NBA Finals Prediction: What to Look For

Tonight starts the beginning of the end… The NBA Finals are here. What a wild road it has been to get here! The Lakers are finally back in the finals for the first time in about 10 years. Also, the Heat are back for the first time since LeBron took them in 2012 and 2013. There are a lot of questions that need answers, and that’s what I’m going to do. This series will not be easy for L.A., but I think they come out of this series victorious.

The Underdogs

The Miami Heat have truly had a season for the record books this year. Although they’re the first 5 seed to make the finals ever, they have played like a true 1 seed. Beating the 1 seed in 5 games and the 3 seed in 6 is just the base of what they have done. It isn’t that they are winning games, rather how they are winning games. They have really embodied the energy of a team who looks ready to win the finals, but how?

How to “Beat L.A.”

Miami has implemented a zone defense that is proving to be great this season. It was this zone that proved to be the difference in the Celtics series, as it forced a lot of isolation and contested 3’s. I think that floating between the zone and man will work if you can keep LA off balance. Since LA shoots worse than Miami from 3, if those 3s they take can be more contested, games will be closer.

The Glue Needs to Hold

On top of this, the production as a team needs to continue. Guys like Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic, and Jae Crowder are all proving to be the X Factor players of the postseason. When your 3rd best player (Dragic) is averaging the most points this postseason, and you’re still winning, you’re doing something right. These guys need to continue to get the ball and let them cook because Herro and Crowder are momentum players that feed off the energy that Miami produces so well. If Jimmy Butler is able to hop on that momentum as well, watch out.

For Miami to really give the Lakers a run for their money, two things need to happen. First, LeBron and AD need to be SHUT DOWN in at least one of these games. Like in Game 1 against the Rockets, the overall team defense by the Rockets was able to shut King James down. Miami was able to play Giannis super well, so you would expect them to be able to handle this.

Lastly, there is another monster in the front court that must be tamed. Bam Adebayo must play the defensive series of his life against Anthony Davis. Almost 29 pts a game on 57% from the field, 37% from 3 and 81% from the line are finals MVP type numbers. Bam, for as young as he is (23) has all the tools to really play well against Davis, as they share similar skill sets. If the Heat truly want to come away with this series, AD must be stopped.

Cementing Legacies

The Lakers this year have been a team that have been predicted to go to the finals since AD joined the Lakers in the summer of 2019. I personally was not one of these people, but I’ve been proven wrong. When I say cementing legacies I’m talking about the numerous vets on the Lakers that still have something to prove. Will Dwight Howard and AD get their first ring? Will Rondo and McGee be able to secure another ring to add to their resume. Finally, will Bron catch MJ in the GOAT conversation? To most of those questions, I think yes. (MJ fans you already know)

How to “Beat the Heat”

For the Lakers being the higher seed and having the best two players in the series, there is not as much that needs to be done on their end to secure a ring. That being said, this Miami team will NOT go down easy.

Continue to Play Like the Best Until You Become the Best

First, L.A. needs to pressure Miami from 3 and make them miss shots. The 3 pointer has proven to be an evident piece of this Miami playoff run, when they have only lost in games when their percentage from 3 has been really bad. Of the two teams, L.A. has actually posted the better defensive rating during the playoffs. If the Lakers can treat Miami like they treated Houston with their 3s, this series could be over in 5.

Second, the ball movement for the Lakers must be great throughout the series. This is because of that zone defense I mentioned earlier that Miami plays. If L.A. can keep Miami moving like the Celtics had them in game 5, they will create more open shots. Also, it definitely helps when you have one of the best passers of all time in LeBron on your side. He prides himself on getting his teammates open 3s, so guys like Rondo, KCP and Danny Green absolutely need to hit their shots.

Lastly, in order for L.A. to bring home a championship, their stars need to shine. I mean this is the NBA Finals for crying out loud, there is no holding back now. The stars, or ex stars need to play like a version of their old self in order to win. The crazy part about that is, some of these guys still have it. Dwight may win comeback player of the year, Rondo can shoot now (WTF) and LeBron is the MVP runner up in his 17th season, that’s just all unheard of.

My Take

Even though I am a person who will most likely root against LeBron, you have to respect greatness, even if you do not like it. Miami has a championship caliber team, but Iguodala is the only player on this team with finals experience. There are multiple guys on the Lakers who have been there and done that. Do not be surprised if Miami makes it interesting, but expect the Lakers to win in 6, MAYBE 7.

The NBA Finals begin tonight at 9pm EST., LFG.