Here we have a rematch of last year’s second-round matchup where the Heat upset the Bucks in five games in their cinderella run to the Finals. To a lot of people, this upset wasn’t as surprising as the Heat were simply a bad matchup for the Bucks… they had the necessary personnel to limit Antetokounmpo. However, there were plenty of other factors that to last year’s upset.
This is a new year though. Both teams are a bit different than when they met this time last season.
How The Bucks Got Here
The Bucks were pressed to make some roster changes as Giannis was entering the final year of his deal. Which for superstars practically means he’s a free agent on a rental contract. So, they made a splash and acquired Jrue Holiday from the Pelicans in exchange for Eric Bledsoe and some picks. Bledsoe had been pretty detrimental to Buck’s playoff runs with some woeful shooting. This trade gives them a better offensive player without sacrificing anything on defense. The one downside is that Holiday has always struggled with injury so the overall impact isn’t shown but he personally had a +9.2 net rating in the games he played and there quite a few instances where Giannis wasn’t playing. So while it seems like an equal swap on the surface, the huge jump in offensive production was what the Bucks were hoping for. If everyone is healthy, their defense is still borderline elite.
In addition to trading for Holiday, the Bucks added Bobby Portis, Jeff Teague, Bryn Forbes, and PJ Tucker. All to provide scoring depth and to spot start when one of the star players is out. The Bucks have always had good depth, but this year they have great depth. So, if Budenholzer continues to refuse to play his star players 40+ minutes in the playoffs he has a bench that is better equipped to handle that workload.
How The Bucks Win The Series
As mentioned, Budenholzer had a problem with letting his starters play more of the game. Giannis and Middleton averaged around 35 minutes the first three games in last year’s matchup. It wasn’t until Giannis got hurt and they were on the brink of elimination for Budenholzer to realize he should be playing more minutes. Games four and five Middleton played 48 minutes (OT) and 41 minutes. So, part of me is holding onto hope that Budenholzer has learned his lesson. If so, the Bucks should win this series and should be in the driver’s seat most of the way.
How The Heat Got Here
It has been a bumpy road for the defending Eastern Conference champs, but they seemed to have found their footing right as the season was ending. The Heat have probably been the most affected by COVID and injuries. Butler, Herro, and Dragic all missing a lot of time due to those factors. They tried to make a splash when they traded for Victor Oladipo from the Rockets, but only appeared in four games and is now out for the rest of the season. They also managed to get Trevor Ariza after Meyers Leonard’s live streaming incident.
The team heavily relied on Bam Adebayo, Andre Iguadala, and Duncan Robinson throughout the season as those were the only guys consistently available. As mentioned, they have found their footing as the season came to a close as they had won 12 of their last 16 games. Keeping them out of the play-in.
How The Heat Win The Series
It will have to be the same method as last year. Build a wall in front of the hoop and force Giannis to either pass or take a jump shot. They still have Adebayo and Butler, but they are missing Jae Crowder from last year who played a huge role during last year’s playoffs. They will have to replace his presence with either Iguodala or Ariza–two defensively slanted players.
Will that be enough to repeat the upset? Tyler Herro will also have to play much better than he had been for much of the season. He salvaged the season a bit ending the season shooting 50+% from three in the last nine games of the season, but before that had been a huge disappointment.
Series Prediction
In my opinion, the Bucks got better while the Heat got worse since their last playoff matchup. I still expect a competitive series between these two as the Heat still posses a lot of the pieces that nearly swept the Bucks last year. However, with the addition of Holiday and a plethora of scoring depth off the bench, I don’t think it will be quite as easy to take advantage of the Bucks when Giannis or Middleton isn’t on the floor.
Prediction: Bucks in 6
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