As we move to the western conference we find ourselves with another rematch from last year’s playoffs. The Clippers defeated the Mavericks in six games. However, much like the previous matchup discussed between the Heat and Bucks, there was a lot of change between these two.
With that being said, there are a lot of the same questions surrounding these teams in this particular matchup.
Can the Clippers stay healthy? Do the Mavericks have the firepower to pull off the upset?
How The Clippers Got Here
After blowing their second 3-1 lead in the Doc Rivers era, management decided it was time to change the head coach position. Promoting Ty Lue, who was an assistant coach the previous season. It remains to be seen how effective of a change that will be as it mainly meant to give them a better chance in the playoffs, seeing as Doc Rivers is responsible for 3 of the 13 instances where a team has blown a 3-1 series lead.
As far as the roster construction, they made some minor tweaks. Adding Serge Ibaka to replace Montrezl Harrell, with the main purpose to add more spacing on offense and better rim protection on defense. Also adding Nicolas Batum after he was bought out by Charolette, and has been an unsung hero for them as he has done a solid job spot-starting for Kawhi Leonard. They also traded for Rajon Rondo at the deadline for Lou Williams in order to add another strong ball-handler. Another move that allegedly will help them in the playoffs is “Playoff Rondo”. They also added DeMarcus Cousins, who surprisingly has been good defensively for them.
How The Clippers Win The Series
Much like last year, health will be a driving factor. Here’s a list of the main players and the number of games they missed:
- Kawhi Leonard: 20 games
- Paul George: 18 games
- Marcu Morris: 15 games
- Serge Ibaka: 31 games
- Patrick Beverly: 35 games
- Rajon Rondo: 8 games (out of 26 games w/Clippers)
- DeMarcus Cousins: 6 games (out of 22 w/Clippers)
As you can see, the injury report has been lengthy for the Clippers. However, there has been a lot of load management, so that they can as close to 100% for the playoffs as possible. So, if they are healthy–or close to it–they should be able to handle the Mavericks.
How the Mavericks Got Here
Like a few other teams, the Mavericks found their stride late in the season. Winning 11 out of their last 15 games to keep themselves out of the play-in. Luka had another strong season to keep them afloat, even during their season lows.
As far as the roster goes, they did not change all that much. They essentially swapped out Seth Curry for Josh Richardson and for the most part that was it. Part of the reason for their struggles this season is the health of Kristaps Porzingis. Last year missing 18 out of 75 games, to missing 29 out of 72 games. So, it’s hard to gain any sort of continuity when your co-star is constantly out of the lineup. In some positive news, Luka has been a much more reliable guy in the clutch this season. Going from a 45% TS and having a -5.9 net rating in 2019-20, to having a 57% TS and -1.1 net rating this season. Still room for improvement, but progress is progress.
How The Mavericks Win The Series
Like the Clippers, they need all of their guys. This is probably more important for the Mavericks since they are the inferior team at full strength. Aside from that Luka is going to have to carry this team. While role players need to step up, it’s really the stars that need to take their game to the next level. Luka needs to soundly outplay Kawhi and George in order for the Mavericks to pull off the upset.
Series Prediction
Last year this seemed like a bad matchup for the Mavericks and this year is no different. Especially this year where Porzingis’ health is far less reliable. They won’t have Seth Curry like last year, and if it weren’t for Luka having an amazing buzzer-beater in game 4 they would have lost in five games–as I predicted. This seems to have a similar fate.
Prediction: Clippers in 5
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