Whether you’ve won or lost most of your bankroll through the first two weekends of March Madness, I tried my best to give you a few last winners before the tournament ends. I know I could use them.
The Matchups
First, let’s focus on the teams. This final four is a blue blood invitational this year. Duke vs. North Carolina. Villanova vs. Kansas. After Coach K announced his retirement tour the Wisconsin fan in me was hoping for a crash and burn type season, but that didn’t happen. The sports romantic in me couldn’t help but be thankful that Duke’s struggles towards the end of the regular season have turned around on the biggest stage.
The Bets
Now that we’ve been over the teams, I think we can find value in the exact outcome with a little critical thinking and a teaspoon of our hearts. People are EATING UP the Coach K narrative of beating Kansas in the final since that’s who he beat for his first National Championship. It would be a Hollywood ending to an amazing career. That’s why I’m calling the bluff and placing the value on Duke to beat Villanova at +500 on FanDuel. It’s the 4th most likely outcome currently offered. People are going to call me crazy with the depth of Kansas and Justin Moore tearing his Achilles but, the public gave Nova no shot to even get to this point and now they have more motivation to play for an injured teammate. Call me a hopeless romantic, but a Coach K final send-off with a natty win over Jay Wright who is the obvious successor as the next dominant CBB coach in this next generation is a justifiable and valuable play.
The Players
Next, let’s take a look at the players. This is a much less romantic approach. Since 2010, you can see a very specific change in college basketball and especially when you look at the Most Outstanding Player award. If you go back to the last 10 awards, obviously excluding 2020, there have only been two forwards to win the award. The last big man to win it was Luke Hancock for Louisville in 2013. As a disclaimer, the award also goes to a player on the team that wins the national championship so keep that in mind before you go look at the list and see Brady Manek at +2000. Also be careful not to throw all your money on Paolo Banchero at +275. To me, there’s not a good enough big man left to win the award and I doubt they would win anyway unless Armando Bacot were to have 20 points and 20 rebounds like he did against St.Peter’s. So let’s focus on the guards.
Most Outstanding Player Picks
–Collin Gillespie +900 (Draft Kings)
–Jeremy Roach +2000 (DraftKings)
–Christian Braun +2500 (FD/DK)
Gillespie is going to be leaned on for offense with Moore, Nova’s second leading scorer going down. He can hit from three, score at the rim, and is one of the better passers in the country leading to a ton of assists and making big plays for Nova which they’ll need with essentially only 5 guys.
Jeremy Roach is the 2nd or 3rd scoring option for Duke. However, if the buckets don’t fall for Paolo they’re going to need him to step up. He’s had 15 in two of the four tournament games and if he’s able to hit an early three in the Final Four matchup or National Championship game, his confidence will grow, and that 12-15 could become 20+ in a hurry.
Lastly, another deep shot with Christian Braun. I absolutely LOVE the odds he’s got. As Remy Martin has established himself in the tournament and Kansas’ ability to go deep has also shown. Braun does average the 2nd most minutes for the Jayhawks. His 34 minutes per game is five full minutes ahead of the next guys in Jalen Wilson and Dajuan Harris. Braun is a fantastic athlete. He can run, jump, and shoot with anyone. Averaging a steal a game, almost a block a game, and 39% from three, Braun could find national attention this weekend.
Wrap-up
I do recognize that the 3 players I just gave you have very long odds. However, I just don’t see the value in a lot of the guys at the top of the board between being forwards or guys like Ochai Agbaji who has become a ghost in a few of the big games Kansas has played this year. I truly find value in these three plays and will be putting a half unit on each play.
Happy gambling!