 0.25 sacks. Lawrence has 2 sacks this season and has faced some of the leagues top pass protectors in Trent Williams, Andrew Thomas, and Mekhi Becton. He’s a physical pass rusher and has a favorable matchup tonight vs Trey Pipkins III. Pipkins has allowed 2 sacks this season and has a PFF grade of 59.7%. Herbert has been sacked 9 times in four games this year, which makes me more confident in Lawrence getting to him.
Justin Herbert Over 290.5 Passing and Rushing Yards -115
In two of the four games Herbert has played in this season, he’s gone for over 290.5 passing and rushing yards. While Dallas hasn’t allowed a quarterback to go for over 290.5 passing and rushing yards this season, they haven’t played a quarterback to the caliber of Justin Herbert. They’ve squared off vs Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Mac Jones, Josh Dobbs, and Brock Purdy. Herbert, along with Ekeler, Allen, and Johnston should hit the 290.5 mark tonight.
Justin Herbert Longest Completion Over 37.5 Yards -115
We aren’t just taking one Justin Herbert prop tonight. We’re taking two. In two games this year, Herbert’s longest completion has been over 37.5 yards. And in the two games he hasn’t hit the mark, he’s been close having his longest completion being 35 and 36 yards. For Dallas, while they haven’t played any great quarterbacks, four of the five they have played have a longest completion over 37.5 yards. Tonight, it feels inevitable that Herbert hits a few deep balls and takes the top off the Dallas secondary.
Jake Ferguson Over 36.5 Receiving Yards -115
With the loss of Dalton Schultz, Dallas has needed a tight end to step up and Ferguson has. He has two games over 36.5 receiving yards and averages 5.6 targets per game this year. Only two tight ends this season have gone for over 36.5 yards against Los Angeles this season, but with how often Ferguson is targeted, I think he’ll easily hit this mark tonight. I don’t think LA matches up well with Ferguson as their linebackers aren’t great in coverage. Hammer the over on Ferguson.
Austin Ekeler Over 85.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards -115
One of the leagues most dynamic players is Austin Ekeler. He’s only played in one game this season, but in that game he went off. He rushed for 117 yards and caught 4 passes for 47 yards for a total of 164 yards. Dallas has allowed one running back to go over 85.5 rushing and receiving yards, but Ekeler is on another level in the pass and run game. Ekeler won’t have Parsons on him and will thrive in a matchup vs Markquese Bell.