One year ago, I sat here and told you “Why Alabama was Overrated” and picked Clemson to win the national championship. The first reason was the quarterback difference; Jalen Hurts’ average game against top 50 teams was 145 passing yards, one TD and one INT, while Watson’s average game against similar opponents was 297 yards with three touchdowns and a pick. Staying true to tune, Hurts passed for 131 yards and a score while Watson went above and beyond with 420 passing yards and three touchdowns. Also, noting the difference in receiving corps, I noted how big of a difference Mike Williams would be down the stretch. Finally, my last concern was Alabama’s inability to convert on third down against good defenses and they backed up this claim by going 2 for 15 in such situations.
Now I don’t bring all of this back up to toot my own horn (well maybe a little), but rather to show how I’ve flipped the script this year and I believe that the Alabama Crimson Tide will win the national championship.
The first reason for this has been pointed out by every pundit in America so far, but I’ll bring it up anyways. Pro-style offenses don’t fare well against the Tide. Alabama has such great athletes inside the box, both on the line and at linebacker, that it is tough to get by them without spreading the defense out. If you let Bama stack the box on you, you’re going to lose nine times out of ten. The most recent victory by a pro-style offense against Alabama that I can remember would be their 2011 overtime loss to LSU. In one of the lowest scoring football games I can remember, both offenses struggled in tune to a 9-6 final. This was more of a product of the great LSU defense than it was a pro-style attack beating Alabama straight up.
As solid as freshman Jake Fromm has been this year, Johnny Manziel isn’t walking out the tunnel. I think that becuase of the way Georgia is built, Alabama will be able to force Fromm to convert from 3rd and 7 rather than 3rd and 3 and he will struggle to do so. I still think the Georgia stable of RBs will get the bulk of the workload and provide some spark for the Bulldogs, but I expect them to be held well under their season averages. Auburn, South Carolina, and Mississippi State are the only top 40 rush defenses (YPG) that Georgia faced all season and in four those games they averaged just 4.34 yards per attempt, well below the 6 yards per attempt they averaged on the season.
The X-factor that may fall in Georgia’s favor here is the health of the Alabama defense. Linebackers Shaun Dion Hamiltion, Dylan Moses, and Anfernee Jennings are all banged up with Moses the only one having a shot to play. Pile this on top of the other Bama linebacker troubles this season and they may be in trouble. As stated before, Alabama’s strength on defense is on the front seven and without that, there may be more open running lanes for Georgia. While they will be able to replace everyone with more blue chip recruits, the lack of experience may be an issue. Adding on to the injury problems, starting guard Lester Cotton has also been ruled out for the game. Georgia has the ability to force these issues.
Despite the great talent in Georgia’s backfield and on defense, I think Bama is just a different machine. They are more experienced, have been here before, and they’re deeper. It also seems like Nick Saban has this team more motivated than ever. I like Bama to shut down the Georgia attack, and unless Fromm comes up big on late downs, the Crimson Tide should roll. There will be a lot of punts in this game, though, as Alabama may struggle to move the ball as well. I’m going to pick Alabama to win by a final score of 24-13.